Dataset Information

Development and Validation of Nomograms Predictive of Axillary Nodal Status to Guide Surgical Decision-Making in Early-Stage Breast Cancer.

ABSTRACT: Purpose: To develop and validate nomogram models using noninvasive imaging parameters with related clinical variables to predict the extent of axillary nodal involvement and stratify treatment options based on the essential cut-offs for axillary surgery according to the ACOSOG Z0011 criteria. Materials and Methods: From May 2007 to December 2017, 1799 patients who underwent preoperative breast and axillary magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were retrospectively studied. Patients with data on axillary ultrasonography (AUS) were enrolled. The MRI images were interpreted according to Breast Imaging Reporting and Data system (BI-RADS). Using logistic regression analyses, nomograms were developed to visualize the associations between the predictors and each lymph node (LN) status endpoint. Predictive performance was assessed based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Bootstrap resampling was performed for internal validation. Goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: Of 397 early breast cancer patients, 200 (50.4%) had disease-free axilla, 119 (30.0%) had 1 or 2 positive LNs, and 78 (19.6%) had ?3 positive LNs. Patient age, MRI features (mass margin, LN margin, presence/absence of LN hilum, and LN symmetry/asymmetry), and AUS descriptors (presence of cortical thickening or hilum) were identified as predictors of nodal disease. Nomograms with these predictors showed good calibration and discrimination; the AUC was 0.809 for negative axillary node (N0) vs. any LN metastasis, 0.749 for 1 or 2 involved nodes vs. N0, and 0.874 for ?3 nodes vs. ?2 metastatic nodes. The predictive ability of the 3 nomograms with additional pathological variables was significantly greater. Conclusion: The nomograms could predict the extent of ALN metastasis and facilitate decision-making preoperatively.

SUBMITTER: Li J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6400691 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and Validation of Nomograms Predictive of Axillary Nodal Status to Guide Surgical Decision-Making in Early-Stage Breast Cancer.

Li Jiao J Ma Weimei W Jiang Xinhua X Cui Chunyan C Wang Hongli H Chen Jiewen J Nie Runcong R Wu Yaopan Y Li Li L

Journal of Cancer 20190129 5

<b>Purpose</b>: To develop and validate nomogram models using noninvasive imaging parameters with related clinical variables to predict the extent of axillary nodal involvement and stratify treatment options based on the essential cut-offs for axillary surgery according to the ACOSOG Z0011 criteria. <b>Materials and Methods</b>: From May 2007 to December 2017, 1799 patients who underwent preoperative breast and axillary magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were retrospectively studied. Patients with ...[more]

PMID: 30854136

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Project description:IntroductionThe axillary lymph node (ALN) status of breast cancer patients is an important prognostic indicator. The use of primary breast mass features for the prediction of ALN status is rare. Two nomograms based on preoperative ultrasound (US) images of breast tumors and ALNs were developed for the prediction of ALN status.MethodsA total of 743 breast cancer cases collected from 2016 to 2019 at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University were randomly divided into a training set (n = 523) and a test set (n = 220). A primary tumor feature model (PTFM) and ALN feature model (ALNFM) were separately generated based on tumor features alone, and a combination of features was used for the prediction of ALN status. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct the nomograms. A receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted to obtain the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate accuracy, and bias-corrected AUC values and calibration curves were obtained by bootstrap resampling for internal and external verification. Decision curve analysis was applied to assess the clinical utility of the models.ResultsThe AUCs of the PTFM were 0.69 and 0.67 for the training and test sets, respectively, and the bias-corrected AUCs of the PTFM were 0.67 and 0.67, respectively. Moreover, the AUCs of the ALNFM were 0.86 and 0.84, respectively, and the bias-corrected AUCs were 0.85 and 0.81, respectively. Compared with the PTFM, the ALNFM showed significantly improved prediction accuracy (p < 0.001). Both the calibration and decision curves of the ALNFM nomogram indicated greater accuracy and clinical practicality. When the US tumor size was ≤21.5 mm, the Spe was 0.96 and 0.92 in the training and test sets, respectively. When the US tumor size was greater than 21.5 mm, the Sen was 0.85 in the training set and 0.87 in the test set. Our further research showed that when the US tumor size was larger than 35 mm, the Sen was 0.90 in the training set and 0.93 in the test set.ConclusionThe ALNFM could effectively predict ALN status based on US images especially for different US tumor size.

Project description:BackgroundSurgical patients incur preventable harm from cognitive and judgment errors made under time constraints and uncertainty regarding patients' diagnoses and predicted response to treatment. Decision analysis and techniques of reinforcement learning theoretically can mitigate these challenges but are poorly understood and rarely used clinically. This review seeks to promote an understanding of decision analysis and reinforcement learning by describing their use in the context of surgical decision-making.MethodsCochrane, EMBASE, and PubMed databases were searched from their inception to June 2019. Included were 41 articles about cognitive and diagnostic errors, decision-making, decision analysis, and machine-learning. The articles were assimilated into relevant categories according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines.ResultsRequirements for time-consuming manual data entry and crude representations of individual patients and clinical context compromise many traditional decision-support tools. Decision analysis methods for calculating probability thresholds can inform population-based recommendations that jointly consider risks, benefits, costs, and patient values but lack precision for individual patient-centered decisions. Reinforcement learning, a machine-learning method that mimics human learning, can use a large set of patient-specific input data to identify actions yielding the greatest probability of achieving a goal. This methodology follows a sequence of events with uncertain conditions, offering potential advantages for personalized, patient-centered decision-making. Clinical application would require secure integration of multiple data sources and attention to ethical considerations regarding liability for errors and individual patient preferences.ConclusionTraditional decision-support tools are ill-equipped to accommodate time constraints and uncertainty regarding diagnoses and the predicted response to treatment, both of which often impair surgical decision-making. Decision analysis and reinforcement learning have the potential to play complementary roles in delivering high-value surgical care through sound judgment and optimal decision-making.

Dataset Information

Development and Validation of Nomograms Predictive of Axillary Nodal Status to Guide Surgical Decision-Making in Early-Stage Breast Cancer.

Publications

Development and Validation of Nomograms Predictive of Axillary Nodal Status to Guide Surgical Decision-Making in Early-Stage Breast Cancer.

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