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Who can tolerate a marginal kidney? Predicting survival after deceased donor kidney transplant by donor-recipient combination.

ABSTRACT: The impact of donor quality on post-kidney transplant (KT) survival may vary by candidate condition. Characterizing this variation would increase access to KT without sacrificing outcomes. We developed a tool to estimate post-KT survival for combinations of donor quality and candidate condition. We studied deceased donor KT recipients (n = 120 818) and waitlisted candidates (n = 376 272) between 2005 and 2016 by using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. Donor quality and candidate condition were measured by using the Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) and the Estimated Post Transplant Survival (EPTS) score. We estimated 5-year post-KT survival based on combinations of KDPI and EPTS score using random forest algorithms and waitlist survival by EPTS score using Weibull regressions. Survival benefit was defined as absolute reduction in mortality risk with KT. For candidates with an EPTS score of 80, 5-year waitlist survival was 47.6%, and 5-year post-KT survival was 78.9% after receiving kidneys with a KDPI of 20 and was 70.7% after receiving kidneys with a KDPI of 80. The impact of KDPI on survival benefit varied greatly by EPTS score. For candidates with low EPTS scores (eg, <40), the KDPI had limited impact on survival benefit. For candidates with middle or high EPTS scores (eg, >40), survival benefit decreased with higher KDPI but was still substantial even with a KDPI of 100 (>16 percentage points). Our prediction tool (www.transplantmodels.com/kdpi-epts) can support individualized decision-making on kidney offers in clinical practice.

SUBMITTER: Bae S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6309666 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Who can tolerate a marginal kidney? Predicting survival after deceased donor kidney transplant by donor-recipient combination.

Bae Sunjae S Massie Allan B AB Thomas Alvin G AG Bahn Gahyun G Luo Xun X Jackson Kyle R KR Ottmann Shane E SE Brennan Daniel C DC Desai Niraj M NM Coresh Josef J Segev Dorry L DL Garonzik Wang Jacqueline M JM

American journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons 20180714 2

The impact of donor quality on post-kidney transplant (KT) survival may vary by candidate condition. Characterizing this variation would increase access to KT without sacrificing outcomes. We developed a tool to estimate post-KT survival for combinations of donor quality and candidate condition. We studied deceased donor KT recipients (n = 120 818) and waitlisted candidates (n = 376 272) between 2005 and 2016 by using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. Donor quality and candidate ...[more]

PMID: 29935051

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Project description:Importance:The shortage of deceased donor kidneys for transplants is an ongoing concern. Prior studies support transplanting kidneys from deceased donors with acute kidney injury (AKI), but those investigations have been subject to selection bias and small sample sizes. Current allocation practices of AKI kidneys in the United States are not well characterized. Objectives:To evaluate the association of deceased donor AKI with recipient graft survival and to characterize recovery and discard practices for AKI kidneys by organ procurement organizations. Design, Setting, and Participants:Registry-based, propensity score-matched cohort study from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013, in the United States. The dates of analysis were March 1 to November 1, 2019. From 2010 to 2013, a total of 6832 deceased donors with AKI and 15 310 deceased donors without AKI had at least 1 kidney transplanted. This study used a 1:1, propensity score-matched analysis to match deceased donors with AKI to deceased donors without AKI and investigated outcomes in their corresponding kidney recipients. Exposure:Deceased donor AKI, defined as at least 50% or 0.3-mg/dL increase in terminal serum creatinine level from admission. Main Outcomes and Measures:Recipients were assessed for the time to death-censored graft failure and the following secondary outcomes: delayed graft function, primary nonfunction, and the time to all-cause graft failure. Results:Ninety-eight percent (6722 of 6832) of deceased donors with AKI were matched to deceased donors without AKI. The mean (SD) age of the 13 444 deceased donors was 40.4 (14.4) years, and 63% (8529 of 13 444) were male. A total of 25 323 recipients were analyzed (15 485 [61%] were male), and their mean (SD) age was 52.0 (14.7) years. Recipients were followed up for a median of 5 (interquartile range, 4-6) years. Deceased donor AKI status had no association with death-censored graft failure (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.95-1.08) or all-cause graft failure (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.93-1.02). The results were consistent after examining by AKI stage and adjusting for recipient and transplant characteristics. More recipients of AKI kidneys developed delayed graft function (29% vs 22%, P < .001). Few recipients (120 of 25 323 [0.5%]) developed primary nonfunction regardless of deceased donor AKI status. Recovery and transplantation of AKI kidneys varied by organ procurement organization; most (39 of 58) had high recovery and high discard of AKI kidneys. Conclusions and Relevance:Deceased donor AKI kidneys transplanted in the study period had recipient graft survival comparable to that of non-AKI kidneys. This study's findings suggest that the transplant community should evaluate whether currently discarded AKI kidneys from donors without substantial comorbidities can be used more effectively.

Project description:Background and objectivesSmall donor and/or kidney sizes relative to recipient size are associated with a higher risk of kidney allograft failure. Donor and recipient ages are associated with graft survival and may modulate the relationship between size mismatch and the latter. The aim of this study was to determine whether the association between donor-recipient size mismatch and graft survival differs by donor and recipient age.Design, setting, participants, & measurementWe performed a retrospective cohort study of first adult deceased donor kidney transplantations performed between 2000 and 2018 recorded in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between donor-recipient body surface area ratio and death-censored graft survival, defined as return to dialysis or retransplantation. We considered interactions between donor-recipient body surface area ratio and each of recipient and donor age.ResultsAmong the 136,321 kidney transplant recipients included in this study, 23,614 (17%) experienced death-censored graft loss over a median follow-up of 4.3 years (interquartile range, 1.9-7.8 years). The three-way donor-recipient body surface area ratio by donor age by recipient age interaction was statistically significant (P=0.04). The magnitude of the association between severe size mismatch (donor-recipient body surface area ratio <0.80 versus ≥1.00) and death-censored graft survival was stronger with older donor age and recipient age. In all recipient age categories except the youngest (18-30 years), 5- and 10-year graft survival rates were similar or better with a size-mismatched donor aged <40 years than a nonsize-mismatched donor aged 40 years or older.ConclusionsThe association of donor-recipient size mismatch on long-term graft survival is modulated by recipient and donor age. Size-mismatched kidneys yield excellent graft survival when the donor is young. Donor age was more strongly associated with graft survival than size mismatch.

Dataset Information

Who can tolerate a marginal kidney? Predicting survival after deceased donor kidney transplant by donor-recipient combination.

Publications

Who can tolerate a marginal kidney? Predicting survival after deceased donor kidney transplant by donor-recipient combination.

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