Ebola Virus Bayesian Machine Learning Models Enable New in Vitro Leads.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Anantpadma M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6356859 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The search for small molecule inhibitors of Ebola virus (EBOV) has led to several high throughput screens over the past 3 years. These have identified a range of FDA-approved active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) with anti-EBOV activity in vitro and several of which are also active in a mouse infection model. There are millions of additional commercially-available molecules that could be screened for potential activities as anti-EBOV compounds. One way to prioritize compounds for testing is to generate computational models based on the high throughput screening data and then virtually screen compound libraries. In the current study, we have generated Bayesian machine learning models with viral pseudotype entry assay and the EBOV replication assay data. We have validated the models internally and externally. We have also used these models to computationally score the MicroSource library of drugs to select those likely to be potential inhibitors. Three of the highest scoring molecules that were not in the model training sets, quinacrine, pyronaridine and tilorone, were tested in vitro and had EC 50 values of 350, 420 and 230 nM, respectively. Pyronaridine is a component of a combination therapy for malaria that was recently approved by the European Medicines Agency, which may make it more readily accessible for clinical testing. Like other known antimalarial drugs active against EBOV, it shares the 4-aminoquinoline scaffold. Tilorone, is an investigational antiviral agent that has shown a broad array of biological activities including cell growth inhibition in cancer cells, antifibrotic properties, α7 nicotinic receptor agonist activity, radioprotective activity and activation of hypoxia inducible factor-1. Quinacrine is an antimalarial but also has use as an anthelmintic. Our results suggest data sets with less than 1,000 molecules can produce validated machine learning models that can in turn be utilized to identify novel EBOV inhibitors in vitro.
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Project description:Ebola virus is a deadly pathogen responsible for a frequent series of outbreaks since 1976. Despite various efforts from researchers worldwide, its mortality and fatality are quite high. For antiviral drug discovery, the computational efforts are considered highly useful. Therefore, we have developed an 'anti-Ebola' web server, through quantitative structure-activity relationship information of available molecules with experimental anti-Ebola activities. Three hundred and five unique anti-Ebola compounds with their respective IC50 values were extracted from the 'DrugRepV' database. Later, the compounds were used to extract the molecular descriptors, which were subjected to regression-based model development. The robust machine learning techniques, namely support vector machine, random forest and artificial neural network, were employed using tenfold cross-validation. After a randomization approach, the best predictive model showed Pearson's correlation coefficient ranges from 0.83 to 0.98 on training/testing (T274) dataset. The robustness of the developed models was cross-evaluated using William's plot. The highly robust computational models are integrated into the web server. The 'anti-Ebola' web server is freely available at https://bioinfo.imtech.res.in/manojk/antiebola . We anticipate this will serve the scientific community for developing effective inhibitors against the Ebola virus.
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Project description:Integrated computational approaches for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) are useful to identify new molecules that could lead to future tuberculosis (TB) drugs. Our approach uses information derived from the TBCyc pathway and genome database, the Collaborative Drug Discovery TB database combined with 3D pharmacophores and dual event Bayesian models of whole-cell activity and lack of cytotoxicity. We have prioritized a large number of molecules that may act as mimics of substrates and metabolites in the TB metabolome. We computationally searched over 200,000 commercial molecules using 66 pharmacophores based on substrates and metabolites from Mtb and further filtering with Bayesian models. We ultimately tested 110 compounds in vitro that resulted in two compounds of interest, BAS 04912643 and BAS 00623753 (MIC of 2.5 and 5 μg/mL, respectively). These molecules were used as a starting point for hit-to-lead optimization. The most promising class proved to be the quinoxaline di-N-oxides, evidenced by transcriptional profiling to induce mRNA level perturbations most closely resembling known protonophores. One of these, SRI58 exhibited an MIC = 1.25 μg/mL versus Mtb and a CC50 in Vero cells of >40 μg/mL, while featuring fair Caco-2 A-B permeability (2.3 x 10-6 cm/s), kinetic solubility (125 μM at pH 7.4 in PBS) and mouse metabolic stability (63.6% remaining after 1 h incubation with mouse liver microsomes). Despite demonstration of how a combined bioinformatics/cheminformatics approach afforded a small molecule with promising in vitro profiles, we found that SRI58 did not exhibit quantifiable blood levels in mice.
