Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Aas W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6353995 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:UnlabelledBackgroundOverweight and obesity prevalence are commonly used for public and policy communication of the extent of the obesity epidemic, yet comparable estimates of trends in overweight and obesity prevalence by country are not available.MethodsWe estimated trends between 1980 and 2008 in overweight and obesity prevalence and their uncertainty for adults 20 years of age and older in 199 countries and territories. Data were from a previous study, which used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean body mass index (BMI) based on published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiologic studies. Here, we used the estimated mean BMIs in a regression model to predict overweight and obesity prevalence by age, country, year, and sex. The uncertainty of the estimates included both those of the Bayesian hierarchical model and the uncertainty due to cross-walking from mean BMI to overweight and obesity prevalence.ResultsThe global age-standardized prevalence of obesity nearly doubled from 6.4% (95% uncertainty interval 5.7-7.2%) in 1980 to 12.0% (11.5-12.5%) in 2008. Half of this rise occurred in the 20 years between 1980 and 2000, and half occurred in the 8 years between 2000 and 2008. The age-standardized prevalence of overweight increased from 24.6% (22.7-26.7%) to 34.4% (33.2-35.5%) during the same 28-year period. In 2008, female obesity prevalence ranged from 1.4% (0.7-2.2%) in Bangladesh and 1.5% (0.9-2.4%) in Madagascar to 70.4% (61.9-78.9%) in Tonga and 74.8% (66.7-82.1%) in Nauru. Male obesity was below 1% in Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia, and was highest in Cook Islands (60.1%, 52.6-67.6%) and Nauru (67.9%, 60.5-75.0%).ConclusionsGlobally, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased since 1980, and the increase has accelerated. Although obesity increased in most countries, levels and trends varied substantially. These data on trends in overweight and obesity may be used to set targets for obesity prevalence as requested at the United Nations high-level meeting on Prevention and Control of NCDs.
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Project description:Background No comprehensive studies have been published on the global burden of alopecia areata since 2010. Objective We aimed to measure the global, regional, and national incidence of alopecia areata and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) value from 1990 to 2019. Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify temporal trends in the age-standardized rates of alopecia areata incidence and DALYs. The correlations between EAPCs in the age-standardized rates and SDI values were also analyzed. Results From 1990 to 2019, the alopecia areata incidence number and the associated number of DALYs increased globally by 49.14%, and 49.51%, respectively. The global age-standardized incidence rate decreased (EAPC, −0.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], −0.13 to −0.12) and the age-standardized DALY rate showed a downward trend (EAPC, −0.12; 95% CI, −0.13 to −0.11). The largest increases in the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate were observed in Low SDI quintile and Western Sub-Saharan Africa regions. The regions with the greatest changes in the incidence of alopecia areata were Central Sub-Saharan Africa and Western Sub-Saharan Africa. The three countries with the largest increases in alopecia areata incidence from 1990 to 2019 were Kuwait (EAPC, 0.15), South Sudan (EAPC, 0.12), and Nigeria (EAPC, 0.11). The age-standardized incidence rate was higher in females than in males. Conclusion Globally, both the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate of alopecia areata showed decreasing trends. Future preventive strategies should focus on low-income countries, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, Kuwait, South Sudan, Nigeria.
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Project description:BackgroundReal-time surveillance of search behavior on the internet has achieved accessibility in measuring disease activity. In this study, we systematically assessed the associations between internet search trends of gastrointestinal (GI) symptom terms and daily newly confirmed COVID-19 cases at both global and regional levels.MethodsRelative search volumes (RSVs) of GI symptom terms were derived from internet search engines. Time-series analyses with autoregressive integrated moving average models were conducted to fit and forecast the RSV trends of each GI symptom term before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Generalized additive models were used to quantify the effects of RSVs of GI symptom terms on the incidence of COVID-19. In addition, dose-response analyses were applied to estimate the shape of the associations.ResultsThe RSVs of GI symptom terms could be characterized by seasonal variation and a high correlation with symptoms of "fever" and "cough" at both global and regional levels; in particular, "diarrhea" and "loss of taste" were abnormally increased during the outbreak period of COVID-19, with elevated point changes of 1.31 and 8 times, respectively. In addition, these symptom terms could effectively predict a COVID-19 outbreak in advance, underlying the lag correlation at 12 and 5 days, respectively, and with mutual independence. The dose-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily COVID-19 risk with increasing search volumes of "diarrhea" and "loss of taste".ConclusionThis is the first and largest epidemiologic study that comprehensively revealed the advanced prediction of COVID-19 outbreaks at both global and regional levels via GI symptom indicators.
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Project description:Carbonyl sulfide (OCS), the most abundant sulfur-containing gas in the atmosphere, is used as a proxy for photosynthesis rate estimation. However, a large missing source of atmospheric OCS has been inferred. Sulfur isotope measurements (34S/32S ratio and δ 34S) on OCS are a feasible tool to distinguish OCS sources from oceanic and anthropogenic emissions. Here we present the latitudinal (north-south) observations of OCS concentration and [Formula: see text]S within Japan. The observed [Formula: see text]S of OCS of 9.7 to 14.5‰ reflects source and sink effects. Particularly in winter, latitudinal decreases in [Formula: see text]S values of OCS were found to be correlated with increases in OCS concentrations, resulting an intercept of (4.7 ± 0.8)‰ in the Keeling plot approach. This result implies the transport of anthropogenic OCS emissions from the Asian continent to the western Pacific by the Asian monsoon outflow. The estimated background [Formula: see text]S of OCS in eastern Asia is consistent with the [Formula: see text]S of OCS previously reported in Israel and the Canary Islands, suggesting that the background [Formula: see text]S of OCS in the Northern Hemisphere ranges from 12.0 to 13.5‰. Our constructed sulfur isotopic mass balance of OCS revealed that anthropogenic sources, not merely oceanic sources, account for much of the missing source of atmospheric OCS.
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