Dataset Information

Armed conflict and child mortality in Africa: a geospatial analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:A substantial portion of child deaths in Africa take place in countries with recent history of armed conflict and political instability. However, the extent to which armed conflict is an important cause of child mortality, especially in Africa, remains unknown. METHODS:We matched child survival with proximity to armed conflict using information in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset on the location and intensity of armed conflict from 1995 to 2015 together with the location, timing, and survival of infants younger than 1 year (primary outcome) in 35 African countries. We measured the increase in mortality risk for infants exposed to armed conflicts within 50 km in the year of birth and, to study conflicts' extended health risks, up to 250 km away and 10 years before birth. We also examined the effects of conflicts of varying intensity and chronicity (conflicts lasting several years), and effect heterogeneity by residence and sex of the child. We then estimated the number and portion of deaths of infants younger than 1 year related to conflict. FINDINGS:We identified 15?441 armed conflict events that led to 968?444 combat-related deaths and matched these data with 1·99 million births and 133?361 infant deaths (infant mortality of 67 deaths per 1000 births) between 1995 and 2015. A child born within 50 km of an armed conflict had a risk of dying before reaching age 1 year of 5·2 per 1000 births higher than being born in the same region during periods without conflict (95% CI 3·7-6·7; a 7·7% increase above baseline). This increased risk of dying ranged from a 3·0% increase for armed conflicts with one to four deaths to a 26·7% increase for armed conflicts with more than 1000 deaths. We find evidence of increased mortality risk from an armed conflict up to 100 km away, and for 8 years after conflicts, with cumulative increase in infant mortality two to four times higher than the contemporaneous increase. In the entire continent, the number of infant deaths related to conflict from 1995 to 2015 was between 3·2 and 3·6 times the number of direct deaths from armed conflicts. INTERPRETATION:Armed conflict substantially and persistently increases infant mortality in Africa, with effect sizes on a scale with malnutrition and several times greater than existing estimates of the mortality burden of conflict. The toll of conflict on children, who are presumably not combatants, underscores the indirect toll of conflict on civilian populations, and the importance of developing interventions to address child health in areas of conflict. FUNDING:The Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, and the Centre for Global Child Health at the Hospital for Sick Children.

SUBMITTER: Wagner Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6338336 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Armed conflict and child mortality in Africa: a geospatial analysis.

Wagner Zachary Z Heft-Neal Sam S Bhutta Zulfiqar A ZA Black Robert E RE Burke Marshall M Bendavid Eran E

Lancet (London, England) 20180830 10150

<h4>Background</h4>A substantial portion of child deaths in Africa take place in countries with recent history of armed conflict and political instability. However, the extent to which armed conflict is an important cause of child mortality, especially in Africa, remains unknown.<h4>Methods</h4>We matched child survival with proximity to armed conflict using information in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset on the location and intensity of armed conflict from 1995 to ...[more]

PMID: 30173907

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Project description:BackgroundThe population effects of armed conflict on non-combatant vulnerable populations are incompletely understood. We aimed to study the effects of conflict on mortality among women of childbearing age (15-49 years) and on orphanhood among children younger than 15 years in Africa.MethodsWe tested the extent to which mortality among women aged 15-49 years, and orphanhood among children younger than 15 years, increased in response to nearby armed conflict in Africa. Data on location, timing, and intensity of armed conflicts were obtained from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and data on the location, timing, and outcomes of women and children from Demographic and Health Surveys done in 35 African countries from 1990 to 2016. Mortality among women was obtained from sibling survival data. We used cluster-area fixed-effects regression models to compare survival of women during periods of nearby conflict (within 50 km) to survival of women in the same area during times without conflict. We used similar methods to examine the extent to which children living near armed conflicts are at increased risk of becoming orphans. We examined the effects of varying conflict intensity using number of direct battle deaths and duration of consecutive conflict exposure.FindingsWe analysed data on 1 629 352 women (19 286 387 person-years), of which 103 011 (6·3%) died (534·1 deaths per 100 000 women-years), and 2 354 041 children younger than 15 years, of which 204 276 (8·7%) had lost a parent. On average, conflict within 50 km increased women's mortality by 112 deaths per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 97-128; a 21% increase above baseline), and the probability that a child has lost at least one parent by 6·0% (95% CI 3-8). This effect was driven by high-intensity conflicts: exposure to the highest (tenth) decile conflict in terms of conflict-related deaths increased the probability of female mortality by 202% (187-218) and increased the likelihood of orphanhood by 42% compared with a conflict-free period. Among the conflict-attributed deaths, 10% were due to maternal mortality.InterpretationAfrican women of childbearing age are at a substantially increased risk of death from nearby high-intensity armed conflicts. Children exposed to conflict are analogously at increased risk of becoming orphans. This work fills gaps in literature on the harmful effects of armed conflict on non-combatants and highlights the need for humanitarian interventions to protect vulnerable populations.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the BRANCH Consortium.

