Dataset Information

A simple score to predict severe leptospirosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The case-fatality rate of severe leptospirosis can exceed 50%. While prompt supportive care can improve survival, predicting those at risk of developing severe disease is challenging, particularly in settings with limited diagnostic support.

Methodology/principal findings

We retrospectively identified all adults with laboratory-confirmed leptospirosis in Far North Queensland, Australia, between January 1998 and May 2016. Clinical, laboratory and radiological findings at presentation were correlated with the patients' subsequent clinical course. Medical records were available in 402 patients; 50 (12%) had severe disease. The presence of oliguria (urine output ?500 mL/24 hours, odds ratio (OR): 16.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9-38.8, p<0.001), abnormal auscultatory findings on respiratory examination (OR 11.2 (95% CI: 4.7-26.5, p<0.001) and hypotension (systolic blood pressure ?100 mmHg, OR 4.3 (95% CI 1.7-10.7, p = 0.002) at presentation independently predicted severe disease. A three-point score (the SPiRO score) was devised using these three clinical variables, with one point awarded for each. A score could be calculated in 392 (98%) patients; the likelihood of severe disease rose incrementally: 8/287 (3%), 14/70 (20%), 18/26 (69%) and 9/9 (100%) for a score of 0, 1, 2 and 3 respectively (p = 0.0001). A SPiRO score <1 had a negative predictive value for severe disease of 97% (95% CI: 95-99%).

Conclusions/significance

A simple, three-point clinical score can help clinicians rapidly identify patients at risk of developing severe leptospirosis, prompting early transfer to referral centres for advanced supportive care. This inexpensive, bedside assessment requires minimal training and may have significant utility in the resource-limited settings which bear the greatest burden of disease.

SUBMITTER: Smith S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6391019 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A simple score to predict severe leptospirosis.

Smith Simon S Kennedy Brendan J BJ Dermedgoglou Alexis A Poulgrain Suzanne S SS Paavola Matthew P MP Minto Tarryn L TL Luc Michael M Liu Yu-Hsuan YH Hanson Josh J

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20190213 2

<h4>Background</h4>The case-fatality rate of severe leptospirosis can exceed 50%. While prompt supportive care can improve survival, predicting those at risk of developing severe disease is challenging, particularly in settings with limited diagnostic support.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We retrospectively identified all adults with laboratory-confirmed leptospirosis in Far North Queensland, Australia, between January 1998 and May 2016. Clinical, laboratory and radiological findings at ...[more]

PMID: 30759081

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease within the tropics. Diagnosing leptospirosis is a clinical obstacle, as clinical presentations are similar to other tropical infectious diseases. Available serological tests are often insensitive and not cost-effective. Many clinical diagnostic scorings had been developed but most were based on hospitalized patients, and wound not be suitable for use in suspected patients in setting of ambulatory care. OBJECTIVES:To develop and internal validate multivariable diagnostic prediction score of leptospirosis in patients suspicious of leptospirosis at out-patient clinics of community hospitals. MATERIALS AND METHODS:We performed a prospective, multisite diagnostic prediction research with development of a diagnostic score. The development cohort was based on patients suspicious of leptospirosis who visited five community hospitals in Si Sa Ket province, Thailand during December 2017 to November 2018. Leptospirosis confirmed cases were defined when one of the three standard confirmatory tests was positive. Multivariable logistic regression was used for score derivation. Test of AuROC equality was done to compare diagnostic performance of the newly derived score and conventional WHO score. RESULTS:A total of 262 leptospirosis suspicious patients were enrolled. Eighty-two patients (31.5%) were leptospirosis confirmed cases. Five final predictors remained within the reduced logistic model which were history of exposure to wet ground at workplace, history of contact water reservoir used by animal, urine protein and urine blood positive from dipstick test, and neutrophil count from CBC ≥80%. The OPD score diagnostic performance was AuROC 0.72 (95%CI 0.65-0.79). Test of equality revealed significant differences of AuROC between the OPD and WHO score (0.72 vs 0.62, p-value 0.014). Patients were categorized into low and high probability of having leptospirosis at score point of 3.5 with sensitivity 72.4% and specificity 61.7%. CONCLUSIONS:This study developed and internal validated the OPD score. This clinical risk score could be one of the important tools for diagnosis of leptospirosis at the outpatient clinic.

Project description:Background and objectivesOsmotic demyelination syndrome is the most concerning complication of severe hyponatremia, occurring with an overly rapid rate of serum sodium correction. There are limited clinical tools to aid in identifying individuals at high risk of overcorrection with severe hyponatremia.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe identified all patients who presented to a tertiary-care hospital emergency department in Ottawa, Canada (catchment area 1.2 million) between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2015, with serum sodium (corrected for glucose levels) <116 mmol/L. Overcorrection was determined using 14 published criteria. Latent class analysis measured the independent association of baseline factors with a consensus overcorrection status on the basis of the 14 criteria, and was summarized as a risk score, which was validated in two cohorts.ResultsA total of 623 patients presented with severe hyponatremia (mean initial value 112 mmol/L; SD 3.2). The prevalence of no, unlikely, possible, and definite overcorrection was 72%, 4%, 10%, and 14%, respectively. Overcorrection was independently associated with decreased level of consciousness (2 points), vomiting (2 points), severe hypokalemia (1 point), hypotonic urine (4 points), volume overload (-5 points), chest tumor (-5 points), patient age (-1 point per decade, over 50 years), and initial sodium level (<110 mmol/L: 4 points; 110-111 mmol/L: 2 points; 112-113 mmol/L: 1 point). These points were summed to create the Severe Hyponatremic Overcorrection Risk (SHOR) score, which was significantly associated with overcorrection status (Spearman correlation 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 0.49) and was discriminating (average dichotomized c-statistic 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.81). The internal (n=119) and external (n=95) validation cohorts had significantly greater use of desmopressin, which was significantly associated with the SHOR score. The SHOR score was significantly associated with overcorrection status in the internal (P<0.001) but not external (P=0.39) validation cohort.ConclusionsIn patients presenting with severe hyponatremia, overcorrection was common and predictable using baseline information. Further external validation of the SHOR is required before generalized use.

Dataset Information

A simple score to predict severe leptospirosis.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

A simple score to predict severe leptospirosis.

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