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Clinical Indicators of Fatal Dengue in Two Endemic Areas of Colombia: A Hospital-Based Case-Control Study.

ABSTRACT: According to the World Health Organization, 98% of fatal dengue cases can be prevented; however, endemic countries such as Colombia have recorded higher case fatality rates during recent epidemics. We aimed to identify the predictors of mortality that allow risk stratification and timely intervention in patients with dengue. We conducted a hospital-based, case-control (1:2) study in two endemic areas of Colombia (2009-2015). Fatal cases were defined as having either 1) positive serological test (IgM or NS1), 2) positive virological test (RT-PCR or viral isolation), or 3) autopsy findings compatible with death from dengue. Controls (matched by state and year) were hospitalized nonfatal patients and had a positive serological or virological dengue test. Exposure data were extracted from medical records by trained staff. We used conditional logistic regression (adjusting for age, gender, disease's duration, and health-care provider) in the context of multiple imputation to estimate exposure to case-control associations. We evaluated 110 cases and 217 controls (mean age: 35.0 versus 18.9; disease's duration pre-admission: 4.9 versus 5.0 days). In multivariable analysis, retro-ocular pain (odds ratios [OR] = 0.23), nausea (OR = 0.29), and diarrhea (OR = 0.19) were less prevalent among fatal than nonfatal cases, whereas increased age (OR = 2.46 per 10 years), respiratory distress (OR = 16.3), impaired consciousness (OR = 15.9), jaundice (OR = 32.2), and increased heart rate (OR = 2.01 per 10 beats per minute) increased the likelihood of death (AUC: 0.97, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 0.99). These results provide evidence that features of severe dengue are associated with higher mortality, which strengthens the recommendations related to triaging patients in dengue-endemic areas.

SUBMITTER: Rojas EM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6367622 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:For populations with a high risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in Guangdong province in southern China, mass screening is the first choice to prevent death from NPC. To improve the performance of NPC screening, we used a combination based on the IgA antibody against the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) capsid antigen (VCA-IgA) and the IgA antibody against Epstein-Barr virus nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA1-IgA) to NPC screening by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A multiplication model was applied to measure the level of the combination. We evaluated the NPC screening effect of the markers.A case-control study was performed to assess the NPC screening effect of the markers. A total of 10,894 serum specimens were collected, including 554 samples from NPC patients and 10,340 samples from healthy controls. In the training stage, 640 subjects were randomly selected, including 320 NPC cases and 320 healthy controls. In the verification stage, 10,254 subjects were used to verify the NPC screening effect of the combination. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed. In the verification stage, the combination achieved an sensitivity of 91.45%, a specificity of 93.45%, and an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.978 (95% CI [0.968-0.987]). Compared with VCA-IgA and EBNA1-IgA individually, the combination had an improved screening performance. A probability (PROB) calculated by logistic regression model based on VCA-IgA and EBNA1-IgA was applied to NPC screening by ELISA in China. The AUC of the combination was a little bit larger than the PROB. There was a slight increase (3.13%) in the sensitivity of the combination compared to the sensitivity of the PROB, while the specificity was lower for the combination (92.50%) than for the PROB (95.94%). We successfully applied a combination of two ELISA tests based on VCA-IgA and EBNA1-IgA for NPC screening by using a multiplication model. The results suggested that the combination was effective and can be an option for NPC screening.

Project description:BackgroundDengue is a widely spread vector-borne disease. Dengue cases in the Americas have increased over the last few decades, affecting various urban spaces throughout these continents, including the tourism-oriented city of Girardot, Colombia. Interactions among mosquitoes, pathogens and humans have recently been examined using different temporal and spatial scales in attempts to determine the roles that social and ecological systems play in dengue transmission. The current work characterizes the spatial and temporal behaviours of dengue in Girardot and discusses the potential territorial dynamics related to the distribution of this disease.MethodsBased on officially reported dengue cases (2012-2015) corresponding to epidemic (2013) and inter-epidemic years (2012, 2014, 2015), space (Getis-Ord index) and space-time (Kulldorff's scan statistics) analyses were performed.ResultsGeocoded dengue cases (n = 2027) were slightly overrepresented by men (52.1%). As expected, the cases were concentrated in the 0- to 15-year-old age group according to the actual trends of Colombia. The incidence rates of dengue during the rainy and dry seasons as well as those for individual years (2012, 2013 and 2014) were significant using the global Getis-Ord index. Local clusters shifted across seasons and years; nevertheless, the incidence rates clustered towards the southwest region of the city under different residential conditions. Space-time clusters shifted from the northeast to the southwest of the city (2012-2014). These clusters represented only 4.25% of the total cases over the same period (n = 1623). A general trend was observed, in which dengue cases increased during the dry seasons, especially between December and February.ConclusionsDespite study limitations related to official dengue records and available fine-scale demographic information, the spatial analysis results were promising from a geography of health perspective. Dengue did not show linear association with poverty or with vulnerable peripheral spaces in intra-urban settings, supporting the idea that the pathogenic complex of dengue is driven by different factors. A coordinated collaboration of epidemiological, public health and social science expertise is needed to assess the effect of "place" from a relational perspective in which geography has an important role to play.

Project description:BackgroundDengue is a major public health problem worldwide. Assessment of adaptive immunity is important to understanding immunopathology and to define correlates of protection against dengue virus (DENV). To enable global assessment of CD4+ T cell responses, we mapped HLA-DRB1-restricted DENV-specific CD4+ T cell epitopes in individuals previously exposed to DENV in the general population of the dengue-endemic region of Managua, Nicaragua.MethodsHLA class II epitopes in the population of Managua were identified by an in vitro IFNγ ELISPOT assay. CD4+ T cells purified by magnetic bead negative selection were stimulated with HLA-matched epitope pools in the presence of autologous antigen-presenting cells, followed by pool deconvolution to identify specific epitopes. The epitopes identified in this study were combined with those previously identified in the DENV endemic region of Sri Lanka, to generate a "megapool" (MP) consisting of 180 peptides specifically designed to achieve balanced HLA and DENV serotype coverage. The DENV CD4MP180 was validated by intracellular cytokine staining assays.ResultsWe detected responses directed against a total of 431 epitopes, representing all 4 DENV serotypes, restricted by 15 different HLA-DRB1 alleles. The responses were associated with a similar pattern of protein immunodominance, overall higher magnitude of responses, as compared to what was observed previously in the Sri Lanka region. Based on these epitope mapping studies, we designed a DENV CD4 MP180 with higher and more consistent coverage, which allowed the detection of CD4+ T cell DENV responses ex vivo in various cohorts of DENV exposed donors worldwide, including donors from Nicaragua, Brazil, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and U.S. domestic flavivirus-naïve subjects immunized with Tetravalent Dengue Live-Attenuated Vaccine (TV005). This broad reactivity reflects that the 21 HLA-DRB1 alleles analyzed in this and previous studies account for more than 80% of alleles present with a phenotypic frequency ≥5% worldwide, corresponding to 92% phenotypic coverage of the general population (i.e., 92% of individuals express at least one of these alleles).ConclusionThe DENV CD4 MP180 can be utilized to measure ex vivo responses to DENV irrespective of geographical location.

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Clinical Indicators of Fatal Dengue in Two Endemic Areas of Colombia: A Hospital-Based Case-Control Study.

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