Dataset Information

Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

ABSTRACT: Super-spreading events have been observed in the transmission dynamics of many infectious diseases. The 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak in the Republic of Korea has also shown super-spreading events with a significantly high level of heterogeneity in generating secondary cases. It becomes critical to understand the mechanism for this high level of heterogeneity to develop effective intervention strategies and preventive plans for future emerging infectious diseases. In this regard, agent-based modeling is a useful tool for incorporating individual heterogeneity into the epidemic model. In the present work, a stochastic agent-based framework is developed in order to understand the underlying mechanism of heterogeneity. Clinical (i.e., an infectivity level) and social or environmental (i.e., a contact level) heterogeneity are modeled. These factors are incorporated in the transmission rate functions under assumptions that super-spreaders have stronger transmission and/or higher links. Our agent-based model has employed real MERS-CoV epidemic features based on the 2015 MERS-CoV epidemiological data. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out under various epidemic scenarios. Our findings highlight the roles of super-spreaders in a high level of heterogeneity, underscoring that the number of contacts combined with a higher level of infectivity are the most critical factors for substantial heterogeneity in generating secondary cases of the 2015 MERS-CoV transmission.

SUBMITTER: Kim Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6265857 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

Kim Yunhwan Y Ryu Hohyung H Lee Sunmi S

International journal of environmental research and public health 20181026 11

Super-spreading events have been observed in the transmission dynamics of many infectious diseases. The 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak in the Republic of Korea has also shown super-spreading events with a significantly high level of heterogeneity in generating secondary cases. It becomes critical to understand the mechanism for this high level of heterogeneity to develop effective intervention strategies and preventive plans for future emerging infectious diseases. In this regard, agent-based modeling i ...[more]

PMID: 30373151

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Project description:BackgroundIn current epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB), heterogeneity in infectiousness among TB patients is a challenge, which is not well studied. We aimed to quantify this heterogeneity and the presence of "super-spreading" events that can assist in designing optimal public health interventions.MethodsTB epidemiologic investigation data notified between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015 from Victoria, Australia were used to quantify TB patients' heterogeneity in infectiousness and super-spreading events. We fitted a negative binomial offspring distribution (NBD) for the number of secondary infections and secondary active TB disease each TB patient produced. The dispersion parameter, k, of the NBD measures the level of heterogeneity, where low values of k (e.g. k?<?1) indicate over-dispersion. Super-spreading was defined as patients causing as many or more secondary infections as the 99th centile of an equivalent homogeneous distribution. Contact infection was determined based on a tuberculin skin test (TST) result of ?10?mm. A NBD model was fitted to identify index characteristics that were associated with the number of contacts infected and risk ratios (RRs) were used to quantify the strength of this association.ResultsThere were 4190 (2312 pulmonary and 1878 extrapulmonary) index TB patients and 18,030 contacts. A total of 15,522 contacts were tested with TST, of whom 3213 had a result of ?10?mm. The dispersion parameter, k for secondary infections was estimated at 0.16 (95%CI 0.14-0.17) and there were 414 (9.9%) super-spreading events. From the 3213 secondary infections, 2415 (75.2%) were due to super-spreading events. There were 226 contacts who developed active TB disease and a higher level of heterogeneity was found for this outcome than for secondary infection, with k estimated at 0.036 (95%CI 0.025-0.046). In regression analyses, we found that infectiousness was greater among index patients found by clinical presentation and those with bacteriological confirmation.ConclusionTB transmission is highly over dispersed and super-spreading events are responsible for a substantial majority of secondary infections. Heterogeneity of transmission and super-spreading are critical issues to consider in the design of interventions and models of TB transmission dynamics.

Project description:BACKGROUND: In order to control malaria, it is important to understand the genetic structure of the parasites in each endemic area. Plasmodium vivax is widely distributed in the tropical to temperate regions of Asia and South America, but effective strategies for its elimination have yet to be designed. In South Korea, for example, indigenous vivax malaria was eliminated by the late 1970s, but re-emerged from 1993. We estimated the population structure and temporal dynamics of transmission of P. vivax in South Korea using microsatellite DNA markers. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed 255 South Korean P. vivax isolates collected from 1994 to 2008, based on 10 highly polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci of the P. vivax genome. Allelic data were obtained for the 87 isolates and their microsatellite haplotypes were determined based on a combination of allelic data of the loci. In total, 40 haplotypes were observed. There were two predominant haplotypes: H16 and H25. H16 was observed in 9 isolates (10%) from 1996 to 2005, and H25 in 27 (31%) from 1995 to 2003. These results suggested that the recombination rate of P. vivax in South Korea, a temperate country, was lower than in tropical areas where identical haplotypes were rarely seen in the following year. Next, we estimated the relationships among the 40 haplotypes by eBURST analysis. Two major groups were found: one composed of 36 isolates (41%) including H25; the other of 20 isolates (23%) including H16. Despite the low recombination rate, other new haplotypes that are genetically distinct from the 2 groups have also been observed since 1997 (H27). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggested a continual introduction of P. vivax from other population sources, probably North Korea. Molecular epidemiology using microsatellite DNA of the P. vivax population is effective for assessing the population structure and transmission dynamics of the parasites--information that can assist in the elimination of vivax malaria in endemic areas.

Dataset Information

Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

Publications

Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

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