Dataset Information

Inferring species richness using multispecies occupancy modeling: Estimation performance and interpretation.

ABSTRACT: Multispecies occupancy models can estimate species richness from spatially replicated multispecies detection/non-detection survey data, while accounting for imperfect detection. A model extension using data augmentation allows inferring the total number of species in the community, including those completely missed by sampling (i.e., not detected in any survey, at any site). Here we investigate the robustness of these estimates. We review key model assumptions and test performance via simulations, under a range of scenarios of species characteristics and sampling regimes, exploring sensitivity to the Bayesian priors used for model fitting. We run tests when assumptions are perfectly met and when violated. We apply the model to a real dataset and contrast estimates obtained with and without predictors, and for different subsets of data. We find that, even with model assumptions perfectly met, estimation of the total number of species can be poor in scenarios where many species are missed (>15%-20%) and that commonly used priors can accentuate overestimation. Our tests show that estimation can often be robust to violations of assumptions about the statistical distributions describing variation of occupancy and detectability among species, but lower-tail deviations can result in large biases. We obtain substantially different estimates from alternative analyses of our real dataset, with results suggesting that missing relevant predictors in the model can result in richness underestimation. In summary, estimates of total richness are sensitive to model structure and often uncertain. Appropriate selection of priors, testing of assumptions, and model refinement are all important to enhance estimator performance. Yet, these do not guarantee accurate estimation, particularly when many species remain undetected. While statistical models can provide useful insights, expectations about accuracy in this challenging prediction task should be realistic. Where knowledge about species numbers is considered truly critical for management or policy, survey effort should ideally be such that the chances of missing species altogether are low.

SUBMITTER: Guillera-Arroita G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6362448 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Inferring species richness using multispecies occupancy modeling: Estimation performance and interpretation.

Guillera-Arroita Gurutzeta G Kéry Marc M Lahoz-Monfort José J JJ

Ecology and evolution 20190101 2

Multispecies occupancy models can estimate species richness from spatially replicated multispecies detection/non-detection survey data, while accounting for imperfect detection. A model extension using data augmentation allows inferring the <i>total</i> number of species in the community, including those completely missed by sampling (i.e.<i>,</i> not detected in any survey, at any site). Here we investigate the robustness of these estimates. We review key model assumptions and test performance ...[more]

PMID: 30766668

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Project description:BackgroundThe quantification of species-richness and species-turnover is essential to effective monitoring of ecosystems. Wetland ecosystems are particularly in need of such monitoring due to their sensitivity to rainfall, water management and other external factors that affect hydrology, soil, and species patterns. A key challenge for environmental scientists is determining the linkage between natural and human stressors, and the effect of that linkage at the species level in space and time. We propose pixel intensity based Shannon entropy for estimating species-richness, and introduce a method based on statistical wavelet multiresolution texture analysis to quantitatively assess interseasonal and interannual species turnover.Methodology/principal findingsWe model satellite images of regions of interest as textures. We define a texture in an image as a spatial domain where the variations in pixel intensity across the image are both stochastic and multiscale. To compare two textures quantitatively, we first obtain a multiresolution wavelet decomposition of each. Either an appropriate probability density function (pdf) model for the coefficients at each subband is selected, and its parameters estimated, or, a non-parametric approach using histograms is adopted. We choose the former, where the wavelet coefficients of the multiresolution decomposition at each subband are modeled as samples from the generalized Gaussian pdf. We then obtain the joint pdf for the coefficients for all subbands, assuming independence across subbands; an approximation that simplifies the computational burden significantly without sacrificing the ability to statistically distinguish textures. We measure the difference between two textures' representative pdf's via the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL). Species turnover, or [Formula: see text] diversity, is estimated using both this KL divergence and the difference in Shannon entropy. Additionally, we predict species richness, or [Formula: see text] diversity, based on the Shannon entropy of pixel intensity.To test our approach, we specifically use the green band of Landsat images for a water conservation area in the Florida Everglades. We validate our predictions against data of species occurrences for a twenty-eight years long period for both wet and dry seasons. Our method correctly predicts 73% of species richness. For species turnover, the newly proposed KL divergence prediction performance is near 100% accurate. This represents a significant improvement over the more conventional Shannon entropy difference, which provides 85% accuracy. Furthermore, we find that changes in soil and water patterns, as measured by fluctuations of the Shannon entropy for the red and blue bands respectively, are positively correlated with changes in vegetation. The fluctuations are smaller in the wet season when compared to the dry season.Conclusions/significanceTexture-based statistical multiresolution image analysis is a promising method for quantifying interseasonal differences and, consequently, the degree to which vegetation, soil, and water patterns vary. The proposed automated method for quantifying species richness and turnover can also provide analysis at higher spatial and temporal resolution than is currently obtainable from expensive monitoring campaigns, thus enabling more prompt, more cost effective inference and decision making support regarding anomalous variations in biodiversity. Additionally, a matrix-based visualization of the statistical multiresolution analysis is presented to facilitate both insight and quick recognition of anomalous data.

Project description:Statistical models supporting inferences about species occurrence patterns in relation to environmental gradients are fundamental to ecology and conservation biology. A common implicit assumption is that the sampling design is ignorable and does not need to be formally accounted for in analyses. The analyst assumes data are representative of the desired population and statistical modeling proceeds. However, if data sets from probability and non-probability surveys are combined or unequal selection probabilities are used, the design may be non-ignorable. We outline the use of pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for site-occupancy models to account for such non-ignorable survey designs. This estimation method accounts for the survey design by properly weighting the pseudo-likelihood equation. In our empirical example, legacy and newer randomly selected locations were surveyed for bats to bridge a historic statewide effort with an ongoing nationwide program. We provide a worked example using bat acoustic detection/non-detection data and show how analysts can diagnose whether their design is ignorable. Using simulations we assessed whether our approach is viable for modeling data sets composed of sites contributed outside of a probability design. Pseudo-maximum likelihood estimates differed from the usual maximum likelihood occupancy estimates for some bat species. Using simulations we show the maximum likelihood estimator of species-environment relationships with non-ignorable sampling designs was biased, whereas the pseudo-likelihood estimator was design unbiased. However, in our simulation study the designs composed of a large proportion of legacy or non-probability sites resulted in estimation issues for standard errors. These issues were likely a result of highly variable weights confounded by small sample sizes (5% or 10% sampling intensity and four revisits). Aggregating data sets from multiple sources logically supports larger sample sizes and potentially increases spatial extents for statistical inferences. Our results suggest that ignoring the mechanism for how locations were selected for data collection (e.g., the sampling design) could result in erroneous model-based conclusions. Therefore, in order to ensure robust and defensible recommendations for evidence-based conservation decision-making, the survey design information in addition to the data themselves must be available for analysts. Details for constructing the weights used in estimation and code for implementation are provided.

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Dataset Information

Inferring species richness using multispecies occupancy modeling: Estimation performance and interpretation.

Publications

Inferring species richness using multispecies occupancy modeling: Estimation performance and interpretation.

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