Dataset Information

Prediction of violent reoffending in prisoners and individuals on probation: a Dutch validation study (OxRec).

ABSTRACT: Scalable and transparent methods for risk assessment are increasingly required in criminal justice to inform decisions about sentencing, release, parole, and probation. However, few such approaches exist and their validation in external settings is typically lacking. A total national sample of all offenders (9072 released from prisoners and 6329 individuals on probation) from 2011-2012 in the Netherlands were followed up for violent and any reoffending over 2 years. The sample was mostly male (n?=?574 [6%] were female prisoners and n?=?784 [12%] were female probationers), and median ages were 30 in the prison sample and 34 in those on probation. Predictors for a scalable risk assessment tool (OxRec) were extracted from a routinely collected dataset used by criminal justice agencies, and outcomes from official criminal registers. OxRec's predictive performance in terms of discrimination and calibration was tested. Reoffending rates in the Dutch prisoner cohort were 16% for 2-year violent reoffending and 44% for 2-year any reoffending, with lower rates in the probation sample. Discrimination as measured by the c-index was moderate, at 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.70) for 2-year violent reoffending in prisoners and between 0.65 and 0.68 for other outcomes and the probation sample. The model required recalibration, after which calibration performance was adequate (e.g. calibration in the large was 1.0 for all scenarios). A recalibrated model for OxRec can be used in the Netherlands for individuals released from prison and individuals on probation to stratify their risk of future violent and any reoffending. The approach that we outline can be considered for external validations of criminal justice and clinical risk models.

SUBMITTER: Fazel S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6351626 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Prediction of violent reoffending in prisoners and individuals on probation: a Dutch validation study (OxRec).

Fazel Seena S Wolf Achim A Vazquez-Montes Maria D L A MDLA Fanshawe Thomas R TR

Scientific reports 20190129 1

Scalable and transparent methods for risk assessment are increasingly required in criminal justice to inform decisions about sentencing, release, parole, and probation. However, few such approaches exist and their validation in external settings is typically lacking. A total national sample of all offenders (9072 released from prisoners and 6329 individuals on probation) from 2011-2012 in the Netherlands were followed up for violent and any reoffending over 2 years. The sample was mostly male (n ...[more]

PMID: 30696902

Similar Datasets

Project description:Reoffending and presence of psychiatric disorders are common in prisoners worldwide. However, whether psychiatric disorders are risk factors for reoffending is still unknown. We aimed to examine the association between psychiatric disorders, including substance use disorder, and violent reoffending.We did a longitudinal cohort study of 47,326 prisoners who were imprisoned since Jan 1, 2000, and released before Dec 31, 2009, in Sweden. We obtained data for diagnosed psychiatric disorders from both inpatient and outpatient registers, and sociodemographic and criminological factors from other population-based registers. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for violent reoffending with Cox regression. To control for potential familial confounding, we compared sibling prisoners with and without psychiatric disorders. We calculated population attributable fraction to assess the population effect.Diagnosed psychiatric disorders were associated with an increased hazard of violent reoffending in male (adjusted HR 1·63 [95% CI 1·57-1·70]) and female (2·02 [1·54-2·63]) prisoners, and these associations were independent of measured sociodemographic and criminological factors, and, in men, remained substantial after adjustment for unmeasured familial factors (2·01 [1·66-2·43]). However, findings differed between individual diagnoses and sex. We found some evidence of stronger effects on violent reoffending of alcohol and drug use disorders and bipolar disorder than of other psychiatric disorders. Alcohol use disorder seemed to have a greater effect in women than in men (women 2·08 [1·66-2·60]; men 1·63 [1·56-1·71]). The overall effects of psychiatric disorders did not differ with severity of crime. The hazard of violent reoffending increased in a stepwise way with the number of diagnosed psychiatric disorders. Assuming causality, up to 20% (95% CI 19-22) of violent reoffending in men and 40% (27-52) in women was attributable to the diagnosed psychiatric disorders that we investigated.Certain psychiatric disorders are associated with a substantially increased hazard of violent reoffending. Because these disorders are prevalent and mostly treatable, improvements to prison mental health services could counteract the cycle of reoffending and improve both public health and safety. National violence prevention strategies should consider the role of prison health.Wellcome Trust, Swedish Research Council, and Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough around 70% of the world's prison population live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), risk assessment tools for criminal recidivism have been developed and validated in high-income countries (HICs). Validating such tools in LMIC settings is important for the risk management of people released from prison, development of evidence-based intervention programmes, and effective allocation of limited resources.MethodsWe aimed to externally validate a scalable risk assessment tool, the Oxford Risk of Recidivism (OxRec) tool, which was developed in Sweden, using data from a cohort of people released from prisons in Tajikistan. Data were collected from interviews (for predictors) and criminal records (for some predictors and main outcomes). Individuals were first interviewed in prison and then followed up over a 1-year period for post-release violent reoffending outcomes. We assessed the predictive performance of OxRec by testing discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; AUC) and calibration (calibration statistics and plots). In addition, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for different predetermined risk thresholds.ResultsThe cohort included 970 individuals released from prison. During the 12-month follow-up, 144 (15%) were reincarcerated for violent crimes. The original model performed well. The discriminative ability of OxRec Tajikistan was good (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI 0.66-0.75). The calibration plot suggested an underestimation of observed risk probabilities. However, after recalibration, model performance was improved (Brier score = 0.12; calibration in the large was 1.09). At a selected risk threshold of 15%, the tool had a sensitivity of 60%, specificity of 65%, PPV 23% and NPV 90%. In addition, OxRec was feasible to use, despite challenges to risk prediction in LMICs.ConclusionIn an external validation in a LMIC, the OxRec tool demonstrated good performance in multiple measures. OxRec could be used in Tajikistan to help prioritize interventions for people who are at high-risk of violent reoffending after incarceration and screen out others who are at lower risk of violent reoffending. The use of validated risk assessment tools in LMICs could improve risk stratification and inform the development of future interventions tailored at modifiable risk factors for recidivism, such as substance use and mental health problems.

