Dataset Information

Machine learning models for predicting post-cystectomy recurrence and survival in bladder cancer patients.

ABSTRACT: Currently in patients with bladder cancer, various clinical evaluations (imaging, operative findings at transurethral resection and radical cystectomy, pathology) are collectively used to determine disease status and prognosis, and recommend neoadjuvant, definitive and adjuvant treatments. We analyze the predictive power of these measurements in forecasting two key long-term outcomes following radical cystectomy, i.e., cancer recurrence and survival. Information theory and machine learning algorithms are employed to create predictive models using a large prospective, continuously collected, temporally resolved, primary bladder cancer dataset comprised of 3503 patients (1971-2016). Patient recurrence and survival one, three, and five years after cystectomy can be predicted with greater than 70% sensitivity and specificity. Such predictions may inform patient monitoring schedules and post-cystectomy treatments. The machine learning models provide a benchmark for predicting oncologic outcomes in patients undergoing radical cystectomy and highlight opportunities for improving care using optimal preoperative and operative data collection.

SUBMITTER: Hasnain Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6382101 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Machine learning models for predicting post-cystectomy recurrence and survival in bladder cancer patients.

Hasnain Zaki Z Mason Jeremy J Gill Karanvir K Miranda Gus G Gill Inderbir S IS Kuhn Peter P Newton Paul K PK

PloS one 20190220 2

Currently in patients with bladder cancer, various clinical evaluations (imaging, operative findings at transurethral resection and radical cystectomy, pathology) are collectively used to determine disease status and prognosis, and recommend neoadjuvant, definitive and adjuvant treatments. We analyze the predictive power of these measurements in forecasting two key long-term outcomes following radical cystectomy, i.e., cancer recurrence and survival. Information theory and machine learning algor ...[more]

PMID: 30785915

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Project description:Objective The goal of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of machine learning (ML) techniques in predicting survival for chordoma patients in comparison with the standard Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model. Methods Using a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database of consecutive newly diagnosed chordoma cases between January 2000 and December 2018, we created and validated three ML survival models as well as a traditional CoxPH model in this population-based cohort study. Randomly, the dataset was divided into training and validation datasets. Tuning hyperparameters on the training dataset involved a 1000-iteration random search with fivefold cross-validation. Concordance index (C-index), Brier score, and integrated Brier score were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and area under the ROC curves (AUC) were used to assess the reliability of the models by predicting 5- and 10-year survival probabilities. Results A total of 724 chordoma patients were divided into training (n = 508) and validation (n = 216) cohorts. Cox regression identified nine significant prognostic factors (p < 0.05). ML models showed superior performance over CoxPH model, with DeepSurv having the highest C-index (0.795) and the best discrimination for 5- and 10-year survival (AUC 0.84 and 0.88). Calibration curves revealed strong correlation between DeepSurv predictions and actual survival. Risk stratification by DeepSurv model effectively discriminated high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.01). The optimized DeepSurv model was implemented into a web application for clinical use that can be found at https://hust-chengp-ml-chordoma-app-19rjyr.streamlitapp.com/. Conclusion ML algorithms based on time-to-event results are effective in chordoma prediction, with DeepSurv having the best discrimination performance and calibration. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13018-023-04105-9.

Project description:BackgroundThe variations in outcome and frequent occurrence of kidney allograft failure continue to pose important clinical and research challenges despite recent advances in kidney transplantation. The aim of this systematic review was to examine the current application of machine learning models in kidney transplantation and perform a meta-analysis of these models in the prediction of graft survival.MethodsThis review was registered with the PROSPERO database (CRD42021247469) and all peer-reviewed original articles that reported machine learning model-based prediction of graft survival were included. Quality assessment was performed by the criteria defined by Qiao and risk-of-bias assessment was performed using the PROBAST tool. The diagnostic performance of the meta-analysis was assessed by a meta-analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and a hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic plot.ResultsA total of 31 studies met the inclusion criteria for the review and 27 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Twenty-nine different machine learning models were used to predict graft survival in the included studies. Nine studies compared the predictive performance of machine learning models with traditional regression methods. Five studies had a high risk of bias and three studies had an unclear risk of bias. The area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.82 and the summary sensitivity and specificity of machine learning-based models were 0.81 (95 per cent c.i. 0.76 to 0.86) and 0.81 (95 per cent c.i. 0.74 to 0.86) respectively for the overall model. The diagnostic odds ratio for the overall model was 18.24 (95 per cent c.i. 11.00 to 30.16) and 29.27 (95 per cent c.i. 13.22 to 44.46) based on the sensitivity analyses.ConclusionPrediction models using machine learning methods may improve the prediction of outcomes after kidney transplantation by the integration of the vast amounts of non-linear data.

Project description:We aim to develop machine learning (ML) models for predicting the complexity and mortality of polytrauma patients using clinical features, including physician diagnoses and physiological data. We conducted a retrospective analysis of a cohort comprising 756 polytrauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at Pizhou People's Hospital Trauma Center, Jiangsu, China between 2020 and 2022. Clinical parameters encompassed demographics, vital signs, laboratory values, clinical scores and physician diagnoses. The two primary outcomes considered were mortality and complexity. We developed ML models to predict polytrauma mortality or complexity using four ML algorithms, including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). We assessed the models' performance and compared the optimal ML model against three existing trauma evaluation scores, including Injury Severity Score (ISS), Trauma Index (TI) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). In addition, we identified several important clinical predictors that made contributions to the prognostic models. The XGBoost-based polytrauma mortality prediction model demonstrated a predictive ability with an accuracy of 90% and an F-score of 88%, outperforming SVM, RF and ANN models. In comparison to conventional scoring systems, the XGBoost model had substantial improvements in predicting the mortality of polytrauma patients. External validation yielded strong stability and generalization with an accuracy of up to 91% and an AUC of 82%. To predict polytrauma complexity, the XGBoost model maintained its performance over other models and scoring systems with good calibration and discrimination abilities. Feature importance analysis highlighted several clinical predictors of polytrauma complexity and mortality, such as Intracranial hematoma (ICH). Leveraging ML algorithms in polytrauma care can enhance the prognostic estimation of polytrauma patients. This approach may have potential value in the management of polytrauma patients.

Dataset Information

Machine learning models for predicting post-cystectomy recurrence and survival in bladder cancer patients.

Publications

Machine learning models for predicting post-cystectomy recurrence and survival in bladder cancer patients.

Similar Datasets

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