Dataset Information

Development of an agent-based model to assess the impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials: Uganda case study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Global efforts to address the burden of malaria have stagnated in recent years with malaria cases beginning to rise. Substandard and falsified anti-malarial treatments contribute to this stagnation. Poor quality anti-malarials directly affect health outcomes by increasing malaria morbidity and mortality, as well as threaten the effectiveness of treatment by contributing to artemisinin resistance. Research to assess the scope and impact of poor quality anti-malarials is essential to raise awareness and allocate resources to improve the quality of treatment. A probabilistic agent-based model was developed to provide country-specific estimates of the health and economic impact of poor quality anti-malarials on paediatric malaria. This paper presents the methodology and case study of the Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact (SAFARI) model developed and applied to Uganda.

Results

The total annual economic impact of malaria in Ugandan children under age five was estimated at US$614 million. Among children who sought medical care, the total economic impact was estimated at $403 million, including $57.7 million in direct costs. Substandard and falsified anti-malarials were a significant contributor to this annual burden, accounting for $31 million (8% of care-seeking children) in total economic impact involving $5.2 million in direct costs. Further, 9% of malaria deaths relating to cases seeking treatment were attributable to poor quality anti-malarials. In the event of widespread artemisinin resistance in Uganda, we simulated a 12% yearly increase in costs associated with paediatric malaria cases that sought care, inflicting $48.5 million in additional economic impact annually.

Conclusions

Improving the quality of treatment is essential to combat the burden of malaria and prevent the development of drug resistance. The SAFARI model provides country-specific estimates of the health and economic impact of substandard and falsified anti-malarials to inform governments, policy makers, donors and the malaria community about the threat posed by poor quality medicines. The model findings are useful to illustrate the significance of the issue and inform policy and interventions to improve medicinal quality.

SUBMITTER: Ozawa S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6327614 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionSubstandard and falsified medications pose significant risks to global health. Nearly one in five antimalarials circulating in low- and middle-income countries are substandard or falsified. We assessed the health and economic impact of substandard and falsified antimalarials on children under five in Nigeria, where malaria is endemic and poor-quality medications are commonplace.MethodsWe developed a dynamic agent-based SAFARI (Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact) model to capture the impact of antimalarial use in Nigeria. The model simulated children with background characteristics, malaria infections, patient care-seeking, disease progression, treatment outcomes, and incurred costs. Using scenario analyses, we simulated the impact of substandard and falsified medicines, antimalarial resistance, as well as possible interventions to improve the quality of treatment, reduce stock-outs, and educate caregivers about antimalarial quality.ResultsWe estimated that poor quality antimalarials are responsible for 12,300 deaths and $892 million ($890-$893 million) in costs annually in Nigeria. If antimalarial resistance develops, we simulated that current costs of malaria could increase by $839 million (11% increase, $837-$841 million). The northern regions of Nigeria have a greater burden as compared to the southern regions, with 9,700 deaths and $698 million ($697-$700 million) in total economic losses annually due to substandard and falsified antimalarials. Furthermore, our scenario analyses demonstrated that possible interventions-such as removing stock-outs in all facilities ($1.11 billion), having only ACTs available for treatment ($594 million), and 20% more patients seeking care ($469 million)-can save hundreds of millions in costs annually in Nigeria.ConclusionsThe results highlight the significant health and economic burden of poor quality antimalarials in Nigeria, and the impact of potential interventions to counter them. In order to reduce the burden of malaria and prevent antimalarials from developing resistance, policymakers and donors must understand the problem and implement interventions to reduce the impact of ineffective and harmful antimalarials.

