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Predictors of male circumcision incidence in a traditionally non-circumcising South African population-based cohort.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Voluntary medical male circumcision has been promoted in high HIV prevalence settings to prevent HIV acquisition in males. However, the uptake of circumcision in many sub-Saharan African settings remains low. While many studies have measured circumcision prevalence, understanding circumcision incidence and its predictors is vital to achieving ambitious circumcision prevalence targets. SETTING:Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS:We measured circumcision incidence over the period 2009-2014 in a longitudinal population-based cohort with high HIV prevalence and low circumcision prevalence. Multivariable survival models with Weibull distributions were used to assess socio-demographic, behavioral and biological predictors of circumcision incidence. RESULTS:Between 2009 and 2014, circumcision prevalence among males 15-49 years in the cohort increased from 3% to 24%. Among 6,203 males 15-49 years, 873 new circumcisions occurred over 13,678 person-years (incidence rate: 6.4/100 person-years, 95% CI 6.0-6.8). Circumcision incidence was substantially higher amongst young males: 15-19 year olds were twice as likely to circumcise as older males. In the survival model, shorter household distance to the nearest healthcare facility, knowledge of HIV status and biological HIV-negative status were associated with an increased likelihood of circumcision incidence. CONCLUSIONS:Circumcision prevalence among males in rural KwaZulu-Natal remains well below South Africa's national 80% coverage target across age groups. In this population, distance to the nearest healthcare facility and knowledge of HIV status were important independent predictors of circumcision incidence. Mobile circumcision clinics and innovative HIV testing services may be important tools to help achieve circumcision targets.

SUBMITTER: Ortblad KF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6300268 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of male circumcision incidence in a traditionally non-circumcising South African population-based cohort.

Ortblad Katrina F KF Bärnighausen Till T Chimbindi Natsayi N Masters Samuel H SH Salomon Joshua A JA Harling Guy G

PloS one 20181219 12

<h4>Background</h4>Voluntary medical male circumcision has been promoted in high HIV prevalence settings to prevent HIV acquisition in males. However, the uptake of circumcision in many sub-Saharan African settings remains low. While many studies have measured circumcision prevalence, understanding circumcision incidence and its predictors is vital to achieving ambitious circumcision prevalence targets.<h4>Setting</h4>Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.<h4>Methods</h4>We measured circumcision inc ...[more]

PMID: 30566506

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Project description:BackgroundConsistent with observational studies, a randomized controlled intervention trial of adult male circumcision (MC) conducted in the general population in Orange Farm (OF) (Gauteng Province, South Africa) demonstrated a protective effect against HIV acquisition of 60%. The objective of this study is to present the first cost-effectiveness analysis of the use of MC as an intervention to reduce the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.Methods and findingsCost-effectiveness was modeled for 1,000 MCs done within a general adult male population. Intervention costs included performing MC and treatment of adverse events. HIV prevalence was estimated from published estimates and incidence among susceptible subjects calculated assuming a steady-state epidemic. Effectiveness was defined as the number of HIV infections averted (HIA), which was estimated by dynamically projecting over 20 years the reduction in HIV incidence observed in the OF trial, including secondary transmission to women. Net savings were calculated with adjustment for the averted lifetime duration cost of HIV treatment. Sensitivity analyses examined the effects of input uncertainty and program coverage. All results were discounted to the present at 3% per year. For Gauteng Province, assuming full coverage of the MC intervention, with a 2005 adult male prevalence of 25.6%, 1,000 circumcisions would avert an estimated 308 (80% CI 189-428) infections over 20 years. The cost is 181 dollars (80% CI 117-306 dollars) per HIA, and net savings are 2.4 million dollars (80% CI 1.3 million to 3.6 million dollars). Cost-effectiveness is sensitive to the costs of MC and of averted HIV treatment, the protective effect of MC, and HIV prevalence. With an HIV prevalence of 8.4%, the cost per HIA is 551 dollars (80% CI 344-1,071 dollars) and net savings are 753,000 (80% CI 0.3 million to 1.2 million dollars). Cost-effectiveness improves by less than 10% when MC intervention coverage is 50% of full coverage.ConclusionsIn settings in sub-Saharan Africa with high or moderate HIV prevalence among the general population, adult MC is likely to be a cost-effective HIV prevention strategy, even when it has a low coverage. MC generates large net savings after adjustment for averted HIV medical costs.

