Dataset Information

Mortality and Exacerbations by Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease Groups ABCD: 2011 Versus 2017 in the COPDGene® Cohort.

ABSTRACT: Background: The Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) ABCD groupings were recently modified. The GOLD 2011 guidelines defined increased risk as forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) < 50% predicted or ? 2 outpatient or ? 1 hospitalized exacerbation in the prior year, whereas the GOLD 2017 guidelines use only exacerbation history. We compared mortality and exacerbation rates in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study cohort (COPDGene®) by 2011 (exacerbation history/FEV1 and dyspnea) versus 2017 (exacerbations and dyspnea) classifications. Methods: Using data from COPDGene®, we tested associations of ABCD groups with all-cause mortality (Cox models, adjusted for age, sex, race and comorbidities) and longitudinal exacerbations (zero-inflated Poisson models). Results: In 4469 individuals (mean age 63.1 years, 44% female), individual distributions in 2011 versus 2017 systems were: A, 32.0% versus 37.0%; B, 17.6% versus 36.3%; C, 9.4% versus 4.4%; D, 41.0% versus 22.3%; (observed agreement 76% [expected 27.8%], Kappa 0.67, p<0.001). Individuals in group D-2011 had 1.1 ± 1.6 exacerbations/year (mean ± standard deviation [SD]) versus 1.4 ± 1.8 for D-2017 (median follow-up 3.7 years). Using group A as reference, for both systems, mortality (median follow-up 6.8 years) was highest in group D (D-2011, [hazard ratio] HR 5.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.2, 6.4]; D-2017, HR 5.5 [4.5, 6.8]), lowest for group C (HR 1.9 [1.4, 2.6] versus HR 1.9 [1.3, 2.8]) and intermediate for group B (HR 2.6 [2.0, 3.4] versus HR 3.4 [2.8, 4.1]). GOLD 2011 had better mortality discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.68) than GOLD 2017 (AUC 0.66, p<0.001 for comparison) but similar exacerbation rate prediction. Conclusions: Relative to the GOLD 2011 consensus statement, discriminate predictive power of the 2017 ABCD classification is similar for exacerbations but lower for survival.

SUBMITTER: Criner RN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6373581 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mortality and Exacerbations by Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease Groups ABCD: 2011 Versus 2017 in the COPDGene® Cohort.

Criner Rachel N RN Labaki Wassim W WW Regan Elizabeth A EA Bon Jessica M JM Soler Xavier X Bhatt Surya P SP Murray Susan S Hokanson John E JE Silverman Edwin K EK Crapo James D JD Curtis Jeffrey L JL Martinez Fernando J FJ Make Barry J BJ Han MeiLan K MK Martinez Carlos H CH

Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.) 20190110 1

Background: The Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) ABCD groupings were recently modified. The GOLD 2011 guidelines defined increased risk as forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) < 50% predicted or ≥ 2 outpatient or ≥ 1 hospitalized exacerbation in the prior year, whereas the GOLD 2017 guidelines use only exacerbation history. We compared mortality and exacerbation rates in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study cohort (COPDGene®) by ...[more]

PMID: 30775425

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Project description:Rationale:We classified individuals into pulmonary disease subtypes based on 2 underlying pathophysiologic disease axes (airway-predominant and emphysema-predominant) and their increased mortality risk. Our next objective was to determine whether some subcomponents of these subtypes are additionally associated with unique patterns of Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) spirometry stage progression. Methods:After accounting for intra-individual measurement variability in spirometry measures between baseline (Phase 1) and the 5-year follow up (Phase 2) of the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene®) study, 4615 individuals had complete data that would characterize patterns of disease progression over 5 years (2033 non-Hispanic whites; 827 African Americans; 48% female). Individuals could express increased risk for mortality on one or both of the primary subtype axes (airway-predominant or emphysema-predominant) and thus they were further classified into 6 groups: high-risk airway-predominant disease only (APD-only), moderate-risk airway-predominant disease only (MR-APD-only), high-risk emphysema-predominant disease only (EPD-only), combined high-risk airway- and emphysema-predominant disease (combined APD-EPD), combined moderate-risk airway- and emphysema-predominant disease (combined MR-APD-EPD), and no high-risk pulmonary subtype. Outcomes were dichotomized for GOLD spirometry stage progression from Phase 1 to Phase 2. Logistic regression of the progression outcomes on the pulmonary subtypes were adjusted for age, sex, race, and change in smoking status. Results:The MR-APD-only group was associated with conversion from GOLD 0 to preserved ratio-impaired spirometry (PRISm) status (odds ratio [OR] 11.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.7-22.1) and GOLD 0 to GOLD 2-4 (OR 6.0, 95% CI 2.0-18.0). The EPD-only group was associated with conversion from GOLD 0 to GOLD 1 (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.6), and GOLD 1 to GOLD 2-4 (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.0-6.9). Conversion between PRISm and GOLD 2-4 (31%-38%) occurred in both the APD-only and the MR-APD-only groups. Conclusion:Differential conversion occurs from GOLD 0 to PRISm and GOLD 0 to GOLD 1 based on groups expressing airway-predominant disease or emphysema-predominant disease independently or in combination. Airway-predominant and emphysema-predominant subtypes are highly important in determining patterns of early disease progression.

