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Impact of total knee replacement practice: cost effectiveness analysis of data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

ABSTRACT: Objectives To evaluate the impact of total knee replacement on quality of life in people with knee osteoarthritis and to estimate associated differences in lifetime costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) according to use by level of symptoms.Design Marginal structural modeling and cost effectiveness analysis based on lifetime predictions for total knee replacement and death from population based cohort data.Setting Data from two studies-Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) and the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST)-within the US health system.Participants 4498 participants with or at high risk for knee osteoarthritis aged 45-79 from the OAI with no previous knee replacement (confirmed by baseline radiography) followed up for nine years. Validation cohort comprised 2907 patients from MOST with two year follow-up.Intervention Scenarios ranging from current practice, defined as total knee replacement practice as performed in the OAI (with procedural rates estimated by a prediction model), to practice limited to patients with severe symptoms to no surgery.Main outcome measures Generic (SF-12) and osteoarthritis specific quality of life measured over 96 months, model based QALYs, costs, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios over a lifetime horizon.Results In the OAI, total knee replacement showed improvements in quality of life with small absolute changes when averaged across levels of confounding variables: 1.70 (95% uncertainty interval 0.26 to 3.57) for SF-12 physical component summary (PCS); -10.69 (-13.39 to -8.01) for Western Ontario and McMaster Universities arthritis index (WOMAC); and 9.16 (6.35 to 12.49) for knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome score (KOOS) quality of life subscale. These improvements became larger with decreasing functional status at baseline. Provision of total knee replacement to patients with SF-12 PCS scores <35 was the optimal scenario given a cost effectiveness threshold of $200?000/QALY, with cost savings of $6974 ($5789 to $8269) and a minimal loss of 0.008 (-0.056 to 0.043) QALYs compared with current practice. These findings were reproduced among patients with knee osteoarthritis from the MOST cohort and were robust against various scenarios including increased rates of total knee replacement and mortality and inclusion of non-healthcare costs but were sensitive to increased deterioration in quality of life without surgery. In a threshold analysis, total knee replacement would become cost effective in patients with SF-12 PCS scores ?40 if the associated hospital admission costs fell below $14?000 given a cost effectiveness threshold of $200?000/QALY.Conclusion Current practice of total knee replacement as performed in a recent US cohort of patients with knee osteoarthritis had minimal effects on quality of life and QALYs at the group level. If the procedure were restricted to more severely affected patients, its effectiveness would rise, with practice becoming economically more attractive than its current use.

SUBMITTER: Ferket BS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6284324 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of total knee replacement practice: cost effectiveness analysis of data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

Ferket Bart S BS Feldman Zachary Z Zhou Jing J Oei Edwin H EH Bierma-Zeinstra Sita M A SM Mazumdar Madhu M

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20170328

Objectives To evaluate the impact of total knee replacement on quality of life in people with knee osteoarthritis and to estimate associated differences in lifetime costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) according to use by level of symptoms.Design Marginal structural modeling and cost effectiveness analysis based on lifetime predictions for total knee replacement and death from population based cohort data.Setting Data from two studies-Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) ...[more]

PMID: 28351833

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Project description:Background The methods for assessing knee osteoarthritis (OA) do not provide enough comprehensive information to make robust and accurate outcome predictions. Purpose To develop a deep learning (DL) prediction model for risk of OA progression by using knee radiographs in patients who underwent total knee replacement (TKR) and matched control patients who did not undergo TKR. Materials and Methods In this retrospective analysis that used data from the OA Initiative, a DL model on knee radiographs was developed to predict both the likelihood of a patient undergoing TKR within 9 years and Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade. Study participants included a case-control matched subcohort between 45 and 79 years. Patients were matched to control patients according to age, sex, ethnicity, and body mass index. The proposed model used a transfer learning approach based on the ResNet34 architecture with sevenfold nested cross-validation. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and conditional logistic regression assessed model performance for predicting probability and risk of TKR compared with clinical observations and two binary outcome prediction models on the basis of radiographic readings: KL grade and OA Research Society International (OARSI) grade. Results Evaluated were 728 participants including 324 patients (mean age, 64 years ± 8 [standard deviation]; 222 women) and 324 control patients (mean age, 64 years ± 8; 222 women). The prediction model based on DL achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85, 0.90), outperforming a baseline prediction model by using KL grade with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.77; P < .001). The risk for TKR increased with probability that a person will undergo TKR from the DL model (odds ratio [OR], 7.7; 95% CI: 2.3, 25; P < .001), KL grade (OR, 1.92; 95% CI: 1.17, 3.13; P = .009), and OARSI grade (OR, 1.20; 95% CI: 0.41, 3.50; P = .73). Conclusion The proposed deep learning model better predicted risk of total knee replacement in osteoarthritis than did binary outcome models by using standard grading systems. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Richardson in this issue.

