Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Aas W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6353995 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH4 ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH4 emissions and CH4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000-2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions-China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil-account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2008-2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.
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Project description:Changes in marine primary productivity are key to determine how climate change might impact marine ecosystems and fisheries. Satellite ocean color sensors provide coverage of global ocean chlorophyll with a combined record length of ~ 20 years. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models can inform on expected changes and are used here to constrain observational trend estimates and their uncertainty. We produce estimates of ocean surface chlorophyll trends, by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to form priors as a "first guess", which are then updated using satellite observations in a Bayesian spatio-temporal model. Regional chlorophyll trends are found to be significantly different from zero in 18/23 regions, in the range ± 1.8% year-1. A global average of these regional trends shows a net positive trend of 0.08 ± 0.35% year-1, highlighting the importance of considering chlorophyll changes at a regional level. We compare these results with estimates obtained with the commonly used "vague" prior, representing no independent knowledge; coupled model priors are shown to slightly reduce trend magnitude and uncertainties in most regions. The statistical model used here provides a robust framework for making best use of all available information and can be applied to improve understanding of global change.
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Project description:We conduct textual analysis of a sample of more than 200,000 papers written on HIV/AIDS during the past three decades. Using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation method, we disentangle studies that address behavioral and social aspects from other studies and measure the trends of different topics as related to HIV/AIDS. We show that there is a regional variation in scientists' approach to the problem of HIV/AIDS. Our results show that controlling for the economy, proximity to the HIV/AIDS problem correlates with the extent to which scientists look at the behavioral and social aspects of the disease rather than biomedical.
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Project description:Since the World War II, many economies have transitioned from an agrarian, biomass-based to an industrial, minerals-based metabolic regime. Since 1950, world population grew by factor 2.7 and global material consumption by factor 3.7-71 Gigatonnes per year in 2010. The expansion of the resource base required by human societies is associated with growing pressure on the environment and infringement on the habitats of other species. In order to achieve a sustainability transition, we require a better understanding of the currently ongoing metabolic transition and its potential inertia. In this article, we present a long-term global material flow dataset covering material extraction, trade, and consumption of 177 individual countries between 1950 and 2010. We trace patterns and trends in material flows for six major geographic and economic country groupings and world regions (Western Industrial, the (Former) Soviet Union and its allies, Asia, the Middle East and Northern Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa) as well as their contribution to the emergence of a global metabolic profile during a period of rapid industrialization and globalization. Global average material use increased from 5.0 to 10.3 tons per capita and year (t/cap/a) between 1950 and 2010. Regional metabolic rates range from 4.5 t/cap/a in Sub-Saharan Africa to 14.8 t/cap/a in the Western Industrial grouping. While we can observe a stabilization of the industrial metabolic profile composed of relatively equal shares of biomass, fossil energy carriers, and construction minerals, we note differences in the degree to which other regions are gravitating toward a similar form of material use. Since 2000, Asia has overtaken the Western Industrial grouping in terms of its share in global resource use although not in terms of its per capita material consumption. We find that at a sub-global level, the roles of the world regions have changed. There are, however, no signs yet that this will lead to stabilization or even a reduction of global resource use.
