Dataset Information

Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index.

ABSTRACT: The establishment of an effective policy response to rising heatwave impacts is most effective when the history of heatwaves, their current impacts and future risks, are mapped by a common metric. In response meteorological agencies aim to develop seamless climate, forecast, and warning heat impact services, spanning all temporal and spatial scales. The ability to diagnose heatwave severity using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) has allowed the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) to publicly release 7-day heatwave severity maps since 2014. National meteorological agencies in the UK and the United States are evaluating global 7-day and multi-week EHF heatwave severity probability forecasts, whilst the Bureau contributes to a Copernicus project to supply the health sector with global EHF severity heatwave projection scenarios. In an evaluation of impact skill within global forecast systems, EHF intensity and severity is reviewed as a predictor of human health impact, and extended using climate observations and human health data for sites around the globe. Heatwave intensity, determined by short and long-term temperature anomalies at each locality, is normalized to permit spatial analysis and inter-site comparison. Dimensionless heatwave event moments of peak severity and accumulated severity are shown to correlate with noteworthy events around the globe, offering new insights into current and future heatwave variability and vulnerability. The EHF severity metric permits the comparison of international heatwave events and their impacts, and is readily implemented within international heatwave early warning systems.

SUBMITTER: Nairn J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6265727 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index.

Nairn John J Ostendorf Bertram B Bi Peng P

International journal of environmental research and public health 20181108 11

The establishment of an effective policy response to rising heatwave impacts is most effective when the history of heatwaves, their current impacts and future risks, are mapped by a common metric. In response meteorological agencies aim to develop seamless climate, forecast, and warning heat impact services, spanning all temporal and spatial scales. The ability to diagnose heatwave severity using the Excess Heat Factor (<i>EHF</i>) has allowed the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) to ...[more]

PMID: 30413049

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Project description:PurposeThe Prostate Health Index is validated for prostate cancer detection but has not been well validated for Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer detection in Black men. We hypothesize that the Prostate Health Index has greater accuracy than prostate specific antigen for detection of Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer. We estimated probability of overall and Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer across previously established Prostate Health Index ranges and identified Prostate Health Index cutoffs that maximize specificity for Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer with sensitivity >90%.Materials and methodsWe recruited a "cancer-free" Black control cohort (135 patients) and a cohort of biopsy naïve Black men (158) biopsied for elevated prostate specific antigen. Descriptive statistics compared the prostate cancer cases and controls and the frequency of Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer across Prostate Health Index scores. Receiver operating characteristics compared the discrimination of prostate specific antigen, Prostate Health Index and other prostate specific antigen related biomarkers. Sensitivity and specificity for Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer detection were assessed at prostate specific antigen and Prostate Health Index thresholds alone and in series.ResultsOf biopsied subjects 32.9% had Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer. In Blacks with prostate specific antigen from 4.0-10.0 ng/ml, Prostate Health Index and prostate specific antigen had similar discrimination for Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer (0.63 vs 0.57, p=0.27). In Blacks with prostate specific antigen ≤10.0, a threshold of prostate specific antigen ≥4.0 had 90.4% sensitivity for Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer; a threshold of prostate specific antigen ≥4.0 with Prostate Health Index ≥35.0 in series avoided unnecessary biopsy in 33.0% of men but missed 17.3% of Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer. Prostate specific antigen ≥4.0 with Prostate Health Index ≥28.0 in series spared biopsy in 17.9%, while maintaining 90.4% sensitivity of Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer.ConclusionsThe Prostate Health Index has moderate accuracy in detecting Gleason grade group 2-5 prostate cancer in Blacks, but Prostate Health Index ≥28.0 can be safely used to avoid some unnecessary biopsies in Blacks.

Dataset Information

Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index.

Publications

Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index.

Similar Datasets

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