Project description:Objectives Many UK primary care trusts have recently introduced eligibility criteria restricting total knee replacement (TKR) to patients with low pre-operative Oxford Knee Scores (OKS) to cut expenditure. We evaluate these criteria by assessing the cost-effectiveness of TKR compared with no knee replacement for patients with different baseline characteristics from an NHS perspective. Design The cost-effectiveness of TKR in different patient subgroups was assessed using regression analyses of patient-level data from the Knee Arthroplasty Trial, a large, pragmatic randomised trial comparing knee prostheses. Setting 34 UK hospitals. Participants 2131 osteoarthritis patients undergoing TKR. Interventions and outcome measures Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) observed in the Knee Arthroplasty Trial within 5 years of TKR were compared with conservative assumptions about the costs and outcomes that would have been accrued had TKR not been performed. Results On average, primary TKR and 5 years of subsequent care cost £7458 per patient (SD: £4058), and patients gained an average of 1.33 (SD: 1.43) QALYs. As a result, TKR cost £5623/QALY gained. Although costs and health outcomes varied with age and sex, TKR cost <£20 000/QALY gained for patients with American Society of Anaesthesiologists grades 1-2 who had baseline OKS <40 and for American Society of Anaesthesiologists grade 3 patients with OKS <35, even with highly conservative assumptions about costs and outcomes without TKR. Body mass index had no significant effect on costs or outcomes. Restricting TKR to patients with pre-operative OKS <27 would inappropriately deny a highly cost-effective treatment to >10 000 patients annually. Conclusions TKR is highly cost-effective for most current patients if the NHS is willing to pay £20 000-£30 000/QALY gained. At least 97% of TKR patients in England have more severe symptoms than the thresholds we have identified, suggesting that further rationing by OKS is probably unjustified. Trial registration number ISRCTN 45837371.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease with a substantial public health burden. Quantitative assessments of periarticular bone may be a biomarker capable of monitoring early disease progression. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether measures of periarticular bone associate with longitudinal structural progression. METHODS:We conducted a 12-18 months longitudinal study using the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Participants received knee dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), trabecular magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, and x-rays. Knee DXAs generated proximal tibial medial:lateral periarticular bone mineral density (paBMD) measures. Proximal tibial trabecular MR images were assessed for trabecular morphometry: apparent bone volume fraction (BVF), trabecular number, thickness, and spacing. Weight-bearing x-rays were assessed for medial tibiofemoral joint space narrowing (JSN). Chi-squared analyses assessed whether periarticular bone measures were predictive of worsening medial tibiofemoral JSN, adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. RESULTS:In all, 444 participants, mean age 64.2 ± 9.2 years, BMI 29.5 ± 4.6kg/m2, and 52% male at baseline. Medial JSN (radiographic progression) occurred in 40 participants (9%). Higher baseline medial:lateral paBMD, apparent BVF, trabecular number and thickness, and lower baseline and decreased trabecular spacing were all associated with more progression of JSN in the medial compartment. From lowest to highest baseline medial:lateral paBMD quartile groups, 2%, 5%, 11%, and 18% had medial JSN progression, respectively, between the 36- and 48-month visits, p-values = 0.001 and 0.002 unadjusted and adjusted. The rate of change in medial:lateral paBMD, apparent BVF, and spacing were associated with more medial JSN. For rate of medial:lateral paBMD change from lowest to highest quartile, the proportion of each group that experienced medial JSN progression were 5%, 5%, 11%, and 18%, with an unadjusted and adjusted p-value of 0.005. CONCLUSION:Baseline and most rates of periarticular bone change associate with knee OA structural progression, highlighting the close relationship between subchondral bone and JSN. Future studies should focus on developing these measures as predictive and pathophysiological biomarkers, and evaluating their deployment in clinical trials testing bone-targeted therapeutics.

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Impact of total knee replacement practice: cost effectiveness analysis of data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

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Impact of total knee replacement practice: cost effectiveness analysis of data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

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