Dataset Information

Climate and landscape changes as driving forces for future range shift in southern populations of the European badger.

ABSTRACT: Human-Induced Rapid Environmental Change (HIREC), particularly climate change and habitat conversion, affects species distributions worldwide. Here, we aimed to (i) assess the factors that determine range patterns of European badger (Meles meles) at the southwestern edge of their distribution and (ii) forecast the possible impacts of future climate and landcover changes on those patterns. We surveyed 272 cells of 5?×?5?km, to assess badger presence and confirmed its occurrence in 95 cells (35%). Our models estimate that badger's presence is promoted by the occurrence of herbaceous fields and shrublands (5%-10%), and low proportions of Eucalyptus plantations (<~15%). Regions with >50% of podzols and eruptive rocks, higher sheep/goat density (>4?ind/km2), an absence of cattle, intermediate precipitation regimes (800-1000?mm/year) and mild mean temperatures (15-16?°C) are also more likely to host badgers. We predict a decrease in favourability of southern areas for hosting badgers under forecasted climate and landcover change scenarios, which may lead to a northwards retraction of the species southern distribution limit, but the overall landscape favourability is predicted to slightly increase. The forecasted retraction may affect community functional integrity, as its role in southern ecological networks will be vacant.

SUBMITTER: Rosalino LM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6395600 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate and landscape changes as driving forces for future range shift in southern populations of the European badger.

Rosalino Luís M LM Guedes Diana D Cabecinha Diogo D Serronha Ana A Grilo Clara C Santos-Reis Margarida M Monterroso Pedro P Carvalho João J Fonseca Carlos C Pardavila Xosé X Virgós Emílio E Hipólito Dário D

Scientific reports 20190228 1

Human-Induced Rapid Environmental Change (HIREC), particularly climate change and habitat conversion, affects species distributions worldwide. Here, we aimed to (i) assess the factors that determine range patterns of European badger (Meles meles) at the southwestern edge of their distribution and (ii) forecast the possible impacts of future climate and landcover changes on those patterns. We surveyed 272 cells of 5 × 5 km, to assess badger presence and confirmed its occurrence in 95 cells (35%). ...[more]

PMID: 30816237

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Project description:Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival.

Dataset Information

Climate and landscape changes as driving forces for future range shift in southern populations of the European badger.

Publications

Climate and landscape changes as driving forces for future range shift in southern populations of the European badger.

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