Dataset Information

Performance of Electronic Prediction Rules for Prevalent Delirium at Hospital Admission.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Delirium at admission is associated with increased hospital morbidity and mortality, but it may be missed in up to 70% of cases. Use of a predictive algorithm in an electronic medical record (EMR) system could provide critical information to target assessment of those with delirium at admission.

Objectives

To develop and assess a prediction rule for delirium using 2 populations of veterans and compare this rule with previously confirmed rules.

Design, setting, and participants

In a diagnostic study, randomly selected EMRs of hospitalized veterans from the Veterans Affairs (VA) External Peer Review Program at 118 VA medical centers with inpatient facilities were reviewed for delirium risk factors associated with the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) delirium rule in a derivation cohort (October 1, 2012, to September 30, 2013) and a confirmation cohort (October 1, 2013, to March 31, 2014). Delirium within 24 hours of admission was identified using key word terms. A total of 39 377 veterans 65 years or older who were admitted to a VA medical center for congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndrome, community-acquired pneumonia, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were included in the study.

Exposure

The EMR calculated delirium risk.

Main outcomes and measures

Delirium at admission as identified by trained nurse reviewers was the main outcome measure. Random forest methods were used to identify accurate risk factors for prevalent delirium. A prediction rule for prevalent delirium was developed, and its diagnostic accuracy was tested in the confirmation cohort. This consolidated NICE rule was compared with previously confirmed scoring algorithms (electronic NICE and Pendlebury NICE).

Results

A total of 27?625 patients were included in the derivation cohort (28 118 [92.2%] male; mean [SD] age, 75.95 [8.61] years) and 11 752 in the confirmation cohort (11 536 [98.2%] male; mean [SD] age, 75.43 [8.55] years). Delirium at admission was identified in 2343 patients (8.5%) in the derivation cohort and 882 patients (7.0%) in the confirmation cohort. Modeling techniques identified cognitive impairment, infection, sodium level, and age of 80 years or older as the dominant risk factors. The consolidated NICE rule (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] curve, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.91-0.92; P?Conclusions and relevanceThis analysis identified preexisting cognitive impairment, infection, sodium level, and age of 80 years or older as delirium screening targets. Use of this algorithm in an EMR system could direct clinical assessment efforts to patients with delirium at admission.

SUBMITTER: Halladay CW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6324279 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Performance of Electronic Prediction Rules for Prevalent Delirium at Hospital Admission.

Halladay Christopher W CW Sillner Andrea Yevchak AY Rudolph James L JL

JAMA network open 20180803 4

<h4>Importance</h4>Delirium at admission is associated with increased hospital morbidity and mortality, but it may be missed in up to 70% of cases. Use of a predictive algorithm in an electronic medical record (EMR) system could provide critical information to target assessment of those with delirium at admission.<h4>Objectives</h4>To develop and assess a prediction rule for delirium using 2 populations of veterans and compare this rule with previously confirmed rules.<h4>Design, setting, and pa ...[more]

PMID: 30646122

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Project description:ImportanceIdentifying biomarkers that, at hospital admission, predict subsequent delirium will help to focus our clinical efforts on prevention and management.ObjectiveThe study aimed to investigate biomarkers at hospital admission that may be associated with delirium during hospitalization.Data sourcesA librarian at the Fraser Health Authority Health Sciences Library performed searches from 28 June 2021 to 9 July 2021, using the following sources: Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Methodology Register, and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews and Effects.Study selectionThe inclusion criteria were articles in English that investigated the link between serum concentration of biomarkers at hospital admission and delirium during hospitalization. Exclusion criteria were single case reports, case series, comments, editorials, letters to the editor, articles that were not relevant to the review objective, and articles concerning pediatrics. After excluding duplicates, 55 studies were included.Data extraction and synthesisThis meta-analysis followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol. Independent extraction, with the consensus of multiple reviewers, was used to determine the final studies included. The weight and heterogeneity of the manuscripts were calculated using inverse covariance with a random-effects model.Main outcomes and measuresDifferences in mean serum concentration of biomarkers at hospital admission between patients who did and did not develop delirium during hospitalization.ResultsOur search found evidence that patients who developed delirium during hospitalization had, at hospital admission, significantly greater concentrations of certain inflammatory biomarkers and one blood-brain barrier leakage marker than patients who did not develop delirium during hospitalization (differences in the mean: cortisol: 3.36 ng/ml, p < 0.0001; CRP: 41.39 mg/L, p < 0.00001; IL-6: 24.05 pg/ml, p < 0.00001; S100β 0.07 ng/ml, p < 0.00001). These differences were independent of other confounding variables such as the patient's severity of illness. A significantly lower serum concentration, at hospital admission, of acetylcholinesterase (difference in the means -0.86 U/ml, p = 0.004) was also associated with an increased vulnerability to developing delirium during hospitalization.Conclusion and relevanceOur meta-analysis supports the hypothesis that patients with hypothalamic-pituitary axis dysfunction, increased blood-brain barrier permeability, and chronic overload of the cholinergic system, at hospital admission, are more vulnerable to developing delirium during hospitalization.