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Project description:UnlabelledBackgroundOverweight and obesity prevalence are commonly used for public and policy communication of the extent of the obesity epidemic, yet comparable estimates of trends in overweight and obesity prevalence by country are not available.MethodsWe estimated trends between 1980 and 2008 in overweight and obesity prevalence and their uncertainty for adults 20 years of age and older in 199 countries and territories. Data were from a previous study, which used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean body mass index (BMI) based on published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiologic studies. Here, we used the estimated mean BMIs in a regression model to predict overweight and obesity prevalence by age, country, year, and sex. The uncertainty of the estimates included both those of the Bayesian hierarchical model and the uncertainty due to cross-walking from mean BMI to overweight and obesity prevalence.ResultsThe global age-standardized prevalence of obesity nearly doubled from 6.4% (95% uncertainty interval 5.7-7.2%) in 1980 to 12.0% (11.5-12.5%) in 2008. Half of this rise occurred in the 20 years between 1980 and 2000, and half occurred in the 8 years between 2000 and 2008. The age-standardized prevalence of overweight increased from 24.6% (22.7-26.7%) to 34.4% (33.2-35.5%) during the same 28-year period. In 2008, female obesity prevalence ranged from 1.4% (0.7-2.2%) in Bangladesh and 1.5% (0.9-2.4%) in Madagascar to 70.4% (61.9-78.9%) in Tonga and 74.8% (66.7-82.1%) in Nauru. Male obesity was below 1% in Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia, and was highest in Cook Islands (60.1%, 52.6-67.6%) and Nauru (67.9%, 60.5-75.0%).ConclusionsGlobally, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased since 1980, and the increase has accelerated. Although obesity increased in most countries, levels and trends varied substantially. These data on trends in overweight and obesity may be used to set targets for obesity prevalence as requested at the United Nations high-level meeting on Prevention and Control of NCDs.
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Project description:Background No comprehensive studies have been published on the global burden of alopecia areata since 2010. Objective We aimed to measure the global, regional, and national incidence of alopecia areata and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) value from 1990 to 2019. Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify temporal trends in the age-standardized rates of alopecia areata incidence and DALYs. The correlations between EAPCs in the age-standardized rates and SDI values were also analyzed. Results From 1990 to 2019, the alopecia areata incidence number and the associated number of DALYs increased globally by 49.14%, and 49.51%, respectively. The global age-standardized incidence rate decreased (EAPC, −0.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], −0.13 to −0.12) and the age-standardized DALY rate showed a downward trend (EAPC, −0.12; 95% CI, −0.13 to −0.11). The largest increases in the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate were observed in Low SDI quintile and Western Sub-Saharan Africa regions. The regions with the greatest changes in the incidence of alopecia areata were Central Sub-Saharan Africa and Western Sub-Saharan Africa. The three countries with the largest increases in alopecia areata incidence from 1990 to 2019 were Kuwait (EAPC, 0.15), South Sudan (EAPC, 0.12), and Nigeria (EAPC, 0.11). The age-standardized incidence rate was higher in females than in males. Conclusion Globally, both the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate of alopecia areata showed decreasing trends. Future preventive strategies should focus on low-income countries, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, Kuwait, South Sudan, Nigeria.
| S-EPMC9331164 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReal-time surveillance of search behavior on the internet has achieved accessibility in measuring disease activity. In this study, we systematically assessed the associations between internet search trends of gastrointestinal (GI) symptom terms and daily newly confirmed COVID-19 cases at both global and regional levels.MethodsRelative search volumes (RSVs) of GI symptom terms were derived from internet search engines. Time-series analyses with autoregressive integrated moving average models were conducted to fit and forecast the RSV trends of each GI symptom term before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Generalized additive models were used to quantify the effects of RSVs of GI symptom terms on the incidence of COVID-19. In addition, dose-response analyses were applied to estimate the shape of the associations.ResultsThe RSVs of GI symptom terms could be characterized by seasonal variation and a high correlation with symptoms of "fever" and "cough" at both global and regional levels; in particular, "diarrhea" and "loss of taste" were abnormally increased during the outbreak period of COVID-19, with elevated point changes of 1.31 and 8 times, respectively. In addition, these symptom terms could effectively predict a COVID-19 outbreak in advance, underlying the lag correlation at 12 and 5 days, respectively, and with mutual independence. The dose-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily COVID-19 risk with increasing search volumes of "diarrhea" and "loss of taste".ConclusionThis is the first and largest epidemiologic study that comprehensively revealed the advanced prediction of COVID-19 outbreaks at both global and regional levels via GI symptom indicators.
