Dataset Information

Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Muzaffapur Demographic Surveillance Site: A Spatiotemporal Analysis.

ABSTRACT: In the Indian subcontinent, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has a strongly clustered distribution. The "index case approach" is promoted both for active case finding and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Uncertainty exists about the optimal radius. Buffer zones of 50-75 m around incident cases have been suggested for active case finding, for IRS the recommendation is to cover a radius of 500 m. Our aim was to establish optimal target areas both for IRS and for (re)active case finding. We plotted incident VL cases on a map per 6-month period (January-June or July-December) and drew buffers of 0 (same household), 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, and 500 m around these cases. We then recorded total population and numbers of VL cases diagnosed over the next 6-month period in each of these buffers and beyond. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using the population at more than 500 m from any case as reference category. There was a very strong degree of spatial clustering of VL with IRRs ranging from 45.2 (23.8-85.6) for those living in the same households to 14.6 (10.1-21.2) for those living within 75 m of a case diagnosed, during the previous period. Up to 500 m the IRR was still five times higher than that of the reference category. Our findings corroborate the rationale of screening not just household contacts but also those living within a perimeter of 50-75 m from an index case. For IRS, covering a perimeter of 500 m, appears to be a rational choice.

SUBMITTER: Hasker E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6283495 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Muzaffapur Demographic Surveillance Site: A Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Hasker Epco E Malaviya Paritosh P Cloots Kristien K Picado Albert A Singh Om Prakash OP Kansal Sangeeta S Boelaert Marleen M Sundar Shyam S

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20181201 6

In the Indian subcontinent, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has a strongly clustered distribution. The "index case approach" is promoted both for active case finding and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Uncertainty exists about the optimal radius. Buffer zones of 50-75 m around incident cases have been suggested for active case finding, for IRS the recommendation is to cover a radius of 500 m. Our aim was to establish optimal target areas both for IRS and for (re)active case finding. We plotted incid ...[more]

PMID: 30298812

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Project description:BackgroundAs of 2021, the National Kala-azar Elimination Programme (NKAEP) in India has achieved visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination (<1 case / 10,000 population/year per block) in 625 of the 633 endemic blocks (subdistricts) in four states. The programme needs to sustain this achievement and target interventions in the remaining blocks to achieve the WHO 2030 target of VL elimination as a public health problem. An effective tool to analyse programme data and predict/ forecast the spatial and temporal trends of VL incidence, elimination threshold, and risk of resurgence will be of use to the programme management at this juncture.Methodology/principal findingsWe employed spatiotemporal models incorporating environment, climatic and demographic factors as covariates to describe monthly VL cases for 8-years (2013-2020) in 491 and 27 endemic and non-endemic blocks of Bihar and Jharkhand states. We fitted 37 models of spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal interaction random effects with covariates to monthly VL cases for 6-years (2013-2018, training data) using Bayesian inference via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach. The best-fitting model was selected based on deviance information criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) and was validated with monthly cases for 2019-2020 (test data). The model could describe observed spatial and temporal patterns of VL incidence in the two states having widely differing incidence trajectories, with >93% and 99% coverage probability (proportion of observations falling inside 95% Bayesian credible interval for the predicted number of VL cases per month) during the training and testing periods. PIT (probability integral transform) histograms confirmed consistency between prediction and observation for the test period. Forecasting for 2021-2023 showed that the annual VL incidence is likely to exceed elimination threshold in 16-18 blocks in 4 districts of Jharkhand and 33-38 blocks in 10 districts of Bihar. The risk of VL in non-endemic neighbouring blocks of both Bihar and Jharkhand are less than 0.5 during the training and test periods, and for 2021-2023, the probability that the risk greater than 1 is negligible (P<0.1). Fitted model showed that VL occurrence was positively associated with mean temperature, minimum temperature, enhanced vegetation index, precipitation, and isothermality, and negatively with maximum temperature, land surface temperature, soil moisture and population density.Conclusions/significanceThe spatiotemporal model incorporating environmental, bioclimatic, and demographic factors demonstrated that the KAMIS database of the national programmme can be used for block level predictions of long-term spatial and temporal trends in VL incidence and risk of outbreak / resurgence in endemic and non-endemic settings. The database integrated with the modelling framework and a dashboard facility can facilitate such analysis and predictions. This could aid the programme to monitor progress of VL elimination at least one-year ahead, assess risk of resurgence or outbreak in post-elimination settings, and implement timely and targeted interventions or preventive measures so that the NKAEP meet the target of achieving elimination by 2030.

