Dataset Information

Predicting 30-Day Pneumonia Readmissions Using Electronic Health Record Data.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Readmissions after hospitalization for pneumonia are common, but the few risk-prediction models have poor to modest predictive ability. Data routinely collected in the electronic health record (EHR) may improve prediction. OBJECTIVE:To develop pneumonia-specific readmission risk-prediction models using EHR data from the first day and from the entire hospital stay ("full stay"). DESIGN:Observational cohort study using stepwise-backward selection and cross-validation. SUBJECTS:Consecutive pneumonia hospitalizations from 6 diverse hospitals in north Texas from 2009-2010. MEASURES:All-cause nonelective 30-day readmissions, ascertained from 75 regional hospitals. RESULTS:Of 1463 patients, 13.6% were readmitted. The first-day pneumonia-specific model included sociodemographic factors, prior hospitalizations, thrombocytosis, and a modified pneumonia severity index; the full-stay model included disposition status, vital sign instabilities on discharge, and an updated pneumonia severity index calculated using values from the day of discharge as additional predictors. The full-stay pneumonia-specific model outperformed the first-day model (C statistic 0.731 vs 0.695; P = 0.02; net reclassification index = 0.08). Compared to a validated multi-condition readmission model, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services pneumonia model, and 2 commonly used pneumonia severity of illness scores, the full-stay pneumonia-specific model had better discrimination (C statistic range 0.604-0.681; P < 0.01 for all comparisons), predicted a broader range of risk, and better reclassified individuals by their true risk (net reclassification index range, 0.09-0.18). CONCLUSIONS:EHR data collected from the entire hospitalization can accurately predict readmission risk among patients hospitalized for pneumonia. This approach outperforms a first-day pneumonia-specific model, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services pneumonia model, and 2 commonly used pneumonia severity of illness scores. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2017;12:209-216.

SUBMITTER: Makam AN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6296251 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting 30-Day Pneumonia Readmissions Using Electronic Health Record Data.

Makam Anil N AN Nguyen Oanh Kieu OK Clark Christopher C Zhang Song S Xie Bin B Weinreich Mark M Mortensen Eric M EM Halm Ethan A EA

Journal of hospital medicine 20170401 4

<h4>Background</h4>Readmissions after hospitalization for pneumonia are common, but the few risk-prediction models have poor to modest predictive ability. Data routinely collected in the electronic health record (EHR) may improve prediction.<h4>Objective</h4>To develop pneumonia-specific readmission risk-prediction models using EHR data from the first day and from the entire hospital stay ("full stay").<h4>Design</h4>Observational cohort study using stepwise-backward selection and cross-validati ...[more]

PMID: 28411288

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Project description:ImportanceSecondary prevention interventions to reduce post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) can be aided by the early identification of high-risk individuals who would benefit from risk factor modification.ObjectiveTo develop and evaluate a predictive model to identify patients at increased risk of PSCI over 5 years using data easily accessible from electronic health records.DesignCohort study with patients enrolled between 2003-2016 with follow-up through 2022.SettingPrimary care practices affiliated with two academic medical centers.ParticipantsIndividuals 45 years or older, without prior stroke or prevalent cognitive impairment, with primary care visits and an incident ischemic stroke between 2003-2016 (development/internal validation cohort) or 2010-2022 (external validation cohort).ExposuresPredictors of PSCI were ascertained from the electronic health record.Main outcomeThe outcome was incident dementia/cognitive impairment within 5 years and beginning 3 months following stroke, ascertained using ICD-9/10 codes. For model variable selection, we considered potential predictors of PSCI and constructed 400 bootstrap samples with two-thirds of the model derivation sample. We ran 10-fold cross-validated Cox proportional hazards models using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Variables selected in >25% of samples were included.ResultsThe analysis included 332 incident diagnoses of PSCI in the development cohort (n=3,741), and 161 and 128 incident diagnoses in the internal (n=1,925) and external (n=2,237) validation cohorts. The c-statistic for predicting PSCI was 0.731 (95% CI: 0.694-0.768) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.681-0.766) in the external validation cohort. A risk score based on the beta coefficients of predictors from the development cohort stratified patients into low (0-7 points), intermediate (8-11 points), and high (12-35 points) risk groups. The hazard ratios for incident PSCI were significantly different by risk categories in internal (High, HR: 6.2, 95% CI 4.1-9.3; Intermediate, HR 2.7, 95% CI: 1.8-4.1) and external (High, HR: 6.1, 95% CI: 3.9-9.6; Intermediate, HR 2.8, 95% CI: 1.9-4.3) validation cohorts.Conclusions and relevanceFive-year risk of PSCI can be accurately predicted using routinely collected data. Model output can be used to risk stratify and identify individuals at increased risk for PSCI for preventive efforts.

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Dataset Information

Predicting 30-Day Pneumonia Readmissions Using Electronic Health Record Data.

Publications

Predicting 30-Day Pneumonia Readmissions Using Electronic Health Record Data.

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