Project description:BackgroundArmed conflicts affect more than one in 10 children globally. While there is a large literature on mental health, the effects of armed conflict on children's physical health and development are not well understood. This systematic review summarizes the current and past knowledge on the effects of armed conflict on child health and development.MethodsA systematic review was performed with searches in major and regional databases for papers published 1 January 1945 to 25 April 2017. Included studies provided data on physical and/or developmental outcomes associated with armed conflict in children under 18 years. Data were extracted on health outcomes, displacement, social isolation, experience of violence, orphan status, and access to basic needs. The review is registered with PROSPERO: CRD42017036425.FindingsAmong 17,679 publications screened, 155 were eligible for inclusion. Nearly half of the 131 quantitative studies were case reports, chart or registry reviews, and one-third were cross-sectional studies. Additionally, 18 qualitative and 6 mixed-methods studies were included. The papers describe mortality, injuries, illnesses, environmental exposures, limitations in access to health care and education, and the experience of violence, including torture and sexual violence. Studies also described conflict-related social changes affecting child health. The geographical coverage of the literature is limited. Data on the effects of conflict on child development are scarce.InterpretationThe available data document the pervasive effect of conflict as a form of violence against children and a negative social determinant of child health. There is an urgent need for research on the mechanisms by which conflict affects child health and development and the relationship between physical health, mental health, and social conditions. Particular priority should be given to studies on child development, the long term effects of exposure to conflict, and protective and mitigating factors against the harmful effects of armed conflict on children.

Project description:BackgroundArmed conflicts have major indirect health impacts in addition to the direct harms from violence. They create enduring political instability, destabilise health systems, and foster negative socioeconomic and environmental conditions-all of which constrain efforts to reduce maternal and child mortality. The detrimental impacts of conflict on global maternal and child health are not robustly quantified. This study assesses the association between conflict and maternal and child health globally.Methods and findingsData for 181 countries (2000-2019) from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and World Bank were analysed using panel regression models. Primary outcomes were maternal, under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were delivery by a skilled birth attendant and diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccination coverage. Models were adjusted for 10 confounders, country and year fixed effects, and conflict lagged by 1 year. Further lagged associations up to 10 years post-conflict were tested. The number of excess deaths due to conflict was estimated. Out of 3,718 country-year observations, 522 (14.0%) had minor conflicts and 148 (4.0%) had wars. In adjusted models, conflicts classified as wars were associated with an increase in maternal mortality of 36.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI 1.9-72.0; 0.3 million excess deaths [95% CI 0.2 million-0.4 million] over the study period), an increase in infant mortality of 2.8 per 1,000 live births (95% CI 0.1-5.5; 2.0 million excess deaths [95% CI 1.6 million-2.5 million]), a decrease in DPT vaccination coverage of 4.9% (95% CI 1.5%-8.3%), and a decrease in measles vaccination coverage of 7.3% (95% CI 2.7%-11.8%). The long-term impacts of war were demonstrated by associated increases in maternal mortality observed for up to 7 years, in under-5 mortality for 3-5 years, in infant mortality for up to 8 years, in DPT vaccination coverage for up to 3 years, and in measles vaccination coverage for up to 2 years. No evidence of association between armed conflict and neonatal mortality or delivery by a skilled birth attendant was found. Study limitations include the ecological study design, which may mask sub-national variation in conflict intensity, and the quality of the underlying data.ConclusionsOur analysis indicates that armed conflict is associated with substantial and persistent excess maternal and child deaths globally, and with reductions in key measures that indicate reduced availability of organised healthcare. These findings highlight the importance of protecting women and children from the indirect harms of conflict, including those relating to health system deterioration and worsening socioeconomic conditions.

