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Traceability and dynamical resistance of precursor of extreme events.

ABSTRACT: Extreme events occur in a variety of natural, technical, and societal systems and often have catastrophic consequences. Their low-probability, high-impact nature has recently triggered research into improving our understanding of generating mechanisms, providing early warnings as well as developing control strategies. For the latter to be effective, knowledge about dynamical resistance of a system prior to an extreme event is of utmost importance. Here we introduce a novel time-series-based and non-perturbative approach to efficiently monitor dynamical resistance and apply it to high-resolution observations of brain activities from 43 subjects with uncontrollable epileptic seizures. We gain surprising insights into pre-seizure dynamical resistance of brains that also provide important clues for success or failure of measures for seizure prevention. The novel resistance monitoring perspective advances our understanding of precursor dynamics in complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in refining control strategies.

SUBMITTER: Rings T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6370838 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Traceability and dynamical resistance of precursor of extreme events.

Rings Thorsten T Mazarei Mahmood M Akhshi Amin A Geier Christian C Tabar M Reza Rahimi MRR Lehnertz Klaus K

Scientific reports 20190211 1

Extreme events occur in a variety of natural, technical, and societal systems and often have catastrophic consequences. Their low-probability, high-impact nature has recently triggered research into improving our understanding of generating mechanisms, providing early warnings as well as developing control strategies. For the latter to be effective, knowledge about dynamical resistance of a system prior to an extreme event is of utmost importance. Here we introduce a novel time-series-based and ...[more]

PMID: 30741977

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Project description:The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in regions associated with extreme events, where data is sparse.

Project description:Extreme weather events (EWEs) are expected to increase in stochasticity, frequency, and intensity due to climate change. Documented effects of EWEs, such as droughts, hurricanes, and temperature extremes, range from shifting community stable states to species extirpations. To date, little attention has been paid to how populations resist and/or recover from EWEs through compensatory (behavioral, demographic, or physiological) mechanisms; limiting the capacity to predict species responses to future changes in EWEs. Here, we systematically reviewed the global variation in species' demographic responses, resistance to, and recovery from EWEs across weather types, species, and biogeographic regions. Through a literature review and meta-analysis, we tested the prediction that population abundance and probability of persistence will decrease in populations after an EWE and how compensation affects that probability. Across 524 species population responses to EWEs reviewed (27 articles), we noted large variation in responses, such that, on average, the effect of EWEs on population demographics was not negative as predicted. The majority of species populations (80.4%) demonstrated compensatory mechanisms during events to reduce their deleterious effects. However, for populations that were negatively impacted, the demographic consequences were severe. Nearly 20% of the populations monitored experienced declines of over 50% after an EWE, and 6.8% of populations were extirpated. Population declines were reflected in a reduction in survival. Further, resilience was not common, as 80.0% of populations that declined did not recover to before EWE levels while monitored. However, average monitoring time was only two years with over a quarter of studies tracking recovery for less than the study species generation time. We conclude that EWEs have positive and negative impacts on species demography, and this varies by taxa. Species population recovery over short-time intervals is rare, but long-term studies are required to accurately assess species resilience to current and future events.

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Traceability and dynamical resistance of precursor of extreme events.

Publications

Traceability and dynamical resistance of precursor of extreme events.

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