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Development and internal validation of an aneurysm rupture probability model based on patient characteristics and aneurysm location, morphology, and hemodynamics.

ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:Unruptured cerebral aneurysms pose a dilemma for physicians who need to weigh the risk of a devastating subarachnoid hemorrhage against the risk of surgery or endovascular treatment and their complications when deciding on a treatment strategy. A prediction model could potentially support such treatment decisions. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a model for aneurysm rupture based on hemodynamic and geometric parameters, aneurysm location, and patient gender and age. METHODS:Cross-sectional data from 1061 patients were used for image-based computational fluid dynamics and shape characterization of 1631 aneurysms for training an aneurysm rupture probability model using logistic group Lasso regression. The model's discrimination and calibration were internally validated based on the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and calibration plots. RESULTS:The final model retained 11 hemodynamic and 12 morphological variables, aneurysm location, as well as patient age and gender. An adverse hemodynamic environment characterized by a higher maximum oscillatory shear index, higher kinetic energy and smaller low shear area as well as a more complex aneurysm shape, male gender and younger age were associated with an increased rupture risk. The corresponding AUC of the model was 0.86 (95% CI [0.85, 0.86], after correction for optimism 0.84). CONCLUSION:The model combining variables from various domains was able to discriminate between ruptured and unruptured aneurysms with an AUC of 86%. Internal validation indicated potential for the application of this model in clinical practice after evaluation with longitudinal data.

SUBMITTER: Detmer FJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6328054 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and internal validation of an aneurysm rupture probability model based on patient characteristics and aneurysm location, morphology, and hemodynamics.

Detmer Felicitas J FJ Chung Bong Jae BJ Mut Fernando F Slawski Martin M Hamzei-Sichani Farid F Putman Christopher C Jiménez Carlos C Cebral Juan R JR

International journal of computer assisted radiology and surgery 20180809 11

<h4>Purpose</h4>Unruptured cerebral aneurysms pose a dilemma for physicians who need to weigh the risk of a devastating subarachnoid hemorrhage against the risk of surgery or endovascular treatment and their complications when deciding on a treatment strategy. A prediction model could potentially support such treatment decisions. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a model for aneurysm rupture based on hemodynamic and geometric parameters, aneurysm location, and patient ...[more]

PMID: 30094777

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Project description:BackgroundRecurrence of intracranial aneurysms after endovascular coiling is a serious clinical concern.ObjectiveWe hypothesized that recurrence is associated with aneurysm morphology and flow, as well as the coil intervention and the induced flow modifications.MethodsWe collected 52 primary-coiling aneurysm cases that were either occluded (n=34) or recurrent (n=18) at >1 year follow-up. We created aneurysm models from pre-coiling digital subtraction angiographic images, calculated aneurysm morphology, simulated pre-coiling hemodynamics, modeled coil deployment, and obtained post-coiling hemodynamics for each case. We performed univariable analysis on 26 morphologic, treatment-specific, and hemodynamic parameters to distinguish between recurrent and occluded groups, and multivariable analysis to identify independently significant parameters associated with recurrence. Univariable analysis was also performed on ruptured and unruptured aneurysm subcohorts separately to investigate if they shared specific significant parameters.ResultsRecurrence was associated with pre-coiling aneurysm morphologic and flow parameters including larger size (maximum dimension and volume), larger neck (diameter, area, and neck-to-parent-artery ratio), and higher flow momentum and kinetic energy. Recurrence was also associated with lower coil packing (packing density and uncoiled volume), higher post-treatment flow (velocity, momentum, and kinetic energy), lower post-treatment washout time, and higher post-treatment impingement force at the neck. Multivariable analysis identified two aneurysmal characteristics (neck diameter and pre-coiling flow kinetic energy), one coil packing parameter (uncoiled volume), and one post-treatment hemodynamic parameter (flow momentum) that were independently associated with recurrence. In ruptured aneurysms, recurrence was associated with larger neck (diameter and area), whereas in unruptured aneurysms, recurrence was associated with larger size (maximum dimension and volume). In both subcohorts, recurrence was associated with higher post-coiling flow momentum and kinetic energy.ConclusionRecurrence at >1 year after coil treatment is associated with intrinsic aneurysm characteristics, coiling itself, and flow changes induced by coiling. Larger aneurysm size and neck, less coil packing, and higher intra-aneurysmal flow before and after coiling predict recurrence.

