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Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway.

ABSTRACT: Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020-2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990-2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0-85+?), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) for all U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using ARIMA models as inputs into Leslie matrix population projection models and control the projections to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. I validate the methods using ex-post facto evaluations using data from 1969-2000 to project 2000-2015. My results are reasonably accurate for this period. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States.

SUBMITTER: Hauer ME

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6362894 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway.

Hauer Mathew E ME

Scientific data 20190205

Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020-2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990-2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0-85+ ), two sex gro ...[more]

PMID: 30720801

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Project description:Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen that disproportionally affects pregnant females, older adults, and immunocompromised individuals. Using U.S. Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) surveillance data, we examined listeriosis incidence rates and rate ratios (RRs) by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and pregnancy status across three periods from 2008 to 2016, as recent incidence trends in U.S. subgroups had not been evaluated. The invasive listeriosis annual incidence rate per 100,000 for 2008-2016 was 0.28 cases among the general population (excluding pregnant females), and 3.73 cases among pregnant females. For adults ≥70 years, the annual incidence rate per 100,000 was 1.33 cases. No significant change in estimated listeriosis incidence was found over the 2008-2016 period, except for a small, but significantly lower pregnancy-associated rate in 2011-2013 when compared with 2008-2010. Among the nonpregnancy-associated cases, RRs increased with age from 0.43 (95% confidence interval: 0.25-0.73) for 0- to 14-year olds to 44.9 (33.5-60.0) for ≥85-year olds, compared with 15- to 44-year olds. Males had an incidence of 1.28 (1.12-1.45) times that of females. Compared with non-Hispanic whites, the incidence was 1.57 (1.18-1.20) times higher among non-Hispanic Asians, 1.49 (1.22-1.83) among non-Hispanic blacks, and 1.73 (1.15-2.62) among Hispanics. Among females of childbearing age, non-Hispanic Asian females had 2.72 (1.51-4.89) and Hispanic females 3.13 (2.12-4.89) times higher incidence than non-Hispanic whites. We observed a higher percentage of deaths among older patient groups compared with 15- to 44-year olds. This study is the first characterizing higher RRs for listeriosis in the United States among non-Hispanic blacks and Asians compared with non-Hispanic whites. This information for public health risk managers may spur further research to understand if differences in listeriosis rates relate to differences in consumption patterns of foods with higher contamination levels, food handling practices, comorbidities, immunodeficiencies, health care access, or other factors.

Project description:Background:Higher socioeconomic status (SES) indicators such as educational attainment and income reduce the risk of chronic lung diseases (CLDs) such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), emphysema, chronic bronchitis, and asthma. Marginalization-related Diminished Returns (MDRs) refer to smaller health benefits of high SES for marginalized populations such as racial and ethnic minorities compared to the socially privileged groups such as non-Hispanic Whites. It is still unknown, however, if MDRs also apply to the effects of education and income on CLDs. Purpose:Using a nationally representative sample, the current study explored racial and ethnic variation in the associations between educational attainment and income and CLDs among American adults. Methods:In this study, we analyzed data (n = 25,659) from a nationally representative survey of American adults in 2013 and 2014. Wave one of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH)-Adult study was used. The independent variables were educational attainment (less than high school = 1, high school graduate = 2, and college graduate =3) and income (living out of poverty =1, living in poverty = 0). The dependent variable was any CLDs (i.e., COPD, emphysema, chronic bronchitis, and asthma). Age, gender, employment, and region were the covariates. Race and ethnicity were the moderators. Logistic regressions were fitted to analyze the data. Results:Individuals with higher educational attainment and those with higher income (who lived out of poverty) had lower odds of CLDs. Race and ethnicity showed statistically significant interactions with educational attainment and income, suggesting that the protective effects of high education and income on reducing odds of CLDs were smaller for Blacks and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic Whites. Conclusions:Education and income better reduce the risk of CLDs among Whites than Hispanics and Blacks. That means we should expect disproportionately higher than expected risk of CLDs in Hispanics and Blacks with high SES. Future research should test if high levels of environmental risk factors contribute to the high risk of CLDs in high income and highly educated Black and Hispanic Americans. Policy makers should not reduce health inequalities to SES gaps because disparities sustain across SES levels, with high SES Blacks and Hispanics remaining at risk of health problems.

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Dataset Information

Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway.

Publications

Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway.

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