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Project description:Trends in short-lived high-temperature extremes record a different dimension of change than the extensively studied annual and seasonal mean daily temperatures. They also have important socioeconomic, environmental, and human health implications. Here, we present analysis of the highest temperature of the year for approximately 9000 stations globally, focusing on quantifying spatially explicit exceedance probabilities during the recent 50- and 30-year periods. A global increase of 0.19°C per decade during the past 50 years (through 2015) accelerated to 0.25°C per decade during the last 30 years, a faster increase than in the mean annual temperature. Strong positive 30-year trends are detected in large regions of Eurasia and Australia with rates higher than 0.60°C per decade. In cities with more than 5 million inhabitants, where most heat-related fatalities occur, the average change is 0.33°C per decade, while some east Asia cities, Paris, Moscow, and Houston have experienced changes higher than 0.60°C per decade.
| S-EPMC5838410 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Carbonyl sulfide (OCS), the most abundant sulfur-containing gas in the atmosphere, is used as a proxy for photosynthesis rate estimation. However, a large missing source of atmospheric OCS has been inferred. Sulfur isotope measurements (34S/32S ratio and δ 34S) on OCS are a feasible tool to distinguish OCS sources from oceanic and anthropogenic emissions. Here we present the latitudinal (north-south) observations of OCS concentration and [Formula: see text]S within Japan. The observed [Formula: see text]S of OCS of 9.7 to 14.5‰ reflects source and sink effects. Particularly in winter, latitudinal decreases in [Formula: see text]S values of OCS were found to be correlated with increases in OCS concentrations, resulting an intercept of (4.7 ± 0.8)‰ in the Keeling plot approach. This result implies the transport of anthropogenic OCS emissions from the Asian continent to the western Pacific by the Asian monsoon outflow. The estimated background [Formula: see text]S of OCS in eastern Asia is consistent with the [Formula: see text]S of OCS previously reported in Israel and the Canary Islands, suggesting that the background [Formula: see text]S of OCS in the Northern Hemisphere ranges from 12.0 to 13.5‰. Our constructed sulfur isotopic mass balance of OCS revealed that anthropogenic sources, not merely oceanic sources, account for much of the missing source of atmospheric OCS.
| S-EPMC7456067 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLeukemias are a group of life-threatening malignant disorders of the blood and bone marrow. The incidence of leukemia varies by pathological types and among different populations.MethodsWe retrieved the incidence data for leukemia by sex, age, location, calendar year, and type from the Global Burden of Disease online database. The estimated average percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify the trends of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leukemia from 1990 to 2017.ResultsGlobally, while the number of newly diagnosed leukemia cases increased from 354.5 thousand in 1990 to 518.5 thousand in 2017, the ASIR decreased by 0.43% per year. The number of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) cases worldwide increased from 49.1 thousand in 1990 to 64.2 thousand in 2017, whereas the ASIR experienced a decrease (EAPC = - 0.08, 95% CI - 0.15, - 0.02). Between 1990 and 2017, there were 55, 29, and 111 countries or territories that experienced a significant increase, remained stable, and experienced a significant decrease in ASIR of ALL, respectively. The case of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has increased more than twice between 1990 and 2017. The ASIR of CLL increased by 0.46% per year from 1990 to 2017. More than 85% of all countries saw an increase in ASIR of CLL. In 1990, acute myeloid leukemia (AML) accounted for 18.0% of the total leukemia cases worldwide. This proportion increased to 23.1% in 2017. The ASIR of AML increased from 1.35/100,000 to 1.54/100,000, with an EAPC of 0.56 (95% CI 0.49, 0.62). A total of 127 countries or territories experienced a significant increase in the ASIR of AML. The number of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) cases increased from 31.8 thousand in 1990 to 34.2 thousand in 2017. The ASIR of CML decreased from 0.75/100,000 to 0.43/100,000. A total of 141 countries or territories saw a decrease in ASIR of CML.ConclusionsA significant decrease in leukemia incidence was observed between 1990 and 2017. However, in the same period, the incidence rates of AML and CLL significantly increased in most countries, suggesting that both types of leukemia might become a major global public health concern.
| S-EPMC7304189 | biostudies-literature