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Estimating the public health impact of disbanding a government alcohol monopoly: application of new methods to the case of Sweden.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Government alcohol monopolies were created in North America and Scandinavia to limit health and social problems. The Swedish monopoly, Systembolaget, reports to a health ministry and controls the sale of all alcoholic beverages with >?3.5% alcohol/volume for off-premise consumption, within a public health mandate. Elsewhere, alcohol monopolies are being dismantled with evidence of increased consumption and harms. We describe innovative modelling techniques to estimate health outcomes in scenarios involving Systembolaget being replaced by 1) privately owned liquor stores, or 2) alcohol sales in grocery stores. The methods employed can be applied in other jurisdictions and for other policy changes. METHODS:Impacts of the privatisation scenarios on pricing, outlet density, trading hours, advertising and marketing were estimated based on Swedish expert opinion and published evidence. Systematic reviews were conducted to estimate impacts on alcohol consumption in each scenario. Two methods were applied to estimate harm impacts: (i) alcohol attributable morbidity and mortality were estimated utilising the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP); (ii) ARIMA methods to estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and specific types of alcohol-related mortality and crime. RESULTS:Replacing government stores with private liquor stores (Scenario 1) led to a 20.0% (95% CI, 15.3-24.7) increase in per capita consumption. Replacement with grocery stores (Scenario 2) led to a 31.2% (25.1-37.3%) increase. With InterMAHP there were 763 or?+?47% (35-59%) and 1234 or?+?76% (60-92%) more deaths per year, for Scenarios 1 and 2 respectively. With ARIMA, there were 850 (334-1444) more deaths per year in Scenario 1 and 1418 more in Scenario 2 (543-2505). InterMAHP also estimated 10,859 or?+?29% (22-34%) and 16,118 or?+?42% (35-49%) additional hospital stays per year respectively. CONCLUSIONS:There would be substantial adverse consequences for public health and safety were Systembolaget to be privatised. We demonstrate a new combined approach for estimating the impact of alcohol policies on consumption and, using two alternative methods, alcohol-attributable harm. This approach could be readily adapted to other policies and settings. We note the limitation that some significant sources of uncertainty in the estimates of harm impacts were not modelled.

SUBMITTER: Stockwell T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6303908 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating the public health impact of disbanding a government alcohol monopoly: application of new methods to the case of Sweden.

Stockwell Tim T Sherk Adam A Norström Thor T Angus Colin C Ramstedt Mats M Andréasson Sven S Chikritzhs Tanya T Gripenberg Johanna J Holder Harold H Holmes John J Mäkelä Pia P

BMC public health 20181222 1

<h4>Background</h4>Government alcohol monopolies were created in North America and Scandinavia to limit health and social problems. The Swedish monopoly, Systembolaget, reports to a health ministry and controls the sale of all alcoholic beverages with > 3.5% alcohol/volume for off-premise consumption, within a public health mandate. Elsewhere, alcohol monopolies are being dismantled with evidence of increased consumption and harms. We describe innovative modelling techniques to estimate health o ...[more]

PMID: 30577827

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Public health in England has opportunities to reduce alcohol-related harms via shaping the availability and accessibility of alcohol through the licensing function in local government. While the constraints of licensing legislation have been recognised, what is currently little understood are the day-to-day realities of how public health practitioners enact the licensing role, and how they can influence the local alcohol environment. METHODS:To address this, a mixed-methods study was conducted across 24 local authorities in Greater London between 2016 and 17. Data collection involved ethnographic observation of public health practitioners' alcohol licensing work (in eight local authorities); a survey of public health practitioners (n =?18); interviews with licensing stakeholders (n =?10); and analysis of public health licensing data from five local authorities. Fieldnotes and interview transcripts were analysed thematically, and quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS:Results indicated that some public health teams struggle to justify the resources required to engage with licensing processes when they perceive little capacity to influence licensing decisions. Other public health teams consider the licensing role as important for shaping the local alcohol environment, and also as a strategic approach for positioning public health within the council. Practitioners use different processes to assess the potential risks of licence applications but also the potential strengths of their objections, to determine when and how actions should be taken. Identifying the direct influence of public health on individual licences is challenging, but the study revealed how practitioners did achieve some level of impact, for example through negotiation with applicants. CONCLUSIONS:This study shows public health impact following alcohol licensing work is difficult to measure in terms of reducing alcohol-related harms, which poses challenges for justifying this work amid resource constraints. However, there is potential added value of the licensing role in strategic positioning of public health in local government to influence broader determinants of health.

Project description:BackgroundA wide range of rare diseases can have fiscal impacts on government finances that extend beyond expected healthcare costs. Conditions preventing people from achieving national lifetime work averages will influence lifetime taxes paid and increase the likelihood of dependence on public income support. Consequently, interventions that influence projected lifetime work activity, morbidity and mortality can have positive and negative fiscal consequences for government. The aim of this study was to apply a public economic framework to a rare disease that takes into consideration a broad range of costs that are relevant to government in relation to transfers received and taxes paid. As a case study we constructed a simulation model to calculate the fiscal life course of an individual with hereditary transthyretin-mediated (hATTR) amyloidosis in The Netherlands. In this lethal disease different progressive disease scenarios occur, including polyneuropathy and/or cardiomyopathy.ResultsDue to progressive disability, health care resource use, and early death, hATTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy receives more transfers from government compared to the general population. In a scenario where a patient is diagnoses with hATTR at age 45, an individual pays €180,812 less in lifetime taxes and receives incrementally €111,695 in transfers from the government, compared to a person without hATTR. Patients suffering from cardiomyopathy die after median 4?years. The health costs of this scenario are therefore lower than that of the other polyneuropathy-based scenarios.ConclusionsThe fiscal analysis illustrates how health conditions influence not only health costs, but also the cross-sectorial public economic burden attributed to lost tax revenues and public disability allowances. Due to the progressive nature of hATTR amyloidosis used in this study, public costs including disability increase as the disease progresses with reduced lifetime taxes paid. The results indicate that halting disease progression early in the disease course would generate fiscal benefits beyond health benefits for patients. This analysis highlights the fiscal consequences of diseases and the need for broader perspectives applied to evaluate health conditions. Conventional cost-effectiveness framework used by many health technology assessment agencies have well-documented limitations in the field of rare diseases and fiscal modeling should be a complementary approach to consider.

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Estimating the public health impact of disbanding a government alcohol monopoly: application of new methods to the case of Sweden.

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Estimating the public health impact of disbanding a government alcohol monopoly: application of new methods to the case of Sweden.

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