Project description:Background: The circle of Willis is a network of arteries allowing blood supply to the brain. Bulging of these arteries leads to formation of intracranial aneurysm (IA). Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) due to IA rupture is among the leading causes of disability in the western world. The formation and rupture of IAs is a complex pathological process not completely understood. In the present study, we have precisely measured aneurysmal wall thickness and its uniformity on histological sections and investigated for associations between IA wall thickness/uniformity and commonly admitted risk factors for IA rupture. Methods: Fifty-five aneurysm domes were obtained at the Geneva University Hospitals during microsurgery after clipping of the IA neck. Samples were embedded in paraffin, sectioned and stained with hematoxylin-eosin to measure IA wall thickness. The mean, minimum, and maximum wall thickness as well as thickness uniformity was measured for each IA. Clinical data related to IA characteristics (ruptured or unruptured, vascular location, maximum dome diameter, neck size, bottleneck factor, aspect and morphology), and patient characteristics [age, smoking, hypertension, sex, ethnicity, previous SAH, positive family history for IA/SAH, presence of multiple IAs and diagnosis of polycystic kidney disease (PKD)] were collected. Results: We found positive correlations between maximum dome diameter or neck size and IA wall thickness and thickness uniformity. PKD patients had thinner IA walls. No associations were found between smoking, hypertension, sex, IA multiplicity, rupture status or vascular location, and IA wall thickness. No correlation was found between patient age and IA wall thickness. The group of IAs with non-uniform wall thickness contained more ruptured IAs, women and patients harboring multiple IAs. Finally, PHASES and ELAPSS scores were positively correlated with higher IA wall heterogeneity. Conclusion: Among our patient and aneurysm characteristics of interest, maximum dome diameter, neck size and PKD were the three factors having the most significant impact on IA wall thickness and thickness uniformity. Moreover, wall thickness heterogeneity was more observed in ruptured IAs, in women and in patients with multiple IAs. Advanced medical imaging allowing in vivo measurement of IA wall thickness would certainly improve personalized management of the disease and patient care.

Project description:Background and purposeComputational fluid dynamics has become a popular tool for studying intracranial aneurysm hemodynamics, demonstrating success for retrospectively discriminating rupture status; however, recent highly refined simulations suggest potential deficiencies in solution strategies normally used in the aneurysm computational fluid dynamics literature. The purpose of the present study was to determine the impact of this gap.Materials and methodsPulsatile flow in 12 realistic MCA aneurysms was simulated by using both high-resolution and normal-resolution strategies. Velocity fields were compared at selected instants via domain-averaged error. We also compared wall shear stress fields and various reduced hemodynamic indices: cycle-averaged mean and maximum wall shear stress, oscillatory shear index, low shear area, viscous dissipation ratio, and kinetic energy ratio.ResultsInstantaneous differences in flow and wall shear stress patterns were appreciable, especially for bifurcation aneurysms. Linear regressions revealed strong correlations (R(2) > 0.9) between high-resolution and normal-resolution solutions for all indices except kinetic energy ratio (R(2) = 0.25) and oscillatory shear index (R(2) = 0.23); however, for most indices, the slopes were significantly <1, reflecting a pronounced underestimation by the normal-resolution simulations. Some high-resolution simulations were highly unstable, with fluctuating wall shear stresses reflected by the poor oscillatory shear index correlation.ConclusionsTypical computational fluid dynamics solution strategies may ultimately be adequate for augmenting rupture risk assessment on the basis of certain highly reduced indices; however, they cannot be relied on for predicting the magnitude and character of the complex biomechanical stimuli to which the aneurysm wall may be exposed. This impact of the computational fluid dynamics solution strategy is likely greater than that for other modeling assumptions or uncertainties.

Dataset Information

Development and internal validation of an aneurysm rupture probability model based on patient characteristics and aneurysm location, morphology, and hemodynamics.

Publications

Development and internal validation of an aneurysm rupture probability model based on patient characteristics and aneurysm location, morphology, and hemodynamics.

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