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The diversity of population responses to environmental change.

ABSTRACT: The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

SUBMITTER: Colchero F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6378614 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The diversity of population responses to environmental change.

Colchero Fernando F Jones Owen R OR Conde Dalia A DA Hodgson David D Zajitschek Felix F Schmidt Benedikt R BR Malo Aurelio F AF Alberts Susan C SC Becker Peter H PH Bouwhuis Sandra S Bronikowski Anne M AM De Vleeschouwer Kristel M KM Delahay Richard J RJ Dummermuth Stefan S Fernández-Duque Eduardo E Frisenvaenge John J Hesselsøe Martin M Larson Sam S Lemaître Jean-François JF McDonald Jennifer J Miller David A W DAW O'Donnell Colin C Packer Craig C Raboy Becky E BE Reading Chris J CJ Wapstra Erik E Weimerskirch Henri H While Geoffrey M GM Baudisch Annette A Flatt Thomas T Coulson Tim T Gaillard Jean-Michel JM

Ecology letters 20181209 2

The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental pe ...[more]

PMID: 30536594

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Project description:Direct and indirect effects of warming are increasingly modifying the carbon-rich vegetation and soils of the Arctic tundra, with important implications for the terrestrial carbon cycle. Understanding the biological and environmental influences on the processes that regulate foliar carbon cycling in tundra species is essential for predicting the future terrestrial carbon balance in this region. To determine the effect of climate change impacts on gas exchange in tundra, we quantified foliar photosynthesis (A net), respiration in the dark and light (R D and R L, determined using the Kok method), photorespiration (PR), carbon gain efficiency (CGE, the ratio of photosynthetic CO2 uptake to total CO2 exchange of photosynthesis, PR, and respiration), and leaf traits of three dominant species - Betula nana, a woody shrub; Eriophorum vaginatum, a graminoid; and Rubus chamaemorus, a forb - grown under long-term warming and fertilization treatments since 1989 at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Under warming, B. nana exhibited the highest rates of A net and strongest light inhibition of respiration, increasing CGE nearly 50% compared with leaves grown in ambient conditions, which corresponded to a 52% increase in relative abundance. Gas exchange did not shift under fertilization in B. nana despite increases in leaf N and P and near-complete dominance at the community scale, suggesting a morphological rather than physiological response. Rubus chamaemorus, exhibited minimal shifts in foliar gas exchange, and responded similarly to B. nana under treatment conditions. By contrast, E. vaginatum, did not significantly alter its gas exchange physiology under treatments and exhibited dramatic decreases in relative cover (warming: -19.7%; fertilization: -79.7%; warming with fertilization: -91.1%). Our findings suggest a foliar physiological advantage in the woody shrub B. nana that is further mediated by warming and increased soil nutrient availability, which may facilitate shrub expansion and in turn alter the terrestrial carbon cycle in future tundra environments.

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The diversity of population responses to environmental change.

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The diversity of population responses to environmental change.

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