Dataset Information

Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has encouraged countries to follow a set of guidelines to help them assess the need for mass drug administration and evaluate its progress. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of the highest priority countries in the Western Pacific for lymphatic filariasis and the site of extensive research on lymphatic filariasis and surveys of its prevalence. However, different diagnostic tests have been used and thresholds for each test are unclear.

Methods

We reviewed the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis reported in 295 surveys conducted in PNG between 1990 and 2014, of which 65 used more than one test. Results from different diagnostics were standardised using a set of criteria that included a model to predict antigen prevalence from microfilariae prevalence. We mapped the point location of each of these surveys and categorised their standardised prevalence estimates.

Results

Several predictive models were produced and investigated, including the effect of any mass drug administration and number of rounds prior to the surveys. One model was chosen based on goodness of fit parameters and used to predict antigen prevalence for surveys that tested only for microfilariae. Standardised prevalence values show that 72% of all surveys reported a prevalence above 0.05. High prevalence was situated on the coastal north, south and island regions, while the central highland area of Papua New Guinea shows low levels of prevalence.

Conclusions

Our study is the first to provide an explicit predictive relationship between the prevalence values based on empirical results from antigen and microfilaria tests, taking into account the occurrence of mass drug administration. This is a crucial step to combine studies to develop risk maps of lymphatic filariasis for programme planning and evaluation, as shown in the case of Papua New Guinea.

SUBMITTER: Berg Soto A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6280391 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys.

Berg Soto Alvaro A Xu Zhijing Z Wood Peter P Sanuku Nelly N Robinson Leanne J LJ King Christopher L CL Tisch Daniel D Susapu Melinda M Graves Patricia M PM

Tropical medicine and health 20181204

<h4>Background</h4>The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has encouraged countries to follow a set of guidelines to help them assess the need for mass drug administration and evaluate its progress. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of the highest priority countries in the Western Pacific for lymphatic filariasis and the site of extensive research on lymphatic filariasis and surveys of its prevalence. However, different diagnostic tests have been used and thresholds for each test are ...[more]

PMID: 30533996

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Project description:BackgroundAcute painful swelling of the extremities and scrotum are debilitating clinical manifestations of Wuchereria bancrofti infection. The ongoing global program to eliminate filariasis using mass drug administration is expected to decrease this and other forms of filarial morbidity in the future by preventing establishment of new infections as a consequence of eliminating transmission by the mosquito vector. We examined whether mass treatment with anti-filarial drugs has a more immediate health benefit by monitoring acute filariasis morbidity in Papua New Guinean communities that participated in a 5-year mass drug administration trial.Methodology/principal findingsWeekly active surveillance for acute filariasis morbidity defined by painful swelling of the extremities, scrotum and breast was performed 1 year before and each year after 4 annual mass administrations of anti-filarial drugs (16,480 person-years of observation). Acute morbidity events lasted <3 weeks in 92% of affected individuals and primarily involved the leg (74-79% of all annual events). The incidence for all communities considered together decreased from 0.39 per person-year in the pre-treatment year to 0.31, 0.15, 0.19 and 0.20 after each of 4 annual treatments (p<0.0001). Residents of communities with high pre-treatment transmission intensities (224-742 infective bites/person/year) experienced a greater reduction in acute morbidity (0.62 episodes per person-year pre-treatment vs. 0.30 in the 4(th) post-treatment year) than residents of communities with moderate pre-treatment transmission intensities (24-167 infective bites/person/year; 0.28 episodes per person-year pre-treatment vs. 0.16 in the 4(th) post-treatment year).ConclusionsMass administration of anti-filarial drugs results in immediate health benefit by decreasing the incidence of acute attacks of leg and arm swelling in people with pre-existing infection. Reduction in acute filariasis morbidity parallels decreased transmission intensity, suggesting that continuing exposure to infective mosquitoes is involved in the pathogenesis of acute filariasis morbidity.

