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Estimating severity of influenza epidemics from severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in intensive care units.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:While influenza-like-illness (ILI) surveillance is well-organized at primary care level in Europe, few data are available on more severe cases. With retrospective data from intensive care units (ICU) we aim to fill this current knowledge gap. Using multiple parameters proposed by the World Health Organization we estimate the burden of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in the ICU and how this varies between influenza epidemics. METHODS:We analyzed weekly ICU admissions in the Netherlands (2007-2016) from the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) quality registry (100% coverage of adult ICUs in 2016; population size 14 million) to calculate SARI incidence, SARI peak levels, ICU SARI mortality, SARI mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score, and the ICU SARI/ILI ratio. These parameters were calculated both yearly and per separate influenza epidemic (defined epidemic weeks). A SARI syndrome was defined as admission diagnosis being any of six pneumonia or pulmonary sepsis codes in the APACHE IV prognostic model. Influenza epidemic periods were retrieved from primary care sentinel influenza surveillance data. RESULTS:Annually, an average of 13% of medical admissions to adult ICUs were for a SARI but varied widely between weeks (minimum 5% to maximum 25% per week). Admissions for bacterial pneumonia (59%) and pulmonary sepsis (25%) contributed most to ICU SARI. Between the eight different influenza epidemics under study, the value of each of the severity parameters varied. Per parameter the minimum and maximum of those eight values were as follows: ICU SARI incidence 558-2400 cumulated admissions nationwide, rate 0.40-1.71/10,000 inhabitants; average APACHE score 71-78; ICU SARI mortality 13-20%; ICU SARI/ILI ratio 8-17 cases per 1000 expected medically attended ILI in primary care); peak-incidence 101-188 ICU SARI admissions in highest-incidence week, rate 0.07-0.13/10,000 population). CONCLUSIONS:In the ICU there is great variation between the yearly influenza epidemic periods in terms of different influenza severity parameters. The parameters also complement each other by reflecting different aspects of severity. Prospective syndromic ICU SARI surveillance, as proposed by the World Health Organization, thereby would provide insight into the severity of ongoing influenza epidemics, which differ from season to season.

SUBMITTER: van Asten L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6299979 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundTo date, estimating the burden of seasonal influenza on the hospital system in France has been restricted to influenza diagnoses in patients (estimated hospitalization rate of 35/100,000 on average from 2012 to 2018). However, many hospitalizations for diagnosed respiratory infections (e.g. pneumonia, acute bronchitis) occur without concurrent screening for virological influenza, especially in the elderly. Specifically, we aimed to estimate the burden of influenza on the French hospital system by examining the proportion of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) attributable to influenza.MethodsUsing French national hospital discharge data from 1/7/2012 to 30/6/2018, we extracted SARI hospitalizations with ICD-10 codes J09-J11 (influenza codes) in main or associated diagnoses, and J12-J20 (pneumonia and bronchitis codes) in main diagnoses. We estimated influenza-attributable SARI hospitalizations during influenza epidemics, as the number of influenza-coded hospitalizations plus the influenza-attributable number of pneumonia- and acute bronchitis-coded hospitalizations using periodic regression and generalized linear models. Additional analyses stratified by age group, diagnostic category (pneumonia and bronchitis), and region of hospitalization were performed using the periodic regression model only.ResultsThe average estimated hospitalization rate of influenza-attributable SARI during the five annual influenza epidemics covered (2013-2014 to 2017-2018) was 60/100,000 with the periodic regression model, and 64/100,000 with the generalized linear model. Over the six epidemics (2012-2013 to 2017-2018), of the 533,456 SARI hospitalizations identified, an estimated 227,154 were influenza-attributable (43%). Fifty-six percent of cases were diagnosed with influenza, 33% pneumonia, and 11% bronchitis. Diagnoses varied between age groups: 11% of patients under 15 years old had pneumonia versus 41% of patients aged 65 and older.ConclusionCompared to influenza surveillance in France to date, analyzing excess SARI hospitalizations provided a much larger estimate of the burden of influenza on the hospital system. This approach was more representative and allowed the burden to be assessed according to age group and region. The emergence of SARS-Cov-2 has led to a change in the dynamics of winter respiratory epidemics. The co-circulation of the three current major respiratory viruses (influenza, SARS-Cov-2, and RSV) and the evolution of diagnostic confirmation practices must now be taken into account when analyzing SARI.

Project description:PURPOSE: The rate of severe outcomes of patients with 2009 pandemic (A/H1N1) influenza (2009pI) hospitalized in non-intensive care units (ICUs) has not been defined thus far. This study aims to assess the efficacy of the management of patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) of moderate intermediate severity in an infectious diseases unit (IDU) during the first wave of 2009pI and its influence on the burden of ICUs. METHODS: All patients hospitalized from October 27, 2009, to February 5, 2010, with ILI were included in this prospective observational study. The IDU was organized and the staff was trained to provide intermediate care; patients were transferred to the ICU only if they required invasive ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or advanced cardiovascular support. Demographic data, clinical presentation, coexisting medical conditions, and laboratory and radiological findings were recorded and analyzed, as well as treatment and outcome data. RESULTS: Overall, 108 patients (median age 36 years [IQR 27-54], 57.4% males) including 66.7% with ≥ 1 risk factor for severe influenza, 47.2% with confirmed 2009pI by RT-PCR and 63.9% with pneumonia, were enrolled in the study. All subjects received intravenous fluids and 83.3% were administered oseltamivir, 96.3% antibacterials, 19.4% oxygen therapy without ventilatory support, and 10.2% non-invasive ventilation. A total of 106 (98.1%) subjects were discharged after a 6-day median hospital stay [IQR 4-9]. Two patients (1.9%) were transferred to the ICU. There were no deaths. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the aggressive treatment of patients with moderate intermediate severity 2009 pandemic ILI in non-ICU wards may result in a low rate of severe outcomes and brief hospitalization. IDUs, if properly organized for intermediate care, may efficiently provide correct disease management, in addition to complying with infection control requirements, thus reducing the burden of the pandemic on ICUs. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the outcome of patients with moderate intermediate 2009pI in different non-ICU settings.

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Estimating severity of influenza epidemics from severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in intensive care units.

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