Project description:Individuals released from prison have high rates of violent reoffending, and there is uncertainty about whether pharmacological treatments reduce reoffending risk.To investigate the associations between major classes of psychotropic medications and violent reoffending.This cohort study included all released prisoners in Sweden from July 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010, through linkage of population-based registers. Rates of violent reoffending during medicated periods were compared with rates during nonmedicated periods using within-individual analyses. Follow-up ended December 31, 2013.Periods with or without dispensed prescription of psychotropic medications (antipsychotics, antidepressants, psychostimulants, drugs used in addictive disorders, and antiepileptic drugs) after prison release. Prison-based psychological treatments were investigated as a secondary exposure.Violent crime after release from prison.The cohort included 22?275 released prisoners (mean [SD] age, 38 [13] years; 91.9% male). During follow-up (median, 4.6 years; interquartile range, 3.0-6.4 years), 4031 individuals (18.1%) had 5653 violent reoffenses. The within-individual hazard ratio (HR) associated with dispensed antipsychotics was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.39-0.88), based on 100 events in 1596 person-years during medicated periods and 1044 events in 11?026 person-years during nonmedicated periods, equating to a risk difference of 39.7 (95% CI, 11.3-57.7) fewer violent reoffenses per 1000 person-years. The within-individual HR associated with dispensed psychostimulants was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.40-0.98), based on 94 events in 1648 person-years during medicated periods and 513 events in 4553 person-years during nonmedicated periods, equating to a risk difference of 42.8 (95% CI, 2.2-67.6) fewer violent reoffenses per 1000 person-years. The within-individual HR associated with dispensed drugs for addictive disorders was 0.48 (95% CI, 0.23-0.97), based on 46 events in 1168 person-years during medicated periods and 1103 events in 15?725 person-years during nonmedicated periods, equating to a risk difference of 36.4 (95% CI, 2.1-54.0) fewer violent reoffenses per 1000 person-years. In contrast, antidepressants and antiepileptics were not significantly associated with violent reoffending rates (HR?=?1.09 [95% CI, 0.83-1.43] and 1.14 [95% CI, 0.79-1.65], respectively). The most common prison-based program was psychological treatments for substance abuse, associated with an HR of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.63-0.89), which equated to a risk difference of 23.2 (95% CI, 10.3-34.1) fewer violent reoffenses per 1000 person-years.Among released prisoners in Sweden, rates of violent reoffending were lower during periods when individiduals were dispensed antipsychotics, psychostimulants, and drugs for addictive disorders, compared with periods in which they were not dispensed these medications. Further research is needed to understand the causal nature of this association.

Dataset Information

Prediction of violent reoffending in prisoners and individuals on probation: a Dutch validation study (OxRec).

Publications

Prediction of violent reoffending in prisoners and individuals on probation: a Dutch validation study (OxRec).

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets