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The association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly in Brazil 2015-2017: An observational analysis of over 4 million births.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In 2015, high rates of microcephaly were reported in Northeast Brazil following the first South American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. Reported microcephaly rates in other Zika-affected areas were significantly lower, suggesting alternate causes or the involvement of arboviral cofactors in exacerbating microcephaly rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We merged data from multiple national reporting databases in Brazil to estimate exposure to 9 known or hypothesized causes of microcephaly for every pregnancy nationwide since the beginning of the ZIKV outbreak; this generated between 3.6 and 5.4 million cases (depending on analysis) over the time period 1 January 2015-23 May 2017. The association between ZIKV and microcephaly was statistically tested against models with alternative causes or with effect modifiers. We found no evidence for alternative non-ZIKV causes of the 2015-2017 microcephaly outbreak, nor that concurrent exposure to arbovirus infection or vaccination modified risk. We estimate an absolute risk of microcephaly of 40.8 (95% CI 34.2-49.3) per 10,000 births and a relative risk of 16.8 (95% CI 3.2-369.1) given ZIKV infection in the first or second trimester of pregnancy; however, because ZIKV infection rates were highly variable, most pregnant women in Brazil during the ZIKV outbreak will have been subject to lower risk levels. Statistically significant associations of ZIKV with other birth defects were also detected, but at lower relative risks than that of microcephaly (relative risk < 1.5). Our analysis was limited by missing data prior to the establishment of nationwide ZIKV surveillance, and its findings may be affected by unmeasured confounding causes of microcephaly not available in routinely collected surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS:This study strengthens the evidence that congenital ZIKV infection, particularly in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy, is associated with microcephaly and less frequently with other birth defects. The finding of no alternative causes for geographic differences in microcephaly rate leads us to hypothesize that the Northeast region was disproportionately affected by this Zika outbreak, with 94% of an estimated 8.5 million total cases occurring in this region, suggesting a need for seroprevalence surveys to determine the underlying reason.

SUBMITTER: Brady OJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6400331 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly in Brazil 2015-2017: An observational analysis of over 4 million births.

Brady Oliver J OJ Osgood-Zimmerman Aaron A Kassebaum Nicholas J NJ Ray Sarah E SE de Araújo Valdelaine E M VEM da Nóbrega Aglaêr A AA Frutuoso Livia C V LCV Lecca Roberto C R RCR Stevens Antony A Zoca de Oliveira Bruno B de Lima José M JM Bogoch Isaac I II Mayaud Philippe P Jaenisch Thomas T Mokdad Ali H AH Murray Christopher J L CJL Hay Simon I SI Reiner Robert C RC Marinho Fatima F

PLoS medicine 20190305 3

<h4>Background</h4>In 2015, high rates of microcephaly were reported in Northeast Brazil following the first South American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. Reported microcephaly rates in other Zika-affected areas were significantly lower, suggesting alternate causes or the involvement of arboviral cofactors in exacerbating microcephaly rates.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We merged data from multiple national reporting databases in Brazil to estimate exposure to 9 known or hypothesized causes of micro ...[more]

PMID: 30835728

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Project description:The Zika virus (ZIKV) has rapidly reached epidemic proportions, especially in northeastern Brazil, and has rapidly spread to other parts of the Americas. A recent increase in the prevalence of microcephaly in newborn infants and vision-threatening findings in these infants is likely associated with the rapid spread of ZIKV.To evaluate the ocular findings in infants with microcephaly associated with presumed intrauterine ZIKV infection in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.Case series at a tertiary hospital. Twenty-nine infants with microcephaly (defined by a cephalic circumference of ≤32 cm) with a presumed diagnosis of congenital ZIKV were recruited through an active search and referrals from other hospitals and health unities. The study was conducted between December 1 and December 21, 2015.All infants and mothers underwent systemic and ophthalmic examinations from December 1 through December 21, 2015, in the Roberto Santos General Hospital, Salvador, Brazil. Anterior segment and retinal, choroidal, and optic nerve abnormalities were documented using a wide-field digital imaging system. The differential diagnosis included toxoplasmosis, rubella, cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus, syphilis, and human immunodeficiency virus, which were ruled out through serologic and clinical examinations.Ocular abnormalities associated with ZIKV.Twenty-three of 29 mothers (79.3%) reported suspected ZIKV infection signs and symptoms during pregnancy, 18 in the first trimester, 4 in the second trimester, and 1 in the third trimester. Of the 29 infants (58 eyes) examined (18 [62.1%] female), ocular abnormalities were present in 17 eyes (29.3%) of 10 children (34.5%). Bilateral findings were found in 7 of 10 patients presenting with ocular lesions, the most common of which were focal pigment mottling of the retina and chorioretinal atrophy in 11 of the 17 eyes with abnormalities (64.7%), followed by optic nerve abnormalities in 8 eyes (47.1%), bilateral iris coloboma in 1 patient (2 eyes [11.8%]), and lens subluxation in 1 eye (5.9%).Congenital infection due to presumed ZIKV exposure is associated with vision-threatening findings, which include bilateral macular and perimacular lesions as well as optic nerve abnormalities in most cases.

Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV), first discovered in Uganda in 1947, re-emerged globally in 2013 and was later associated with microcephaly and other birth defects. We determined the incidence of ZIKV infection and its association with adverse pregnancy and fetal outcomes in a pregnancy cohort in Kenya.MethodsFrom October 2017 to July 2019, we recruited and followed up women aged ≥ 15 years and ≤ 28 weeks pregnant in three hospitals in coastal Mombasa. Monthly follow-up included risk factor questions and a blood sample collected for ZIKV serology. We collected anthropometric measures (including head circumference), cord blood, venous blood from newborns, and any evidence of birth defects. Microcephaly was defined as a head circumference (HC) < 2 standard deviations (SD) for sex and gestational age. Severe microcephaly was defined as HC < 3 SD for sex and age. We tested sera for anti-ZIKV IgM antibodies using capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and confirmed positives using the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT90) for ZIKV and for dengue (DENV) on the samples that were ZIKV neutralizing antibody positive. We collected blood and urine from participants reporting fever or rash for ZIKV testing.ResultsOf 2889 pregnant women screened for eligibility, 2312 (80%) were enrolled. Of 1916 recorded deliveries, 1816 (94.6%) were live births and 100 (5.2%) were either stillbirths or spontaneous abortions (< 22 weeks of gestation). Among 1236 newborns with complete anthropometric measures, 11 (0.9%) had microcephaly and 3 (0.2%) had severe microcephaly. A total of 166 (7.2%) participants were positive for anti-ZIKV IgM, 136 of whom became seropositive during follow-up. Among the 166 anti-ZIKV IgM positive, 3 and 18 participants were further seropositive for ZIKV and DENV neutralizing antibodies, respectively. Of these 3 and 18 pregnant women, one and 13 (72.2%) seroconverted with antibodies to ZIKV and DENV, respectively. All 308 samples (serum and urine samples collected during sick visits and samples that were anti-ZIKV IgM positive) tested by RT-PCR were negative for ZIKV. No adverse pregnancy or neonatal outcomes were reported among the three participants with confirmed ZIKV exposure. Among newborns from pregnant women with DENV exposure, four (22.2%) were small for gestational age and one (5.6%) had microcephaly.ConclusionsThe prevalence of severe microcephaly among newborns in coastal Kenya was high relative to published estimates from facility-based studies in Europe and Latin America, but little evidence of ZIKV transmission. There is a need for improved surveillance for microcephaly and other congenital malformations in Kenya.

Dataset Information

The association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly in Brazil 2015-2017: An observational analysis of over 4 million births.

Publications

The association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly in Brazil 2015-2017: An observational analysis of over 4 million births.

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