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Trend and projection of mortality rate due to non-communicable diseases in Iran: A modeling study.


ABSTRACT:

Background

Following the epidemiologic and demographic transition, non-communicable disease mortality is the leading cause of death in Iran. Projecting mortality trend can provide valuable tools for policy makers and planners. In this article, we have estimated the trend of non-communicable disease mortality during 2001-2015 and have projected it until 2030 at national and subnational levels in Iran.

Methods

The data employed was gathered from the Iranian death registration system and using the Spatio-temporal model, the trends of 4 major categories of non-communicable diseases (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, asthma and COPD, and diabetes) by 2030 were projected at the national and subnational levels.

Results

The results indicated that age standardized mortality rate for cancers, CVDs, and Asthma and COPD will continue to decrease in both sexes (cancers: from 81.8 in 2015 to 45.2 in 2030, CVDs: 307.3 to 173.0, and Asthma and COPD: from 52.1 to 46.6); however, in terms of diabetes, there is a steady trend in both sexes at national level (from 16.6 to 16.5). Age standardized mortality rates for cancers and CVDs, in males and females, were high in all provinces in 2001. The variation between the provinces is clearer in 2015, and it is expected to significantly decrease in all provinces by 2030.

Conclusion

Generally, the age standardized mortality rate from NCDs will decrease by 2030. Of course, given the experience of the past two decades in Iran, believing that the mortality rate will decrease may not be an easy notion to understand. However hard to believe, this decrease may be the result of better management of risk factors and early detection of patients due to more comprehensive care in all segments of society, as well as improved literacy and awareness across the country.

SUBMITTER: Khosravi Shadmani F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6375574 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Trend and projection of mortality rate due to non-communicable diseases in Iran: A modeling study.

Khosravi Shadmani Fatemeh F   Farzadfar Farshad F   Larijani Bagher B   Mirzaei Moghadameh M   Haghdoost Ali Akbar AA  

PloS one 20190214 2


<h4>Background</h4>Following the epidemiologic and demographic transition, non-communicable disease mortality is the leading cause of death in Iran. Projecting mortality trend can provide valuable tools for policy makers and planners. In this article, we have estimated the trend of non-communicable disease mortality during 2001-2015 and have projected it until 2030 at national and subnational levels in Iran.<h4>Methods</h4>The data employed was gathered from the Iranian death registration system  ...[more]

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