Dataset Information

Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the potential drought impacts on agricultural production is critical for ensuring global food security. Instead of providing a deterministic estimate, this study investigates the likelihood of yield loss of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts of various intensities in the 10 largest producing countries. We use crop-country specific standardized precipitation index (SPI) and census yield data for 1961-2016 to build a probabilistic modeling framework for estimating yield loss risk under a moderate (-1.2?80% probability that wheat production will fall below its long-term average when experiencing an exceptional drought, especially in USA and Canada. As for maize, India shows the highest risk of yield reduction under droughts, while rice is the crop that is most vulnerable to droughts in Vietnam and Thailand. Risk of drought-driven soybean yield loss is the highest in USA, Russian and India. Yield loss risk tends to grow faster when experiencing a shift in drought severity from moderate to severe than that from extreme to the exceptional category, demonstrating the non-linear response of yield to the increase in drought severity. Sensitivity analysis shows that temperature plays an important role in determining drought impacts, through reducing or amplifying drought-driven yield loss risk. Compared to present conditions, an ensemble of 11 crop models simulated an increase in yield loss risk by 9%-12%, 5.6%-6.3%, 18.1%-19.4% and 15.1%-16.1 for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans by the end of 21st century, respectively, without considering the benefits of CO₂ fertilization and adaptations. This study highlights the non-linear response of yield loss risk to the increase in drought severity. This implies that adaptations should be more targeted, considering not only the crop type and region but also the specific drought severity of interest.

SUBMITTER: Leng G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6341212 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future.

Leng Guoyong G Hall Jim J

The Science of the total environment 20181105

Understanding the potential drought impacts on agricultural production is critical for ensuring global food security. Instead of providing a deterministic estimate, this study investigates the likelihood of yield loss of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts of various intensities in the 10 largest producing countries. We use crop-country specific standardized precipitation index (SPI) and census yield data for 1961-2016 to build a probabilistic modeling framework for estimatin ...[more]

PMID: 30448671

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Project description:Background. Up to 75% of crop species benefit at least to some degree from animal pollination for fruit or seed set and yield. However, basic information on the level of pollinator dependence and pollinator contribution to yield is lacking for many crops. Even less is known about how insect pollination affects crop quality. Given that habitat loss and agricultural intensification are known to decrease pollinator richness and abundance, there is a need to assess the consequences for different components of crop production. Methods. We used pollination exclusion on flowers or inflorescences on a whole plant basis to assess the contribution of insect pollination to crop yield and quality in four flowering crops (spring oilseed rape, field bean, strawberry, and buckwheat) located in four regions of Europe. For each crop, we recorded abundance and species richness of flower visiting insects in ten fields located along a gradient from simple to heterogeneous landscapes. Results. Insect pollination enhanced average crop yield between 18 and 71% depending on the crop. Yield quality was also enhanced in most crops. For instance, oilseed rape had higher oil and lower chlorophyll contents when adequately pollinated, the proportion of empty seeds decreased in buckwheat, and strawberries' commercial grade improved; however, we did not find higher nitrogen content in open pollinated field beans. Complex landscapes had a higher overall species richness of wild pollinators across crops, but visitation rates were only higher in complex landscapes for some crops. On the contrary, the overall yield was consistently enhanced by higher visitation rates, but not by higher pollinator richness. Discussion. For the four crops in this study, there is clear benefit delivered by pollinators on yield quantity and/or quality, but it is not maximized under current agricultural intensification. Honeybees, the most abundant pollinator, might partially compensate the loss of wild pollinators in some areas, but our results suggest the need of landscape-scale actions to enhance wild pollinator populations.

Dataset Information

Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future.

Publications

Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future.

Similar Datasets

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