Dataset Information

Statistical models of fecal coliform levels in Pacific Northwest estuaries for improved shellfish harvest area closure decision making.

ABSTRACT: There is a substantial need for tools that effectively predict spatial and temporal fecal pollution patterns in estuarine waters. In this study, statistical models of exceedances of shellfish fecal coliform (FC) water quality criteria were developed using a 10-year dataset of FC levels and environmental data. Performance (sensitivity, specificity, and predictive capacity) of five different types of models was tested (MLR regression, Tobit (censored) regression, Firth's binary logistic regression (BLR), classification trees, and mixed-effects regression) for each of three conditionally managed shellfish-harvesting areas in Tillamook Bay, Oregon (USA). The most influential variables were related to precipitation and river stage height in the wet season and wind and tidal-stage in the dry season. Classification tree and Firth's BLR approaches better explained exceedances of shellfish water quality standards than the current closure thresholds. Findings demonstrate the utility of statistical modeling approaches for improved management of shellfish harvesting waters.

SUBMITTER: Zimmer-Faust AG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6290359 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Statistical models of fecal coliform levels in Pacific Northwest estuaries for improved shellfish harvest area closure decision making.

Zimmer-Faust Amity G AG Brown Cheryl A CA Manderson Alex A

Marine pollution bulletin 20181022

There is a substantial need for tools that effectively predict spatial and temporal fecal pollution patterns in estuarine waters. In this study, statistical models of exceedances of shellfish fecal coliform (FC) water quality criteria were developed using a 10-year dataset of FC levels and environmental data. Performance (sensitivity, specificity, and predictive capacity) of five different types of models was tested (MLR regression, Tobit (censored) regression, Firth's binary logistic regression ...[more]

PMID: 30503445

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Project description:Vibrio spp. have been a persistent concern for coastal bivalve hatcheries, which are vulnerable to environmental pathogens in the seawater used for rearing larvae, yet the biogeochemical drivers of oyster-pathogenic Vibrio spp. in their planktonic state are poorly understood. Here, we present data tracking oyster-pathogenic Vibrio bacteria in Netarts Bay and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, USA, as well as in adjacent coastal waters and a local shellfish hatchery, through the 2015 upwelling season. Vibrio populations were quantified using a culture-independent approach of high-throughput Vibrio-specific 16S rRNA gene sequencing paired with droplet digital PCR, and abundances were analyzed in the context of local biogeochemistry. The most abundant putative pathogen in our samples was Vibrio coralliilyticus Environmental concentrations of total Vibrio spp. and V. coralliilyticus were highest in Netarts Bay sediment samples and higher in seawater from Netarts Bay than from nearshore coastal waters or Yaquina Bay. In Netarts Bay, the highest V. coralliilyticus concentrations were observed during low tide, and abundances increased throughout the summer. We hypothesize that the warm shallow waters in estuarine mudflats facilitate the local growth of the V. coralliilyticus pathogen. Samples from larval oyster tanks in Whiskey Creek Shellfish Hatchery, which uses seawater pumped directly from Netarts Bay, contained significantly lower total Vibrio species concentrations, but roughly similar V. coralliilyticus concentrations, than did the bay water, resulting in a 30-fold increase in the relative abundance of the V. coralliilyticus pathogen in hatchery tanks. This suggests that the V. coralliilyticus pathogen is able to grow or persist under hatchery conditions.IMPORTANCE It has been argued that oyster-pathogenic Vibrio spp. have contributed to recent mortality events in U.S. shellfish hatcheries (R. A. Elston, H. Hasegawa, K. L. Humphrey, I. K. Polyak, and C. Häse, Dis Aquat Organ 82:119-134, 2008, https://doi.org/10.3354/dao01982); however, these events are often sporadic and unpredictable. The success of hatcheries is critically linked to the chemical and biological composition of inflowing seawater resources; thus, it is pertinent to understand the biogeochemical drivers of oyster-pathogenic Vibrio spp. in their planktonic state. Here, we show that Netarts Bay, the location of a local hatchery, is enriched in oyster-pathogenic V. coralliilyticus compared to coastal seawater, and we hypothesize that conditions in tidal flats promote the local growth of this pathogen. Furthermore, V. coralliilyticus appears to persist in seawater pumped into the local hatchery. These results improve our understanding of the ecology and environmental controls of the V. coralliilyticus pathogen and could be used to improve future aquaculture efforts, as multiple stressors impact hatchery success.

Dataset Information

Statistical models of fecal coliform levels in Pacific Northwest estuaries for improved shellfish harvest area closure decision making.

Publications

Statistical models of fecal coliform levels in Pacific Northwest estuaries for improved shellfish harvest area closure decision making.

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