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Project description:Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that is a major cause of infant mortality. Identifying the pneumococcal serotype is an important step in monitoring the impact of vaccines used to protect against disease. Genomic microarrays provide an effective method for molecular serotyping. Previously we developed an empirical Bayesian model for the classification of serotypes from a molecular serotyping array. With only few samples available, a model driven approach was the only option. In the meanwhile, several thousand samples have been made available to us, providing an opportunity to investigate serotype classification by machine learning methods, which could complement the Bayesian model.We compare the performance of the original Bayesian model with two machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machines and Random Forests. We present our results as an example of a generic strategy whereby a preliminary probabilistic model is complemented or replaced by a machine learning classifier once enough data are available. Despite the availability of thousands of serotyping arrays, a problem encountered when applying machine learning methods is the lack of training data containing mixtures of serotypes; due to the large number of possible combinations. Most of the available training data comprises samples with only a single serotype. To overcome the lack of training data we implemented an iterative analysis, creating artificial training data of serotype mixtures by combining raw data from single serotype arrays.With the enhanced training set the machine learning algorithms out perform the original Bayesian model. However, for serotypes currently lacking sufficient training data the best performing implementation was a combination of the results of the Bayesian Model and the Gradient Boosting Machine. As well as being an effective method for classifying biological data, machine learning can also be used as an efficient method for revealing subtle biological insights, which we illustrate with an example.
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Project description:Combining different drugs synergistically is an essential aspect of developing effective treatments. Although there is a plethora of research on computational prediction for new combination therapies, there is limited to no research on combination therapies in the treatment of viral diseases. This paper proposes AI-based models for predicting novel antiviral combinations to treat virus diseases synergistically. To do this, we assembled a comprehensive dataset comprising information on viral strains, drug compounds, and their known interactions. As far as we know, this is the first dataset and learning model on combination therapy for viruses. Our proposal includes using a random forest model, an SVM model, and a deep model to train viral combination therapy. The machine learning models showed the highest performance, and the predicted values were validated by a t-test, indicating the effectiveness of the proposed methods. One of the predicted combinations of acyclovir and ribavirin has been experimentally confirmed to have a synergistic antiviral effect against herpes simplex type-1 virus, as described in the literature.
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Project description:BackgroundEbola virus disease (EVD) plagues low-resource and difficult-to-access settings. Machine learning prognostic models and mHealth tools could improve the understanding and use of evidence-based care guidelines in such settings. However, data incompleteness and lack of interoperability limit model generalizability. This study harmonizes diverse datasets from the 2014-16 EVD epidemic and generates several prognostic models incorporated into the novel Ebola Care Guidelines app that provides informed access to recommended evidence-based guidelines.MethodsMultivariate logistic regression was applied to investigate survival outcomes in 470 patients admitted to five Ebola treatment units in Liberia and Sierra Leone at various timepoints during 2014-16. We generated a parsimonious model (viral load, age, temperature, bleeding, jaundice, dyspnea, dysphagia, and time-to-presentation) and several fallback models for when these variables are unavailable. All were externally validated against two independent datasets and compared to further models including expert observational wellness assessments. Models were incorporated into an app highlighting the signs/symptoms with the largest contribution to prognosis.FindingsThe parsimonious model approached the predictive power of observational assessments by experienced clinicians (Area-Under-the-Curve, AUC = 0.70-0.79, accuracy = 0.64-0.74) and maintained its performance across subcohorts with different healthcare seeking behaviors. Age and viral load contributed > 5-fold the weighting of other features and including them in a minimal model had a similar AUC, albeit at the cost of specificity.InterpretationClinically guided prognostic models can recapitulate clinical expertise and be useful when such expertise is unavailable. Incorporating these models into mHealth tools may facilitate their interpretation and provide informed access to comprehensive clinical guidelines.FundingHoward Hughes Medical Institute, US National Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, International Medical Corps, UK Department for International Development, and GOAL Global.