Project description:BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted by the WHO for global eradication leading to the implementation of large scale intervention programs based on annual mass drug administrations (MDA) worldwide. Recent work has indicated that locality-specific bio-ecological complexities affecting parasite transmission may complicate the prediction of LF extinction endpoints, casting uncertainty on the achievement of this initiative. One source of difficulty is the limited quantity and quality of data used to parameterize models of parasite transmission, implying the important need to update initially-derived parameter values. Sequential analysis of longitudinal data following annual MDAs will also be important to gaining new understanding of the persistence dynamics of LF. Here, we apply a Bayesian statistical-dynamical modelling framework that enables assimilation of information in human infection data recorded from communities in Papua New Guinea that underwent annual MDAs, into our previously developed model of parasite transmission, in order to examine these questions in LF ecology and control.ResultsBiological parameters underlying transmission obtained by fitting the model to longitudinal data remained stable throughout the study period. This enabled us to reliably reconstruct the observed baseline data in each community. Endpoint estimates also showed little variation. However, the updating procedure showed a shift towards higher and less variable values for worm kill but not for any other drug-related parameters. An intriguing finding is that the stability in key biological parameters could be disrupted by a significant reduction in the vector biting rate prevailing in a locality.ConclusionsTemporal invariance of biological parameters in the face of intervention perturbations indicates a robust adaptation of LF transmission to local ecological conditions. The results imply that understanding the mechanisms that underlie locally adapted transmission dynamics will be integral to identifying points of system fragility, and thus countermeasures to reliably facilitate LF extinction both locally and globally.

Project description:BackgroundGlobal efforts to eliminate lymphatic filariasis are based on the annual mass administration of antifilarial drugs to reduce the microfilaria reservoir available to the mosquito vector. Insecticide-treated bed nets are being widely used in areas in which filariasis and malaria are coendemic.MethodsWe studied five villages in which five annual mass administrations of antifilarial drugs, which were completed in 1998, reduced the transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti, one of the nematodes that cause lymphatic filariasis. A total of 21,899 anopheles mosquitoes were collected for 26 months before and 11 to 36 months after bed nets treated with long-lasting insecticide were distributed in 2009. We evaluated the status of filarial infection and the presence of W. bancrofti DNA in anopheline mosquitoes before and after the introduction of insecticide-treated bed nets. We then used a model of population dynamics to estimate the probabilities of transmission cessation.ResultsVillage-specific rates of bites from anopheline mosquitoes ranged from 6.4 to 61.3 bites per person per day before the bed-net distribution and from 1.1 to 9.4 bites for 11 months after distribution (P<0.001). During the same period, the rate of detection of W. bancrofti in anopheline mosquitoes decreased from 1.8% to 0.4% (P=0.005), and the rate of detection of filarial DNA decreased from 19.4% to 14.9% (P=0.13). The annual transmission potential was 5 to 325 infective larvae inoculated per person per year before the bed-net distribution and 0 after the distribution. Among all five villages with a prevalence of microfilariae of 2 to 38%, the probability of transmission cessation increased from less than 1.0% before the bed-net distribution to a range of 4.9 to 95% in the 11 months after distribution.ConclusionsVector control with insecticide-treated bed nets is a valuable tool for W. bancrofti elimination in areas in which anopheline mosquitoes transmit the parasite. (Funded by the U.S. Public Health Service and the National Institutes of Health.).

