Dataset Information

Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars - An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions.

ABSTRACT: This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23?±?2% and 32?±?2% for electric cars and 6?±?1% and 37?±?2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7?±?1 million electric cars and 5?±?1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NOX and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure.

SUBMITTER: Weiss M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6358050 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars - An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO<sub>2</sub> and air pollutant emissions.

Weiss Martin M Zerfass Andreas A Helmers Eckard E

Journal of cleaner production 20190301

This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ± 1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The ...[more]

PMID: 30828137

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Project description:Passenger cars are an important source of air pollution, especially in urban areas. Recently, real-driving emissions (RDE) test procedures have been introduced in the EU aiming to evaluate nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate number (PN) emissions from passenger cars during on-road operation. Although RDE accounts for a large variety of real-world driving, it excludes certain driving situations by setting boundary conditions (e.g., in relation to altitude, temperature or dynamic driving). The present work investigates the on-road emissions of NOx, NO2, CO, particle number (PN) and CO2 from a fleet of 19 Euro 6b, 6c and 6d-TEMP vehicles, including diesel, gasoline (GDI and PFI) and compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles. The vehicles were tested under different on-road driving conditions outside boundaries. These included 'baseline' tests, but also testing conditions beyond the RDE boundary conditions to investigate the performance of the emissions control devices in demanding situations. Consistently low average emission rates of PN and CO were measured from all diesel vehicles tested under most conditions. Moreover, the tested Euro 6d-TEMP and Euro 6c diesel vehicles met the NOx emission limits applicable to Euro 6d-TEMP diesel vehicles during RDE tests (168?mg/km). The Euro 6b GDI vehicle equipped with a gasoline particulate filter (GPF) presented PN emissions?<?6?×?1011 #/km. These results, in contrast with previous on-road measurements from earlier Euro 6 vehicles, indicate more efficient emission control technologies are currently being used in diesel and gasoline vehicles. At the same time, the results suggest that particular attention should be given to CO and PN emissions of certain types of vehicles when driven under dynamic conditions, and possibly additional work is necessary. In particular, the emissions of CO (measured in this study during the regulated RDE test, but without an emission limit associated to it) or PN from PFI vehicles (presently not covered by the Euro 6 standard) showed elevated results in some occasions. Emissions of CO were up to 7.5 times higher when the more dynamic tests were conducted and the highest PN emissions were measured from a PFI gasoline vehicle during dynamic driving. Although based on a limited sample of cars, our work points to the relevance of a technology- and fuel-neutral approach to vehicle emission standards, whereby all vehicles must comply with the same emission limits for all pollutants.

Dataset Information

Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars - An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions.

Publications

Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars - An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO<sub>2</sub> and air pollutant emissions.

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