Project description:BackgroundTo investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision.MethodsFrom 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents) aged 0-64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme.ResultsCurrently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14-29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14-16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17-19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7%) had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14-16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than information obtained from person to person by oral communication. Within the uncircumcised population, the prior knowledge was far greater, suggesting that information discouraging circumcision played an important role.ConclusionSouth Korean male circumcision is likely to be undergoing a steep decline. The cause for this decline seems to be the increase in information available on the pros and cons of circumcision.

Project description:Globally, South Africa hosts the highest number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the unique legacy of internal labour migration continues to be a major driver of the regional epidemic, interrupting treatment-as-prevention efforts. The study examined levels, trends, and predictors of migration in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, using population-based surveillance data from 2005 through 2017. We followed 69 604 adult participants aged 15-49 years and recorded their migration events (i.e., out-migration from the surveillance area) in 423 038 person-years over 525 397 observations. Multiple failure Cox-regression models were used to measure the risk of migration by socio-demographic factors: age, sex, educational status, marital status, HIV, and community antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Overall, 69% of the population cohort experienced at least one migration event during the follow-up period. The average incidence rate of migration was 9.96 events and 13.23 events per 100 person-years in women and men, respectively. Migration rates declined from 2005 to 2008 then peaked in 2012 for both women and men. Adjusting for other covariates, the risk of migration was 3.4-times higher among young women aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] = 3.37, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 3:19-3.57), and 2.9-times higher among young men aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (aHR = 2.86, 95% CI:2.69-3.04). There was a 9% and 27% decrease in risk of migration among both women (aHR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83 - 0.99) and men (aHR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.66 - 0.82) respectively per every 1% increase in community ART coverage. Young unmarried women including those living with HIV, migrated at a magnitude similar to that of their male counterparts, and lowered as ART coverage increased over time, reflecting the role of improved HIV services across space in reducing out-migration. A deeper understanding of the characteristics of a migrating population provides critical information towards identifying and addressing gaps in the HIV prevention and care continuum in an era of high mobility.

Project description:Many national antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes encourage providers to identify and address baseline factors associated with poor treatment outcomes, including modifiable adherence-related behaviours, before initiating ART. However, evidence on such predictors is scarce, and providers judgement may often be inaccurate. To help address this evidence gap, this observational cohort study examined baseline factors potentially predictive of poor treatment outcomes in two ART programmes in South Africa, with a particular focus on determinants of adherence.Treatment-naïve patients starting ART were enrolled from a community and a workplace ART programme. Potential baseline predictors associated with poor treatment outcomes (defined as viral load > 400 copies/ml or having discontinued treatment by six months) were assessed using logistic regression. Exposure variables were organised for regression analysis using a hierarchical framework.38/227 (17%) of participants in the community had poor treatment outcomes compared to 47/117 (40%) in the workplace. In the community, predictors of worse outcomes included: drinking more than 20 units of alcohol per week, having no prior experience of chronic medications, and consulting a traditional healer in the past year (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 15.36, 95% CI 3.22-73.27; aOR 2.30, 95%CI 1.00-5.30; aOR 2.27, 95% CI 1.00-5.19 respectively). Being male and knowing someone on ART were associated with better outcomes (aOR 0.25, 95%CI 0.09-0.74; aOR 0.44, 95%CI 0.19-1.01 respectively). In the workplace, predictors of poor treatment outcomes included being uncertain about the health effects of ART and a traditional healer's ability to treat HIV (aOR 7.53, 95%CI 2.02-27.98; aOR 4.40, 95%CI 1.41-13.75 respectively). Longer pre-ART waiting time (2-12 weeks compared to <2 weeks) predicted better treatment outcomes (aOR 0.13, 95% CI 0.03-0.56).Baseline predictors of poor treatment outcomes were largely unique to each programme, likely reflecting different populations and pathways to HIV care. In the workplace, active promotion of HIV testing may have extended ART to individuals who, without provider initiation, would not have spontaneously sought care. As provider-initiated testing makes ART available to individuals less motivated to seek care, patients may need additional adherence support, especially addressing uncertainty about the health benefits of ART.

Dataset Information

Predictors of male circumcision incidence in a traditionally non-circumcising South African population-based cohort.

Publications

Predictors of male circumcision incidence in a traditionally non-circumcising South African population-based cohort.

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