Dataset Information

Migraine day frequency in migraine prevention: longitudinal modelling approaches.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Health economic models are critical tools to inform reimbursement agencies on health care interventions. Many clinical trials report outcomes using the frequency of an event over a set period of time, for example, the primary efficacy outcome in most clinical trials of migraine prevention is mean change in the frequency of migraine days (MDs) per 28?days (monthly MDs [MMD]) relative to baseline for active treatment versus placebo. Using these cohort-level endpoints in economic models, accounting for variation among patients is challenging. In this analysis, parametric models of change in MMD for migraine preventives were assessed using data from erenumab clinical studies. METHODS:MMD observations from the double-blind phases of two studies of erenumab were used: one in episodic migraine (EM) (NCT02456740) and one in chronic migraine (CM) (NCT02066415). For each trial, two longitudinal regression models were fitted: negative binomial and beta binomial. For a thorough comparison we also present the fitting from the standard multilevel Poisson and the zero inflated negative binomial. RESULTS:Using the erenumab study data, both the negative binomial and beta-binomial models provided unbiased estimates relative to observed trial data with well-fitting distribution at various time points. CONCLUSIONS:This proposed methodology, which has not been previously applied in migraine, has shown that these models may be suitable for estimating MMD frequency. Modelling MMD using negative binomial and beta-binomial distributions can be advantageous because these models can capture intra- and inter-patient variability so that trial observations can be modelled parametrically for the purposes of economic evaluation of migraine prevention. Such models have implications for use in a wide range of disease areas when assessing repeated measured utility values.

SUBMITTER: Di Tanna GL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6343253 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Migraine day frequency in migraine prevention: longitudinal modelling approaches.

Di Tanna Gian Luca GL Porter Joshua K JK Lipton Richard B RB Brennan Alan A Palmer Stephen S Hatswell Anthony J AJ Sapra Sandhya S Villa Guillermo G

BMC medical research methodology 20190123 1

<h4>Background</h4>Health economic models are critical tools to inform reimbursement agencies on health care interventions. Many clinical trials report outcomes using the frequency of an event over a set period of time, for example, the primary efficacy outcome in most clinical trials of migraine prevention is mean change in the frequency of migraine days (MDs) per 28 days (monthly MDs [MMD]) relative to baseline for active treatment versus placebo. Using these cohort-level endpoints in economic ...[more]

PMID: 30674285

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Project description:ObjectiveTo determine the onset of preventive efficacy with eptinezumab in patients with migraine.BackgroundEptinezumab is a monoclonal antibody inhibiting calcitonin gene-related peptide approved as an intravenously administered treatment for the prevention of migraine.MethodsPatients who received eptinezumab 100 mg, eptinezumab 300 mg, or placebo in PROMISE7-1 (episodic migraine; 100 mg, n = 221; 300 mg, n = 222; placebo, n = 222) or PROMISE7-2 (chronic migraine; 100 mg, n = 356; 300 mg, n = 350; placebo, n = 366) were included. Testing of the percentage of patients with a migraine on day 1 after dosing was prespecified and alpha-controlled. In further exploration of this prespecified endpoint, a post hoc closed testing procedure, which controlled the false-positive (type 1) error rate, provided a statistically rigorous evaluation of migraine prevention onset. The procedure involved up to 84 tests of significance, all of which were performed in sequence until the first nonsignificant result.ResultsFor both studies, all tests for significance for eptinezumab 100 and 300 mg, from days 1-84 through day 1 alone, achieved nominal significance (P < .05), indicating that eptinezumab was fully effective beginning on day 1. Over each interval, the treatment effect was comparable to the effect over weeks 1-12. Mean changes from baseline in monthly migraine days for the primary endpoint period ranged from -3.9 to -4.9, -4.1 to -4.9, and -2.2 to -3.2 for eptinezumab 100, 300 mg, and placebo, respectively, in PROMISE7-1 and from -7.2 to -8.0, -7.9 to -8.2, and -4.3 to -5.6, respectively, in PROMISE7-2. The difference from placebo (95% confidence interval) in day 1 treatment effect was -2.2 (-4.1, -0.3) and -2.5 (-4.4, -0.6) days/month for eptinezumab 100 and 300 mg, respectively, in PROMISE7-1, and was -3.8 (-5.6, -2.0) and -4.0 (-5.8, -2.1) days/month for 100 and 300 mg, respectively, in PROMISE7-2.ConclusionsThe migraine preventive effect of eptinezumab is rapid and sustained in patients with episodic or chronic migraine, with onset of optimal preventive efficacy observed on the day following the initial dose.

Project description:ObjectiveTo examine the cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular safety of erenumab across migraine prevention studies.MethodsVascular adverse events (AEs) and blood pressure data were integrated across 4 double-blind, placebo-controlled studies of erenumab and their open-label extensions in patients with chronic or episodic migraine. Subgroup analyses were conducted by acute migraine-specific medication use and number of vascular risk factors at baseline. Standardized search terms were used to identify vascular AEs (cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, or peripheral). An independent committee adjudicated whether targeted events were vascular in origin.ResultsIn placebo-controlled studies, 2,443 patients received placebo (n = 1,043), erenumab 70 mg (n = 893), or erenumab 140 mg (n = 507) subcutaneously once monthly. Regardless of acute migraine-specific medication use or vascular risk factors at baseline, AE incidence was similar across the placebo and erenumab treatment groups. Hypertension AEs were reported for 0.9% (placebo), 0.8% (erenumab 70 mg), and 0.2% (erenumab 140 mg) of patients. Vascular AEs, which were similar across double-blind and open-label treatment, generally were confounded, with plausible alternative etiologies. In 18 patients with events reviewed by the independent committee, 4 events were positively adjudicated as cardiovascular in origin: 2 deaths and 2 vascular events. All 4 positively adjudicated cardiovascular events occurred during open-label erenumab treatment.ConclusionSelective blockade of the canonical calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor with erenumab for migraine prevention had a vascular safety profile comparable to that of placebo over 12 weeks, with no increased emergence of events over time. Further study of long-term safety of erenumab in patients with migraine is needed.Clinicaltrialsgov identifiersNCT02066415, NCT02456740, NCT01952574, NCT02483585, NCT02174861, and NCT01723514.Classification of evidenceThis analysis provides Class II evidence that for patients with migraine, erenumab does not increase the risk of vascular AEs.

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Migraine day frequency in migraine prevention: longitudinal modelling approaches.

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Migraine day frequency in migraine prevention: longitudinal modelling approaches.

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