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Robust forecast aggregation.

ABSTRACT: Bayesian experts who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator, ignorant of the underlying model, uses this to calculate his or her own forecast. We use the notions of scoring rules and regret to propose a natural way to evaluate an aggregation scheme. We focus on a binary state space and construct low regret aggregation schemes whenever there are only two experts that either are Blackwell-ordered or receive conditionally independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) signals. In contrast, if there are many experts with conditionally i.i.d. signals, then no scheme performs (asymptotically) better than a [Formula: see text] forecast.

SUBMITTER: Arieli I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6310790 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Robust forecast aggregation.

Arieli Itai I Babichenko Yakov Y Smorodinsky Rann R

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20181211 52

Bayesian experts who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator, ignorant of the underlying model, uses this to calculate his or her own forecast. We use the notions of scoring rules and regret to propose a natural way to evaluate an aggregation scheme. We focus on a binary state space and construct low regret aggregation schemes whenever there are only two experts that either are Blackwell-ordered or receive conditionally independent and id ...[more]

PMID: 30538197

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