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Holocene El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability reflected in subtropical Australian precipitation.

ABSTRACT: The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate.

SUBMITTER: Barr C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6367503 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) exhibits significant variability, affecting the food and water security of the densely populated Indian subcontinent. The two dominant spatial modes of ISMR variability are associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the strength of the semi-permanent monsoon trough along with related variability in monsoon depressions, respectively. Although the robust teleconnection between ENSO and ISMR has been well established for several decades, the major drivers leading to the time-varying relationship between ENSO and ISMR patterns across different regions of the country are not well understood. Our analysis shows a consistent increase from a moderate to substantially strong teleconnection strength between ENSO and ISMR from 1901 to 1940. This strengthened relationship remained stable and strong between 1941 and 1980. However, in the recent period from 1981 to 2018 the teleconnection decreased consistently again to a moderate strength. We find that the ENSO-ISMR relationship exhibits distinct regional variability with time-varying relationship over the north, central, and south India. Specifically, the teleconnection displays an increasing relationship for north India, a decreasing relationship for central India and a consistent relationship for south India. Warm SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific Ocean correspond to an overall decrease in the ISMR, while warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean corresponds to a decrease in rainfall over the north and increase over the south of India. The central Indian region experienced the most substantial variation in the ENSO-ISMR relationship. This variation corresponds to the variability of the monsoon trough and depressions, strongly influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, which regulate the relative dominance of the two spatial modes of ISMR. By applying the PCA-Biplot technique, our study highlights the significant impacts of various climate drivers on the two dominant spatial modes of ISMR which account for the evolving nature of the ENSO-ISMR relationship.

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Holocene El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability reflected in subtropical Australian precipitation.

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