Project description:The World Health Organization and others warn that substandard and falsified medicines harm health and waste money, especially in low- and middle-income countries. However, no country has measured the market-wide extent of the problem, and no standardized methods exist to estimate the prevalence of either substandard or falsified medicines. This is, in part, because the task seems overwhelming; medicine markets are huge and diverse, and testing medicines is expensive. Many countries do operate some form of postmarket surveillance of medicine, but their methods and goals differ. There is currently no clear guidance on which surveillance method is most appropriate to meet specific public health goals. In this viewpoint, we aimed to discuss the utility of both case finding and risk-based sentinel surveillance for substandard and falsified medicines, linking each to specific public health goals. We posit that choosing the system most appropriate to the goal, as well as implementing it with a clear understanding of the factors driving the production and sale of substandard and falsified medicines, will allow for surveillance resources to be concentrated most efficiently. We adapted principles used for disease outbreak responses to suggest a case-finding system that uses secondary data to flag poor-quality medicines, proposing risk-based indicators that differ for substandard and falsified medicines. This system potentially offers a cost-effective way of identifying "cases" for market withdrawal, enhanced oversight, or another immediate response. We further proposed a risk-based sentinel surveillance system that concentrates resources on measuring the prevalence of substandard and falsified medicines in the risk clusters where they are most likely to be found. The sentinel surveillance system provides base data for a transparent, spreadsheet-based model for estimating the national prevalence of substandard and falsified medicines. The methods we proposed are based on ongoing work in Indonesia, a large and diverse middle-income country currently aiming to achieve universal health coverage. Both the case finding and the sentinel surveillance system are designed to be adaptable to other resource-constrained settings.

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Project description:BackgroundGlobally, millions of people have been affected by fraudulent pharmaceutical products, particularly those in developing countries. Although the problem of falsified and substandard drugs is acknowledged, the extent of the issue is ever-changing, has a dynamic nature, and should be quantified and captured in a recent snapshot.ObjectiveThis systematic review seeks to examine the data that can quantify and provide a current snapshot of the prevalence of SF antimicrobials in selected east Africa countries.MethodsScientific studies on antimicrobial quality were searched in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar from 2017 to February 2023. The search strategy focused on scientific articles published in peer-reviewed scientific journals written in English and the studies exclusively done in any of the selected countries of east Africa. The articles were carefully reviewed by two individuals for inclusion independently, first by title followed by abstract and the full-text retrieval. To minimize bias associated with the methodology used for data collection, the quality of the studies was assessed for quality according to the Medicine Quality Assessment Reporting Guidelines (MEDQUARG). The reporting of this systematic review was done following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA).ResultsFifteen studies that estimated the prevalence of poor-quality antimicrobial medicines in selected four east African countries were included. The overall percentage of samples of antimicrobials that failed at least one quality test was 22.6% (151/669) with each class's prevalence of 17% in antibiotics (73/432), 24% in antimalarial (41/171), and 56% in anthelmintics (37/66). Quality control parameters of API content were the most commonly examined in the included studies, accounting for 14/15 (93%) studies. Fifty (33.1%) of the failing samples failed assay API- content determination, while 26.5% (n = 40) failed the visual inspection and packaging analysis; 19.2% (29) failed dissolution; 14% (n = 21) flawed hardness or friability; 4%(n = 6) failed uniformity, as well as 3.2% (n = 5) failed disintegration test of the quality control parameter.ConclusionIt was found that this review was general in these selected east African countries and was a catalyst for combating the menace of poor-quality medications that affect millions of lives.

Project description:Falsified and substandard drugs are a global health problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) that have weak pharmacovigilance and drug regulatory systems. Poor quality medicines have important health consequences, including the potential for treatment failure, development of antimicrobial resistance, and serious adverse drug reactions, increasing healthcare costs and undermining the public's confidence in healthcare systems. This article presents a review of the methods employed for the analysis of pharmaceutical formulations. Technologies for detecting substandard and falsified drugs were identified primarily through literature reviews. Key-informant interviews with experts augmented our methods when warranted. In order to aid comparisons, technologies were assigned a suitability score for use in LMIC ranging from 0-8. Scores measured the need for electricity, need for sample preparation, need for reagents, portability, level of training required, and speed of analysis. Technologies with higher scores were deemed the most feasible in LMICs. We categorized technologies that cost $10,000 USD or less as low cost, $10,000-100,000 USD as medium cost and those greater than $100,000 USD as high cost technologies (all prices are 2013 USD). This search strategy yielded information on 42 unique technologies. Five technologies were deemed both low cost and had feasibility scores between 6-8, and an additional four technologies had medium cost and high feasibility. Twelve technologies were deemed portable and therefore could be used in the field. Many technologies can aid in the detection of substandard and falsified drugs that vary from the simplest of checklists for packaging to the most complex mass spectrometry analyses. Although there is no single technology that can serve all the requirements of detecting falsified and substandard drugs, there is an opportunity to bifurcate the technologies into specific niches to address specific sections within the workflow process of detecting products.

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