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An Investigation of Selection Bias in Estimating Racial Disparity in Stroke Risk Factors.

ABSTRACT: Selection due to survival or attrition might bias estimates of racial disparities in health, but few studies quantify the likely magnitude of such bias. In a large national cohort with moderate loss to follow-up, we contrasted racial differences in 2 stroke risk factors, incident hypertension and incident left ventricular hypertrophy, estimated by complete-case analyses, inverse probability of attrition weighting, and the survivor average causal effect. We used data on 12,497 black and 17,660 white participants enrolled in the United States (2003-2007) and collected incident risk factor data approximately 10 years after baseline. At follow-up, 21.0% of white participants and 23.0% of black participants had died; additionally 22.0% of white participants and 28.4% of black participants had withdrawn. Individual probabilities of completing the follow-up visit were estimated using baseline demographic and health characteristics. Adjusted risk ratio estimates of racial disparities from complete-case analyses in both incident hypertension (1.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.21) and incident left ventricular hypertrophy (1.02, 95% confidence interval: 0.84, 1.24) were virtually identical to estimates from inverse probability of attrition weighting and survivor average causal effect. Despite racial differences in mortality and attrition, we found little evidence of selection bias in the estimation of racial differences for these incident risk factors.

SUBMITTER: Long DL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6395161 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An Investigation of Selection Bias in Estimating Racial Disparity in Stroke Risk Factors.

Long D Leann DL Howard George G Long Dustin M DM Judd Suzanne S Manly Jennifer J JJ McClure Leslie A LA Wadley Virginia G VG Safford Monika M MM Katz Ronit R Glymour M Maria MM

American journal of epidemiology 20190301 3

Selection due to survival or attrition might bias estimates of racial disparities in health, but few studies quantify the likely magnitude of such bias. In a large national cohort with moderate loss to follow-up, we contrasted racial differences in 2 stroke risk factors, incident hypertension and incident left ventricular hypertrophy, estimated by complete-case analyses, inverse probability of attrition weighting, and the survivor average causal effect. We used data on 12,497 black and 17,660 wh ...[more]

PMID: 30452548

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Project description:Background and Purpose- In the United States, black Americans exhibit a greater risk of stroke and burden of stroke risk factors than whites; however, it is unclear whether these stroke risk factors influence stroke risk differently across racial groups. Methods- In total, 126 018 participants of the Women's Health Initiative (11 389 black and 114 629 white women), free of stroke and coronary heart disease at baseline (1994-1998), were followed through 2010. Participants completed baseline clinical exams with standardized measurements of blood pressure and anthropometrics, medication inventory and self-reported questionnaires on sociodemographics, behaviors/lifestyle, and medical history. Incident total, ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes were updated annually through questionnaires with medical record confirmation. Rate differences (per 100 000 person-years) and hazard ratios (HR) based on multivariable Cox models and were estimated. Results- Over a median of 13 years, 4344 stroke events were observed. Absolute incidence rates were higher in black than white women in each age group. In age-adjusted analyses, the risk of stroke was significantly higher among black compared with white women (HR=1.47, 95% CI, 1.33-1.63); adjustment for stroke risk factors, which may be on the causal pathway, attenuated the estimate. Racial disparities were greatest among women 50 to <60 years (HR=3.48; 95% CI, 2.31-5.26; rate difference =99) and diminished with increasing age (60 to <70 HR=1.80; 95% CI, 1.50-2.16; rate difference =107; ≥70 years: HR=1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.43; rate difference =87; Pinteraction <0.001). Black women 50 to <60 years remained at significantly higher risk than white women after adjustment for stroke risk factors (HR=1.76; 95% CI, 1.09-2.83). Conclusions- There was a moderately greater risk of total stroke among black compared with white women; however, racial disparities were greatest among women aged 50 to <60 years. Interventions targeted at younger black women may provide the greatest benefit in reducing disparities.

Project description:ImportanceIn the United States, black individuals are twice as likely to develop type 2 diabetes compared with white individuals, and these disparities are particularly pronounced in young and middle age. Prior studies have identified differences in traditional risk factors that may be associated with racial disparities in diabetes incidence but have not simultaneously adjusted for risk factors measured across multiple domains (eg, the individual and the environment) and updated over time.ObjectiveTo determine the relative associations of modifiable biological, neighborhood, psychosocial, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors in young adulthood with the observed racial disparity in diabetes incidence between middle-aged black and white individuals.Design, setting, and participantsBlack and white men and women from the observational Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, aged 18 to 30 years, without diabetes at baseline (1985-1986; N = 4251) were observed through 2015-2016. Sex-stratified multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards modeling, with adjustment for time-updated covariates, was used to estimate risk for incident diabetes. Percent reduction in the β coefficient (the logarithm used to calculate the hazard ratio [HR]) was calculated to compare black to white participants.ExposuresSelf-identified race and factors including biological (eg, fasting glucose, body mass index), neighborhood (racial segregation and tract-level poverty), psychosocial (depressive symptoms), socioeconomic (eg, personal and parental educational attainment, current employment), and behavioral (eg, regular alcohol consumption, smoking) domains.Main outcomes and measuresIncident type 2 diabetes mellitus.ResultsThe mean (SD) age at baseline was 25 (3.6) years, 49% (n = 2066) of the sample was black, and 54% (n = 2304) were women. Over a mean follow-up of 24.5 years, 504 cases of incident diabetes were identified. Using sex-stratified multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, black women and men were more likely to develop diabetes than white men and women (black women: HR, 2.86 [95% CI, 2.19-3.72] and risk difference [RD], 89 cases/1000 people [95% CI, 61-117]; black men: HR, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.28-2.17] and RD, 47 cases/1000 people [95% CI, 15-78]) after adjustment for age and center. Biological factors were most strongly associated with the disparity in diabetes risk between black and white individuals for women (percent reduction in β, 112%) and men (percent reduction in β, 86%). There was no longer disparity in diabetes risk between black and white middle-aged adults after adjustment for biological, neighborhood, psychosocial, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors measured over time (HR for women, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.55-1.14]; HR for men, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.62-1.38]).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study comparing black and white participants, there was a statistically significant increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes among black women and men. However, after adjustment for modifiable risk factors during young adulthood, the disparity was no longer statistically significant.

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An Investigation of Selection Bias in Estimating Racial Disparity in Stroke Risk Factors.

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An Investigation of Selection Bias in Estimating Racial Disparity in Stroke Risk Factors.

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