Project description:Background:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Present-day diagnostic criteria are largely based solely on spirometric criteria. Accumulating evidence has identified a substantial number of individuals without spirometric evidence of COPD who suffer from respiratory symptoms and/or increased morbidity and mortality. There is a clear need for an expanded definition of COPD that is linked to physiologic, structural (computed tomography [CT]) and clinical evidence of disease. Using data from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology study (COPDGene®), we hypothesized that an integrated approach that includes environmental exposure, clinical symptoms, chest CT imaging and spirometry better defines disease and captures the likelihood of progression of respiratory obstruction and mortality. Methods:Four key disease characteristics - environmental exposure (cigarette smoking), clinical symptoms (dyspnea and/or chronic bronchitis), chest CT imaging abnormalities (emphysema, gas trapping and/or airway wall thickening), and abnormal spirometry - were evaluated in a group of 8784 current and former smokers who were participants in COPDGene® Phase 1. Using these 4 disease characteristics, 8 categories of participants were identified and evaluated for odds of spirometric disease progression (FEV1 > 350 ml loss over 5 years), and the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was examined. Results:Using smokers without symptoms, CT imaging abnormalities or airflow obstruction as the reference population, individuals were classified as Possible COPD, Probable COPD and Definite COPD. Current Global initiative for obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria would diagnose 4062 (46%) of the 8784 study participants with COPD. The proposed COPDGene® 2019 diagnostic criteria would add an additional 3144 participants. Under the new criteria, 82% of the 8784 study participants would be diagnosed with Possible, Probable or Definite COPD. These COPD groups showed increased risk of disease progression and mortality. Mortality increased in patients as the number of their COPD characteristics increased, with a maximum hazard ratio for all cause-mortality of 5.18 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.15-6.48) in those with all 4 disease characteristics. Conclusions:A substantial portion of smokers with respiratory symptoms and imaging abnormalities do not manifest spirometric obstruction as defined by population normals. These individuals are at significant risk of death and spirometric disease progression. We propose to redefine the diagnosis of COPD through an integrated approach using environmental exposure, clinical symptoms, CT imaging and spirometric criteria. These expanded criteria offer the potential to stimulate both current and future interventions that could slow or halt disease progression in patients before disability or irreversible lung structural changes develop.

Project description:The 2011 GOLD (Global Strategy for the Diagnosis, Management, and Prevention of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease [COPD]) consensus report uses symptoms, exacerbation history, and forced expiratory volume (FEV1)% to categorise patients according to disease severity and guide treatment. We aimed to assess both the influence of symptom instrument choice on patient category assignment and prospective exacerbation risk by category.Patients were recruited from 21 centres in the USA, as part of the COPDGene study. Eligible patients were aged 45-80 years, had smoked for 10 pack-years or more, and had an FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) <0·7. Categories were defined with the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnoea scale (score 0-1 vs ?2) and the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ; ?25 vs <25 as a surrogate for the COPD Assessment Test [CAT] ?10 vs <10) in addition to COPD exacerbations in the previous year (<2 vs ? 2), and lung function (FEV1% predicted ?50 vs <50). Statistical comparisons were done with k-sample permutation tests. This study cohort is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00608764.4484 patients with COPD were included in this analysis. Category assignment using the mMRC scale versus SGRQ were similar but not identical. On the basis of the mMRC scale, 1507 (33·6%) patients were assigned to category A, 919 (20·5%) to category B, 355 (7·9%) to category C, and 1703 (38·0%) to category D; on the basis of the SGRQ, 1317 (29·4%) patients were assigned to category A, 1109 (24·7%) to category B, 221 (4·9%) to category C, and 1837 (41·0%) to category D (? coefficient for agreement, 0·77). Significant heterogeneity in prospective exacerbation rates (exacerbations/person-years) were seen, especially in the D subcategories, depending on the risk factor that determined category assignment (lung function only [0·89, 95% CI 0·78-1·00]), previous exacerbation history only [1·34, 1·0-1·6], or both [1·86, 1·6-2·1; p<0·0001]).The GOLD classification emphasises the importance of symptoms and exacerbation risk when assessing COPD severity. The choice of symptom measure influences category assignment. The relative number of patients with low symptoms and high risk for exacerbations (category C) is low. Differences in exacerbation rates for patients in the highest risk category D were seen depending on whether risk was based on lung function, exacerbation history, or both.National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, and the COPD Foundation through contributions from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, and Sepracor.

Project description:BackgroundRisk factor identification is a proven strategy in advancing treatments and preventive therapy for many chronic conditions. Quantifying the impact of those risk factors on health outcomes can consolidate and focus efforts on individuals with specific high-risk profiles. Using multiple risk factors and longitudinal outcomes in 2 independent cohorts, we developed and validated a risk score model to predict mortality in current and former cigarette smokers.MethodsWe obtained extensive data on current and former smokers from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene®) study at enrollment. Based on physician input and model goodness-of-fit measures, a subset of variables was selected to fit final Weibull survival models separately for men and women. Coefficients and predictors were translated into a point system, allowing for easy computation of mortality risk scores and probabilities. We then used the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort for external validation of our model.ResultsOf 9867 COPDGene participants with standard baseline data, 17.6% died over 10 years of follow-up, and 9074 of these participants had the full set of baseline predictors (standard plus 6-minute walk distance and computed tomography variables) available for full model fits. The average age of participants in the cohort was 60 for both men and women, and the average predicted 10-year mortality risk was 18% for women and 25% for men. Model time-integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics demonstrated good predictive model accuracy (0.797 average), validated in the external cohort (0.756 average). Risk of mortality was impacted most by 6-minute walk distance, forced expiratory volume in 1 second and age, for both men and women.ConclusionsCurrent and former smokers exhibited a wide range of mortality risk over a 10- year period. Our models can identify higher risk individuals who can be targeted for interventions to reduce risk of mortality, for participants with or without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using current Global initiative for obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria.

Dataset Information

Mortality and Exacerbations by Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease Groups ABCD: 2011 Versus 2017 in the COPDGene® Cohort.

Publications

Mortality and Exacerbations by Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease Groups ABCD: 2011 Versus 2017 in the COPDGene® Cohort.

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