Dataset Information

Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands.

ABSTRACT: Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km² in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km²) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently -1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km²) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km² (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries.

SUBMITTER: Su J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6303720 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands.

Su Junhu J Aryal Achyut A Hegab Ibrahim M IM Shrestha Uttam Babu UB Coogan Sean C P SCP Sathyakumar Sambandam S Dalannast Munkhnast M Dou Zhigang Z Suo Yila Y Dabu Xilite X Fu Hongyan H Wu Liji L Ji Weihong W

Ecology and evolution 20181120 23

Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km2 in the study area, the majority o ...[more]

PMID: 30598784

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Project description:Winter recreation and tourism continue to expand worldwide, and where these activities overlap with valuable wildlife habitat, there is greater potential for conservation concerns. Wildlife populations can be particularly vulnerable to disturbance in alpine habitats as helicopters and snowmachines are increasingly used to access remote backcountry terrain. Brown bears (Ursus arctos) have adapted hibernation strategies to survive this period when resources and energy reserves are limited, and disturbance could negatively impact fitness and survival. To help identify areas of potential conflict between helicopter skiing and denning brown bears in Alaska, we developed a model to predict alpine denning habitat and an associated data-based framework for mitigating disturbance activities. Following den emergence in spring, we conducted three annual aerial surveys (2015-2017) and used locations from three GPS-collared bears (2008-2014) to identify 89 brown bear dens above the forest line. We evaluated brown bear den site selection of land cover, terrain, and climate factors using resource selection function (RSF) models. Our top model supported the hypothesis that bears selected dens based on terrain and climate factors that maximized thermal efficiency. Brown bears selected den sites characterized by steep slopes at moderate elevations in smooth, well-drained topographies that promoted vegetation and deep snow. We used the RSF model to map relative probability of den selection and found 85% of dens occurred within terrain predicted as prime denning habitat. Brown bear exposure to helicopter disturbance was evident as moderate to high intensities of helicopter flight tracking data overlapped prime denning habitat, and we quantified where the risk of these impact was greatest. We also documented evidence of late season den abandonment due to disturbance from helicopter skiing. The results from this study provide valuable insights into bear denning habitat requirements in subalpine and alpine landscapes. Our quantitative framework can be used to support conservation planning for winter recreation industries operating in habitats occupied by denning brown bears.

Dataset Information

Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands.

Publications

Decreasing brown bear (<i>Ursus arctos</i>) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands.

Similar Datasets

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