Project description:IntroductionPost-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a skin manifestation that is a late clinical outcome of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Its presentation is similar to leprosy, and the differential diagnosis is not always easy. In VL endemic rural areas of Bihar, India, both infectious diseases co-exist. This observational study aimed to determine the prevalence and distribution of both conditions in an area that had until recently been highly endemic for VL.MethodsWe conducted a door-to-door survey in an area that belongs to the Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) of Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India. Within the HDSS we selected the villages that had reported the highest numbers of VL cases in preceding years. All consenting household members were screened for skin conditions, and minor conditions were treated on the spot. Upon completion of screening activities at the level of a few villages, a dermatology clinic ("skin camp") was conducted to which suspect leprosy and PKDL patients and other patients with skin conditions requiring expert advice were referred. We studied the association between distance from an index case of leprosy and the probability of disease in the neighborhood by fitting a Poisson model.ResultsWe recorded a population of 33,319, out of which 25,686 (77.1%) were clinically screened. Participation in skin camps was excellent. Most common conditions were fungal infections, eczema, and scabies. There were three PKDL patients and 44 active leprosy patients, equivalent to a prevalence rate of leprosy of 17.1 per 10,000. Two out of three PKDL patients had a history of VL. Leprosy patients were widely spread across villages, but within villages, we found strong spatial clustering, with incidence rate ratios of 6.3 (95% C.I. 1.9-21.0) for household members and 3.6 (95% C.I. 1.3-10.2) for neighbors within 25 meters, with those living at more than 100 meters as the reference category.DiscussionEven in this previously highly VL endemic area, PKDL is a rare condition. Nevertheless, even a single case can trigger a new VL outbreak. Leprosy is also a rare disease, but current prevalence is over 17 times the elimination threshold proclaimed by WHO. Both diseases require continued surveillance. Active case finding for leprosy can be recommended among household members and close neighbors of leprosy patients but would not be feasible for entire populations. Periodic skin camps may be a feasible and affordable alternative.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or 'hotspots' of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007-2015. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations' threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1-5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5-86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5-14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of 'the poorest of the poor' and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination.

Project description:Introduction:To sustain the achievement of kala-azar elimination program (KEP), early detection and treatment of the visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases and associated modalities such as treatment failure (TF), relapse VL (RVL), and Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is the cornerstone. A predictive biomarker for VL development and related complications could also play a crucial role in curtailing disease incidence and transmission. Investigations to find a biomarker with prospective capabilities are, however, scarce. Using samples and known clinical outcomes generated within two previous longitudinal cohort studies, we aimed to determine if fluctuations in serum anti-rK39 antibody levels could provide such predictive value. Materials and Methods:Serum samples collected at four different time points (Baseline, 12, 18, and 24 months) from 16 patients who had developed VL within the monitoring period and 15 of their asymptomatic healthy controls counterparts were investigated. To investigate potential prediction of VL related complications, serum samples of 32 PKDL, 10 RVL, 07 TF, and 38 cured VL from a single dose AmBisome trial were analyzed. Of this second panel, all patients were monitored for 5 years and sera were collected at four time points (Baseline then 1, 6, and 12 months after treatment). The level of anti-rK39 antibodies in archived samples was measured by a semi-quantitative ELISA. Results:The mean antibody level was significantly higher in VL patients compared to their asymptomatic healthy counterparts at each time point. Likewise, we observed a trend toward elevations in antibody levels for PKDL, RVL, TF relative to the reducing levels observed in cured VL. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis found a promising predictive power of rK39 antibody levels to reveal progression from asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infection stage to VL, defined as 87.5% sensitive and 95% specific. Following treatment, rk39 antibody notably showed 100% sensitivity and 95% specificity in predicting TF. Conclusion:Our data indicate that the relative quantity of serum anti-rK39 antibody has promise within either a predictive or prognostic algorithm for VL and VL-related modalities. These could enable VL control programs to implement more effective measures to eliminate the disease. Further research is, however, imperative to standardize the rK39 antibody ELISA between sites prior to broader use.

Dataset Information

Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Muzaffapur Demographic Surveillance Site: A Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Publications

Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Muzaffapur Demographic Surveillance Site: A Spatiotemporal Analysis.

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