Project description:ImportanceHospital readmissions are associated with patient harm and expense. Ways to prevent hospital readmissions have focused on identifying patients at greatest risk using prediction scores.ObjectiveTo identify the type of score that best predicts hospital readmissions.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study included 14?062 consecutive adult hospital patients with 16?649 discharges from a tertiary care center, suburban community hospital, and urban critical access hospital in Maryland from September 1, 2016, through December 31, 2016. Patients not included as eligible discharges by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services or the Chesapeake Regional Information System for Our Patients were excluded. A machine learning rank score, the Baltimore score (B score) developed using a machine learning technique, for each individual hospital using data from the 2 years before September 1, 2016, was compared with standard readmission risk assessment scores to predict 30-day unplanned readmissions.Main outcomes and measuresThe 30-day readmission rate evaluated using various readmission scores: B score, HOSPITAL score, modified LACE score, and Maxim/RightCare score.ResultsOf the 10?732 patients (5605 [52.2%] male; mean [SD] age, 54.56 [22.42] years) deemed to be eligible for the study, 1422 were readmitted. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for individual rules was 0.63 (95% CI, 0.61-0.65) for the HOSPITAL score, which was significantly lower than the 0.66 for modified LACE score (95% CI, 0.64-0.68; P?<?.001). The B score machine learning score was significantly better than all other scores; 48 hours after admission, the AUROC of the B score was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73), which increased to 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.79) at discharge (all P?<?.001). At the hospital using Maxim/RightCare score, the AUROC was 0.63 (95% CI, 0.59-0.69) for HOSPITAL, 0.64 (95% CI, 0.61-0.68) for Maxim/RightCare, and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.62-0.69) for modified LACE score. The B score was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69-0.75) 48 hours after admission and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.79-0.84) at discharge. In directly comparing the B score with the sensitivity at cutoff values for modified LACE, HOSPITAL, and Maxim/RightCare scores, the B score was able to identify the same number of readmitted patients while flagging 25.5% to 54.9% fewer patients.Conclusions and relevanceAmong 3 hospitals in different settings, an automated machine learning score better predicted readmissions than commonly used readmission scores. More efficiently targeting patients at higher risk of readmission may be the first step toward potentially preventing readmissions.

Project description:Risk assessment of in-hospital mortality of patients at the time of hospitalization is necessary for determining the scale of required medical resources for the patient depending on the patient's severity. Because recent machine learning application in the clinical area has been shown to enhance prediction ability, applying this technique to this issue can lead to an accurate prediction model for in-hospital mortality prediction. In this study, we aimed to generate an accurate prediction model of in-hospital mortality using machine learning techniques. Patients 18 years of age or older admitted to the University of Tokyo Hospital between January 1, 2009 and December 26, 2017 were used in this study. The data were divided into a training/validation data set (n = 119,160) and a test data set (n = 33,970) according to the time of admission. The prediction target of the model was the in-hospital mortality within 14 days. To generate the prediction model, 25 variables (age, sex, 21 laboratory test items, length of stay, and mortality) were used to predict in-hospital mortality. Logistic regression, random forests, multilayer perceptron, and gradient boost decision trees were performed to generate the prediction models. To evaluate the prediction capability of the model, the model was tested using a test data set. Mean probabilities obtained from trained models with five-fold cross-validation were used to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. In a test stage using the test data set, prediction models of in-hospital mortality within 14 days showed AUROC values of 0.936, 0.942, 0.942, and 0.938 for logistic regression, random forests, multilayer perceptron, and gradient boosting decision trees, respectively. Machine learning-based prediction of short-term in-hospital mortality using admission laboratory data showed outstanding prediction capability and, therefore, has the potential to be useful for the risk assessment of patients at the time of hospitalization.

Project description:BackgroundRisk prediction models allow clinicians to forecast which individuals are at a higher risk for developing a particular outcome. We developed and internally validated a delirium prediction model for incident delirium parameterized to patient ICU admission acuity.MethodsThis retrospective, observational, fourteen medical-surgical ICU cohort study evaluated consecutive delirium-free adults surviving hospital stay with ICU length of stay (LOS) greater than or equal to 24 hours with both an admission APACHE II score and an admission type (e.g., elective post-surgery, emergency post-surgery, non-surgical) in whom delirium was assessed using the Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC). Risk factors included in the model were readily available in electric medical records. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic (LASSO) regression was used for model development. Discrimination was determined using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Internal validation was performed by cross-validation. Predictive performance was determined using measures of accuracy and clinical utility was assessed by decision-curve analysis.ResultsA total of 8,878 patients were included. Delirium incidence was 49.9% (n = 4,431). The delirium prediction model was parameterized to seven patient cohorts, admission type (3 cohorts) or mean quartile APACHE II score (4 cohorts). All parameterized cohort models were well calibrated. The AUC ranged from 0.67 to 0.78 (95% confidence intervals [CI] ranged from 0.63 to 0.79). Model accuracy varied across admission types; sensitivity ranged from 53.2% to 63.9% while specificity ranged from 69.0% to 74.6%. Across mean quartile APACHE II scores, sensitivity ranged from 58.2% to 59.7% while specificity ranged from 70.1% to 73.6%. The clinical utility of the parameterized cohort prediction model to predict and prevent incident delirium was greater than preventing incident delirium by treating all or none of the patients.ConclusionsOur results support external validation of a prediction model parameterized to patient ICU admission acuity to predict a patients' risk for ICU delirium. Classification of patients' risk for ICU delirium by admission acuity may allow for efficient initiation of prevention measures based on individual risk profiles.

Dataset Information

Performance of Electronic Prediction Rules for Prevalent Delirium at Hospital Admission.

Importance

Objectives

Design, setting, and participants

Exposure

Main outcomes and measures

Results

Publications

Performance of Electronic Prediction Rules for Prevalent Delirium at Hospital Admission.

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