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Improving the estimation of educational attainment: New methods for assessing average years of schooling from binned data.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The accurate measurement of educational attainment is of great importance for population research. Past studies measuring average years of schooling rely on strong assumptions to incorporate binned data. These assumptions, which we refer to as the standard duration method, have not been previously evaluated for bias or accuracy. METHODS:We assembled a database of 1,680 survey and census datasets, representing both binned and single-year education data. We developed two models that split bins of education into single year values. We evaluate our models, and compare them to the standard duration method, using out-of-sample predictive validity. RESULTS:Our results indicate that typical methods used to split bins of educational attainment introduce substantial error and bias into estimates of average years of schooling, as compared to new approaches. Globally, the standard duration method underestimates average years of schooling, with a median error of -0.47 years. This effect is especially pronounced in datasets with a smaller number of bins or higher true average attainment, leading to irregular error patterns between geographies and time periods. Both models we developed resulted in unbiased predictions of average years of schooling, with smaller average error than previous methods. We find that one approach using a metric of distance in space and time to identify training data, had the best performance, with a root mean squared error of mean attainment of 0.26 years, compared to 0.92 years for the standard duration algorithm. CONCLUSIONS:Education is a key social indicator and its accurate estimation should be a population research priority. The use of a space-time distance bin-splitting model drastically improved the estimation of average years of schooling from binned education data. We provide a detailed description of how to use the method and recommend that future studies estimating educational attainment across time or geographies use a similar approach.

SUBMITTER: Friedman J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6264843 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceUnited States primary school closures during the 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected millions of children, with little understanding of the potential health outcomes associated with educational disruption.ObjectiveTo estimate the potential years of life lost (YLL) associated with the COVID-19 pandemic conditioned on primary schools being closed or remaining open.Design, setting, and participantsThis decision analytical model estimated the association between school closures and reduced educational attainment and the association between reduced educational attainment and life expectancy using publicly available data sources, including data for 2020 from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US Social Security Administration, and the US Census Bureau. Direct COVID-19 mortality and potential increases in mortality that might have resulted if school opening led to increased transmission of COVID-19 were also estimated.Main outcomes and measuresYears of life lost.ResultsA total of 24.2 million children aged 5 to 11 years attended public schools that were closed during the 2020 pandemic, losing a median of 54 (interquartile range, 48-62.5) days of instruction. Missed instruction was associated with a mean loss of 0.31 (95% credible interval [CI], 0.10-0.65) years of final educational attainment for boys and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.06-0.46) years for girls. Summed across the population, an estimated 5.53 million (95% CI, 1.88-10.80) YLL may be associated with school closures. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a total of 88 241 US deaths from COVID-19 through the end of May 2020, with an estimated 1.50 million (95% CI, 1.23-1.85 million) YLL as a result. Had schools remained open, 1.47 million (95% credible interval, 0.45-2.59) additional YLL could have been expected as a result, based on results of studies associating school closure with decreased pandemic spread. Comparing the full distributions of estimated YLL under both "schools open" and "schools closed" conditions, the analysis observed a 98.1% probability that school opening would have been associated with a lower total YLL than school closure.Conclusions and relevanceIn this decision analytical model of years of life potentially lost under differing conditions of school closure, the analysis favored schools remaining open. Future decisions regarding school closures during the pandemic should consider the association between educational disruption and decreased expected lifespan and give greater weight to the potential outcomes of school closure on children's health.

Project description:ImportanceEducational attainment is the leading social determinant of health, but few studies of prevention programs have examined whether the programs are associated with educational attainment outcomes after the mid-20s, especially for large-scale programs that provide a longer duration of services.ObjectiveTo examine the association between a preschool to third grade intervention and educational attainment at midlife and differences by program duration, sex, and parental educational level.Design, setting, and participantsThis matched-group, alternative intervention study assessed 1539 low-income minority children born in 1979 or 1980 who grew up in high-poverty neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois. The comparison group included 550 children primarily from randomly selected schools participating in the usual early intervention. A total of 989 children who entered preschool in 1983 or 1984 and completed kindergarten in 1986 were included in the Chicago Longitudinal Study and were followed up for 27 to 30 years after the end of a multicomponent intervention. A total of 1398 participants (90.8%) in the original sample had educational attainment records at 35 years of age. The study was performed from January 1, 2002, through May 31, 2015.InterventionsThe Child-Parent Center Program provides school-based educational enrichment and comprehensive family services from preschool to third grade (ages 3-9 years).Main outcomes and measuresEducational outcomes from administrative records and self-report included school dropout, 4-year high school graduation, years of education, postsecondary credential, and earned degrees from associate's to master's or higher.ResultsA total of 1539 participants (mean [SD] age, 35.1 [0.32] years; 1423 [92.9%] black and 108 [7.1%] Hispanic) were included in the study. After weighting on 2 propensity scores, preschool participants had higher rates of postsecondary degree completion, including associate's degree or higher (15.7% vs 10.7%; difference, 5.0%; 95% CI, 1.0%-9.0%), master's degree (4.2% vs 1.5%; difference, 2.7%; 95% CI, 1.3%-4.1%), and years of education (12.81 vs 12.32; difference, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.20-0.77). Duration of participation showed a consistent linear association with outcomes. Compared with fewer years, preschool to second or third grade participation led to higher rates of associate's degree or higher (18.5% vs 12.5%; difference, 6.0%; 95% CI, 1.0%-11.0%), bachelor's degree (14.3% vs 8.2%; difference, 6.1%; 95% CI, 1.3%-10.9%), and master's degree or higher (5.9% vs 2.3%; difference, 3.6%; 95% CI, 1.4%-5.9%). The pattern of benefits was robust and favored male participants for high school graduation, female participants for college attainment, and those from lower-educated households.Conclusions and relevanceThis study indicates that an established early and continuing intervention is associated with higher midlife postsecondary attainment. Replication and extension of findings to other locations and populations should further strengthen confidence in the health benefits of large-scale preventive interventions.

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Improving the estimation of educational attainment: New methods for assessing average years of schooling from binned data.

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