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Collider bias and the apparent protective effect of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency on cerebral malaria.

ABSTRACT: Case fatality rates in severe falciparum malaria depend on the pattern and degree of vital organ dysfunction. Recent large-scale case-control analyses of pooled severe malaria data reported that glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) was protective against cerebral malaria but increased the risk of severe malarial anaemia. A novel formulation of the balancing selection hypothesis was proposed as an explanation for these findings, whereby the selective advantage is driven by the competing risks of death from cerebral malaria and death from severe malarial anaemia. We re-analysed these claims using causal diagrams and showed that they are subject to collider bias. A simulation based sensitivity analysis, varying the strength of the known effect of G6PDd on anaemia, showed that this bias is sufficient to explain all of the observed association. Future genetic epidemiology studies in severe malaria would benefit from the use of causal reasoning.

SUBMITTER: Watson JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6361583 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Collider bias and the apparent protective effect of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency on cerebral malaria.

Watson James A JA Leopold Stije J SJ Simpson Julie A JA Day Nicholas Pj NP Dondorp Arjen M AM White Nicholas J NJ

eLife 20190128

Case fatality rates in severe falciparum malaria depend on the pattern and degree of vital organ dysfunction. Recent large-scale case-control analyses of pooled severe malaria data reported that glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) was protective against cerebral malaria but increased the risk of severe malarial anaemia. A novel formulation of the balancing selection hypothesis was proposed as an explanation for these findings, whereby the selective advantage is driven by the com ...[more]

PMID: 30688212

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Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization recommends that primaquine should be given once weekly for 8-weeks to patients with Plasmodium vivax malaria and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, but data on its antirelapse efficacy and safety are limited.MethodsWithin the context of a multicentre, randomised clinical trial of two primaquine regimens in P. vivax malaria, patients with G6PD deficiency were excluded and enrolled into a separate 12-month observational study. They were treated with a weekly dose of 0.75 mg/kg primaquine for 8 weeks (PQ8W) plus dihydroartemisinin piperaquine (Indonesia) or chloroquine (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Vietnam). G6PD status was diagnosed using the fluorescent spot test and confirmed by genotyping for locally prevalent G6PD variants. The risk of P. vivax recurrence following PQ8W and the consequent haematological recovery were characterized in all patients and in patients with genotypically confirmed G6PD variants, and compared with the patients enrolled in the main randomised control trial.ResultsBetween July 2014 and November 2017, 42 male and 8 female patients were enrolled in Afghanistan (6), Ethiopia (5), Indonesia (19), and Vietnam (20). G6PD deficiency was confirmed by genotyping in 31 patients: Viangchan (14), Mediterranean (4), 357A-G (3), Canton (2), Kaiping (2), and one each for A-, Chatham, Gaohe, Ludhiana, Orissa, and Vanua Lava. Two patients had recurrent P. vivax parasitaemia (days 68 and 207). The overall 12-month cumulative risk of recurrent P. vivax malaria was 5.1% (95% CI: 1.3-18.9) and the incidence rate of recurrence was 46.8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 11.7-187.1). The risk of P. vivax recurrence was lower in G6PD deficient patients treated with PQ8W compared to G6PD normal patients in all treatment arms of the randomised controlled trial. Two of the 26 confirmed hemizygous males had a significant fall in haemoglobin (>5g/dl) after the first dose but were able to complete their 8 week regimen.ConclusionsPQ8W was highly effective in preventing P. vivax recurrences. Whilst PQ8W was well tolerated in most patients across a range of different G6PD variants, significant falls in haemoglobin may occur after the first dose and require clinical monitoring.Trial registrationThis trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01814683).

Project description:Primaquine and tafenoquine are the only licensed drugs with activity against Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites but cause haemolysis in patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. Malaria also causes haemolysis, leading to the replacement of older erythrocytes with low G6PD activity by reticulocytes and young erythrocytes with higher activity. Aim of this study was to assess the impact of acute malaria on G6PD activity. Selected patients with uncomplicated malaria were recruited in Bangladesh (n = 87), Indonesia (n = 75), and Ethiopia (n = 173); G6PD activity was measured at the initial presentation with malaria and a median of 176 days later (range 140 to 998) in the absence of malaria. Among selected participants (deficient participants preferentially enrolled in Bangladesh but not at other sites) G6PD activity fell between malaria and follow up by 79.1% (95%CI: 40.4 to 117.8) in 6 participants classified as deficient (<30% activity), 43.7% (95%CI: 34.2 to 53.1) in 39 individuals with intermediate activity (30% to <70%), and by 4.5% (95%CI: 1.4 to 7.6) in 290 G6PD normal (≥70%) participants. In Bangladesh and Indonesia G6PD activity was significantly higher during acute malaria than when the same individuals were retested during follow up (40.9% (95%CI: 33.4-48.1) and 7.4% (95%CI: 0.2 to 14.6) respectively), whereas in Ethiopia G6PD activity was 3.6% (95%CI: -1.0 to -6.1) lower during acute malaria. The change in G6PD activity was apparent in patients presenting with either P. vivax or P. falciparum infection. Overall, 66.7% (4/6) severely deficient participants and 87.2% (34/39) with intermediate deficiency had normal activities when presenting with malaria. These findings suggest that G6PD activity rises significantly and at clinically relevant levels during acute malaria. Prospective case-control studies are warranted to confirm the degree to which the predicted population attributable risks of drug induced haemolysis is lower than would be predicted from cross sectional surveys.

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Collider bias and the apparent protective effect of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency on cerebral malaria.

Publications

Collider bias and the apparent protective effect of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency on cerebral malaria.

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