Project description:BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) caused by Wuchereria bancrofti is present at high prevalence in some parts of Papua New Guinea. However, there has been no rigorous data-based representative assessment of nationwide prevalence of LF. The LF programme has been daunted by the scope of the problem, and progress on mass drug administration (MDA) has been slow and lacking in resources. METHODS: A systematic literature review identified LF surveys in Papua New Guinea between 1980 and 2011. Results were extracted by location, time period and test used (blood slide, immunochromatographic test (ICT) or Og4C3 ELISA) and combined by district. Three criteria schemes based on the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis guidelines, with modifications, were developed to classify and prioritize districts by prevalence level. Results of repeated surveys in the same sites were used to investigate the impact of MDA on LF prevalence over the time period. RESULTS: There were 312 distinct survey sites identified in 80 of the 89 districts over the 31-year period. The overall LF prevalence in the sites tested was estimated at 18.5 to 27.5% by blood slide for microfilariae (Mf), 10.1% to 12.9% by ICT and 45.4% to 48.8% by Og4C3. Biases in site selection towards areas with LF, and change in type of assay used, affected the prevalence estimates, but overall decline in prevalence over the time period was observed. Depending on the criteria used, 34 to 36 districts (population 2.7 to 2.9 million) were classed as high endemic (?5% prevalence), 15 to 25 districts (1.7 to 1.9 million) as low endemic (<5%) and 20 to 31 (1.3 to 2.2 million) as non-endemic. Nine districts (0.7 million) had no information. The strong impact of MDA, especially on microfilaria (Mf) prevalence, was noted in sites with repeat surveys. CONCLUSIONS: This analytical review of past surveys of LF in Papua New Guinea enables better estimation of the national burden, identifies gaps in knowledge, quantifies and locates the population at risk, and can be used to predict the likely impact of MDA and/or vector control. Better targeting of districts by level of prevalence will strengthen the control programme, facilitate monitoring of the disease trend and increase the likelihood of reaching the target of LF elimination by 2020.

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Project description:BackgroundPapua New Guinea (PNG) has a high burden of lymphatic filariasis (LF) caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, with an estimated 4.2 million people at risk of infection. A single co-administered dose of ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole (IDA) has been shown to have superior efficacy in sustained clearance of microfilariae compared to diethylcarbamazine and albendazole (DA) in small clinical trials. A community-based cluster-randomised trial of DA versus IDA was conducted to compare the safety and efficacy of IDA and DA for LF in a moderately endemic, treatment-naive area in PNG.MethodologyAll consenting, eligible residents of 24 villages in Bogia district, Madang Province, PNG were enrolled, screened for W. bancrofti antigenemia and microfilaria (Mf) and randomised to receive IDA (N = 2382) or DA (N = 2181) according to their village of residence. Adverse events (AE) were assessed by active follow-up for 2 days and passive follow-up for an additional 5 days. Antigen-positive participants were re-tested one year after MDA to assess treatment efficacy.Principal findingsOf the 4,563 participants enrolled, 96% were assessed for AEs within 2 days after treatment. The overall frequency of AEs were similar after either DA (18%) or IDA (20%) treatment. For those individuals with AEs, 87% were mild (Grade 1), 13% were moderate (Grade 2) and there were no Grade 3, Grade 4, or serious AEs (SAEs). The frequency of AEs was greater in Mf-positive than Mf-negative individuals receiving IDA (39% vs 20% p<0.001) and in Mf-positive participants treated with IDA (39%), compared to those treated with DA (24%, p = 0.023). One year after treatment, 64% (645/1013) of participants who were antigen-positive at baseline were re-screened and 74% of these participants (475/645) remained antigen positive. Clearance of Mf was achieved in 96% (52/54) of infected individuals in the IDA arm versus 84% (56/67) of infected individuals in the DA arm (relative risk (RR) 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.30; p = 0.019). Participants receiving DA treatment had a 4-fold higher likelihood of failing to clear Mf (RR 4.67 (95% CI: 1.05 to 20.67; p = 0.043). In the DA arm, a significant predictor of failure to clear was baseline Mf density (RR 1.54; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.88; p = 0.007).ConclusionIDA was well tolerated and more effective than DA for clearing Mf. Widespread use of this regimen could accelerate LF elimination in PNG.Trial registrationRegistration number NCT02899936; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02899936.

Dataset Information

Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys.

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