Project description:BackgroundArmed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups.MethodsWe included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths.ResultsWe identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality-driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9); non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2); and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality.ConclusionsArmed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened.

Project description:BackgroundSubstantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control.MethodsUsing an established set of spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical models, we generated geospatial estimates across malaria-endemic African countries of the clinical case incidence and mortality of malaria, incorporating an updated database of parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage, and effective treatment rates. We established a baseline estimate for the anticipated malaria burden in Africa in the absence of COVID-19-related disruptions, and repeated the analysis for nine hypothetical scenarios in which effective treatment with an antimalarial drug and distribution of ITNs (both through routine channels and mass campaigns) were reduced to varying extents.FindingsWe estimated 215·2 (95% uncertainty interval 143·7-311·6) million cases and 386·4 (307·8-497·8) thousand deaths across malaria-endemic African countries in 2020 in our baseline scenario of undisrupted intervention coverage. With greater reductions in access to effective antimalarial drug treatment, our model predicted increasing numbers of cases and deaths: 224·1 (148·7-326·8) million cases and 487·9 (385·3-634·6) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction in antimalarial drug coverage; 233·1 (153·7-342·5) million cases and 597·4 (468·0-784·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 242·3 (158·7-358·8) million cases and 715·2 (556·4-947·9) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Halting planned 2020 ITN mass distribution campaigns and reducing routine ITN distributions by 25%-75% also increased malaria burden to a total of 230·5 (151·6-343·3) million cases and 411·7 (322·8-545·5) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 232·8 (152·3-345·9) million cases and 415·5 (324·3-549·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 234·0 (152·9-348·4) million cases and 417·6 (325·5-553·1) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. When ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were synchronously reduced, malaria burden increased to 240·5 (156·5-358·2) million cases and 520·9 (404·1-691·9) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 251·0 (162·2-377·0) million cases and 640·2 (492·0-856·7) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 261·6 (167·7-396·8) million cases and 768·6 (586·1-1038·7) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction.InterpretationUnder pessimistic scenarios, COVID-19-related disruption to malaria control in Africa could almost double malaria mortality in 2020, and potentially lead to even greater increases in subsequent years. To avoid a reversal of two decades of progress against malaria, averting this public health disaster must remain an integrated priority alongside the response to COVID-19.FundingBill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Channel 7 Telethon Trust, Western Australia.

Project description:BackgroundGhana did not meet the Millennium Development Goal 4 of reducing child mortality by two-thirds and may not meet SDG (2030). There is a need to direct scarce resources to mitigate the impact of the most important risk factors influencing high neonatal deaths. This study applied both spatial and non-spatial regression models to explore the differential impact of environmental, maternal, and child associated risk factors on neonatal deaths in Ghana.MethodsThe study relied on data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) and the Ghana Maternal Health Survey (GMHS) conducted between 1998 and 2017 among 49,908 women of reproductive age and 31,367 children under five (GDHS-1998 = 3298, GDHS-2003 = 3844, GDHS-2008 = 2992, GDHS-2014 = 5884, GMHS-2017 = 15,349). Spatial Autoregressive Models that account for spatial autocorrelation in the data at the cluster-level and non-spatial statistical models with appropriate sampling weight adjustment were used to study factors associated with neonatal deaths, and a p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsPopulation density, multiple births, smaller household sizes, high parity, and low birth weight significantly increased the risk of neonatal deaths over the years. Among mothers who had multiple births, the risk of having neonatal deaths was approximately four times as high as the risk of neonatal deaths among mothers who had only single birth [aRR = 3.42, 95% CI: 1.63-7.17, p < 0.05]. Neonates who were perceived by their mothers to be small were at a higher risk of neonatal death compared to very large neonates [aRR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.19-3.63, p < 0.05]. A unit increase in the number of children born to a woman of reproductive age was associated with a 49% increased risk in neonatal deaths [aRR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.30-1.69, p < 0.05].ConclusionNeonatal mortality in Ghana remains relatively high, and the factors that predisposed children to neonatal death were birth size that were perceived to be small, low birth weight, higher parity, and multiple births. Improving pregnant women's nutritional patterns and providing special support to women who have multiple deliveries will reduce neonatal mortality in Ghana.

Dataset Information

Armed conflict and child mortality in Africa: a geospatial analysis.

Publications

Armed conflict and child mortality in Africa: a geospatial analysis.

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