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Project description:BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:MR imaging-based modeling of tumor cell density can substantially improve targeted treatment of glioblastoma. Unfortunately, interpatient variability limits the predictive ability of many modeling approaches. We present a transfer learning method that generates individualized patient models, grounded in the wealth of population data, while also detecting and adjusting for interpatient variabilities based on each patient's own histologic data. MATERIALS AND METHODS:We recruited patients with primary glioblastoma undergoing image-guided biopsies and preoperative imaging, including contrast-enhanced MR imaging, dynamic susceptibility contrast MR imaging, and diffusion tensor imaging. We calculated relative cerebral blood volume from DSC-MR imaging and mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy from DTI. Following image coregistration, we assessed tumor cell density for each biopsy and identified corresponding localized MR imaging measurements. We then explored a range of univariate and multivariate predictive models of tumor cell density based on MR imaging measurements in a generalized one-model-fits-all approach. We then implemented both univariate and multivariate individualized transfer learning predictive models, which harness the available population-level data but allow individual variability in their predictions. Finally, we compared Pearson correlation coefficients and mean absolute error between the individualized transfer learning and generalized one-model-fits-all models. RESULTS:Tumor cell density significantly correlated with relative CBV (r = 0.33, P < .001), and T1-weighted postcontrast (r = 0.36, P < .001) on univariate analysis after correcting for multiple comparisons. With single-variable modeling (using relative CBV), transfer learning increased predictive performance (r = 0.53, mean absolute error = 15.19%) compared with one-model-fits-all (r = 0.27, mean absolute error = 17.79%). With multivariate modeling, transfer learning further improved performance (r = 0.88, mean absolute error = 5.66%) compared with one-model-fits-all (r = 0.39, mean absolute error = 16.55%). CONCLUSIONS:Transfer learning significantly improves predictive modeling performance for quantifying tumor cell density in glioblastoma.
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Project description:Yellow fever virus (YFV) is the agent of the most severe mosquito-borne disease in the tropics. Recently, Brazil suffered major YFV outbreaks with a high fatality rate affecting areas where the virus has not been reported for decades, consisting of urban areas where a large number of unvaccinated people live. We developed a machine learning framework combining three different algorithms (XGBoost, random forest and regularized logistic regression) to analyze YFV genomic sequences. This method was applied to 56 YFV sequences from human infections and 27 from non-human primate (NHPs) infections to investigate the presence of genetic signatures possibly related to disease severity (in human related sequences) and differences in PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values (in NHP related sequences). Our analyses reveal four non-synonymous single nucleotide variations (SNVs) on sequences from human infections, in proteins NS3 (E614D), NS4a (I69V), NS5 (R727G, V643A) and six non-synonymous SNVs on NHP sequences, in proteins E (L385F), NS1 (A171V), NS3 (I184V) and NS5 (N11S, I374V, E641D). We performed comparative protein structural analysis on these SNVs, describing possible impacts on protein function. Despite the fact that the dataset is limited in size and that this study does not consider virus-host interactions, our work highlights the use of machine learning as a versatile and fast initial approach to genomic data exploration.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Diabetes Mellitus is an increasingly prevalent chronic disease characterized by the body's inability to metabolize glucose. The objective of this study was to build an effective predictive model with high sensitivity and selectivity to better identify Canadian patients at risk of having Diabetes Mellitus based on patient demographic data and the laboratory results during their visits to medical facilities. METHODS:Using the most recent records of 13,309 Canadian patients aged between 18 and 90 years, along with their laboratory information (age, sex, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein), we built predictive models using Logistic Regression and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) techniques. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory capability of these models. We used the adjusted threshold method and the class weight method to improve sensitivity - the proportion of Diabetes Mellitus patients correctly predicted by the model. We also compared these models to other learning machine techniques such as Decision Tree and Random Forest. RESULTS:The AROC for the proposed GBM model is 84.7% with a sensitivity of 71.6% and the AROC for the proposed Logistic Regression model is 84.0% with a sensitivity of 73.4%. The GBM and Logistic Regression models perform better than the Random Forest and Decision Tree models. CONCLUSIONS:The ability of our model to predict patients with Diabetes using some commonly used lab results is high with satisfactory sensitivity. These models can be built into an online computer program to help physicians in predicting patients with future occurrence of diabetes and providing necessary preventive interventions. The model is developed and validated on the Canadian population which is more specific and powerful to apply on Canadian patients than existing models developed from US or other populations. Fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides were the most important predictors in these models.
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Project description:Abstract We consider inference from nonrandom samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized prediction approach that predicts the outcomes in the population using a large number of auxiliary variables such that the ignorability assumption is reasonable and the Bayesian framework is straightforward for quantification of uncertainty. Besides the auxiliary variables, we also extend the approach by estimating the propensity score for a unit to be included in the sample and also including it as a predictor in the machine learning models. We find in simulation studies that the regularized predictions using soft Bayesian additive regression trees yield valid inference for the population means and coverage rates close to the nominal levels. We demonstrate the application of the proposed methods using two different real data applications, one in a survey and one in an epidemiologic study.
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