Dataset Information

Long-Term Consequences of the Chernobyl Radioactive Fallout: An Exploration of the Aggregate Data.

ABSTRACT: Policy Points Policymakers should invest more on researching the long-term health effects of low-ionizing radiation exposure, as we are far from reaching a consensus on a topic that is of enormous importance for public health and safety. Public policies such as those limiting the import of contaminated food from areas hit by a radioactive disaster or those regulating the resident population's access to such areas should follow a precautionary approach. Neoplasm diagnosis and medical care should be designed in order to take into account the possible role of long-term, low-dose radiation exposure. Health care policies should provide effective screening and prevention strategies with a specific focus on the regions that were hit most severely by the Chernobyl nuclear fallout. Health care expenditure should be targeted, taking into account the geographical dispersion of the fallout in order to attenuate its possible effect on neoplasm incidence.

Context

This study investigates the association between the radioactive ¹³⁷ Cesium fallout originated by the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident and dispersed over Western Europe, as a result of a combination of radioactive cloud passage days and rainy days over a 10-day period, and long-term health patterns and related costs. Since the half-life of ¹³⁷ Cesium is 30.17 years, part of the radioactivity in the affected regions is still present today, and it is usually still detected in the food chain, although at lower concentration levels.

Methods

We match longitudinal data on neoplasm incidence over the time span 2000-2013 in a number of European regions not immediately adjacent to Chernobyl with the randomly distributed levels of cesium deposition after the nuclear disaster in order to assess whether we can detect an association with the long-term health effects on the European population through a random effects model.

Findings

Considering 3 levels of fallout deposition-low, medium, and high-hospital discharges after treatment for neoplasms are, respectively, 0.36, 0.44, and 0.98 discharges over 100 inhabitants higher compared to regions with no fallout, with the population average being around 1.7 hospital discharges by neoplasms over 100 inhabitants. We checked the robustness of our findings to a number of tests including a placebo simulation and different model specifications.

Conclusions

Radioactive fallout is positively associated with a higher incidence of hospital discharges after treatment for neoplasms almost 30 years after its release, with larger effects in regions where the radioactivity was more intense. Our estimates are comparable to the findings of the largest-scale study on the long-term health effects of continuous low levels of radiation exposure among workers in the nuclear industry and suggest that more research is needed on this topic, given its enormous importance for public health and safety.

SUBMITTER: Marino F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6287078 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Long-Term Consequences of the Chernobyl Radioactive Fallout: An Exploration of the Aggregate Data.

Marino Francesca F Nunziata Luca L

The Milbank quarterly 20181201 4

Policy Points Policymakers should invest more on researching the long-term health effects of low-ionizing radiation exposure, as we are far from reaching a consensus on a topic that is of enormous importance for public health and safety. Public policies such as those limiting the import of contaminated food from areas hit by a radioactive disaster or those regulating the resident population's access to such areas should follow a precautionary approach. Neoplasm diagnosis and medical care should ...[more]

PMID: 30537367

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Project description:Prenatal exposure to external radiation has been linked to growth retardation among atomic bomb survivors in adolescence. It is unclear from previous studies whether in utero exposure to internal radiation such as iodine-131 (I-131), which concentrates in the thyroid gland, has an effect on physical growth. We examined the associations between estimated thyroid gland dose from prenatal exposure to I-131 and self-reported height and weight in a cohort of 2,460 individuals exposed to radioactive fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident [mean I-131 dose = 72 (mGy)] and screened for thyroid diseases in adolescence. Using multivariable linear regression models, we estimated the mean differences in height, weight and body mass index (BMI) per unit increase in dose (100 mGy) in models adjusted for gender, age at examination, type of residence (rural/urban) and presence of thyroid disease diagnosed at screening. All of the adjustment factors as well as the trimester of exposure were evaluated as potential modifiers of the dose response. Overall, no significant dose response was found for height (P = 0.29), weight (P = 0.14) or BMI (P = 0.16). We found significant modification of the dose response for weight and BMI by presence/absence of thyroid disease (P = 0.02 and P = 0.03, respectively), but not for other factors. In individuals without thyroid disease (n = 1,856), there was a weak, significant association between I-131 thyroid dose and higher weight (210 g per 100 mGy, P = 0.02) or BMI (70 g/m² per 100 mGy, P = 0.02) that depended on individuals (n = 52) exposed to ≥500 mGy. In individuals with thyroid disease (n = 579, 67.4% with simple diffuse goiter) no significant association with I-131 for weight (P = 0.14) or BMI (P = 0.14) was found. These results do not support the hypothesis that in utero exposure to I-131 at levels experienced by a majority of study subjects may be associated with meaningful differences in adolescent anthropometry. However, additional studies are needed to clarify whether in utero exposure to I-131 at levels > = 500 mGy may be associated with increases in weight/BMI and to evaluate the confounding or modifying role of thyroid disease, past iodine deficiency, maternal and prenatal/postnatal factors.

Project description:The long-term renal consequences of kidney donation by a living donor are attracting increased appropriate interest. The overall evidence suggests that living kidney donors have survival similar to that of nondonors and that their risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is not increased. Previous studies have included relatively small numbers of donors and a brief follow-up period.We ascertained the vital status and lifetime risk of ESRD in 3698 kidney donors who donated kidneys during the period from 1963 through 2007; from 2003 through 2007, we also measured the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and urinary albumin excretion and assessed the prevalence of hypertension, general health status, and quality of life in 255 donors.The survival of kidney donors was similar to that of controls who were matched for age, sex, and race or ethnic group. ESRD developed in 11 donors, a rate of 180 cases per million persons per year, as compared with a rate of 268 per million per year in the general population. At a mean (+/-SD) of 12.2+/-9.2 years after donation, 85.5% of the subgroup of 255 donors had a GFR of 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) of body-surface area or higher, 32.1% had hypertension, and 12.7% had albuminuria. Older age and higher body-mass index, but not a longer time since donation, were associated with both a GFR that was lower than 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) and hypertension. A longer time since donation, however, was independently associated with albuminuria. Most donors had quality-of-life scores that were better than population norms, and the prevalence of coexisting conditions was similar to that among controls from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) who were matched for age, sex, race or ethnic group, and body-mass index.Survival and the risk of ESRD in carefully screened kidney donors appear to be similar to those in the general population. Most donors who were studied had a preserved GFR, normal albumin excretion, and an excellent quality of life.

Dataset Information

Long-Term Consequences of the Chernobyl Radioactive Fallout: An Exploration of the Aggregate Data.

Context

Methods

Findings

Conclusions

Publications

Long-Term Consequences of the Chernobyl Radioactive Fallout: An Exploration of the Aggregate Data.

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