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Impact of next-generation vehicles on tropospheric ozone estimated by chemical transport model in the Kanto region of Japan.

ABSTRACT: The plans to introduce next-generation hybrid and zero-emission vehicles in the market are now enacted by governments in many countries to manage both global warming and air pollution problems. There are only a few studies evaluating the effects of the next-generation vehicles on the changes in concentrations of ozone generated by the photochemical reactions between volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides (NOx). To evaluate these changes, we performed chemical transport modeling in the Kanto region, Japan in the summer of 2013. The results show that if the vehicles are substituted by hybrid vehicles, average ozone concentrations increase in urban areas and decrease in suburban areas due to NOx titration. Substitution with zero-emission passenger vehicles decreases the concentrations in both urban and suburban areas. Substitution with both hybrid and zero-emission passenger and heavy-duty vehicles highly increases the concentrations in urban areas. Using the model results, we also discuss the effect of ozone concentration changes on premature mortality of humans in summer. The results suggest that, in some cases the introduction of next-generation vehicles might exasperate ozone concentrations, even leading to 5 to 10 times higher premature mortality during the summer compared to that of influenza and heat stroke in Japan.

SUBMITTER: Hata H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6400957 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The interaction between transport and chemistry is pivotal for local ozone (O3) concentration, especially for a coastal region where the upstream sources might change diurnally. In the current emission control policy, most pollutants, such as particulate matter, SO2, NOx, and CO, decrease while the annual O3 trend might increase due to the complex feedbacks of precursors. In this study, we investigate the influence of transport upon the wintertime O3 diurnal trend over ZuoYing Kaohsiung, an urban coastal site in southern Taiwan, by constructing a two-dimensional numerical model coupling both physical mechanisms and core chemical processes and provide a feasible emission control strategy. The transport process (i.e., import vs. export) for the daytime is determined using the Leighton Ratio (Φ), the ratio of O3-production over O3-loss rate, under the pseudo-steady-state condition. Φ shows a deviation of -9 to +13% from the photo-stationary state, and experiences a transition from import effect before 10:15 to weakening import or net export effect afterward associated with a net O3 production as sea breeze starts developing. The significantly higher Φ derived from observation than from simulation by a factor of 1.35 might be resulted from the over-reported NO2 due to NOy contribution on the NO2 measurement, and the influence of aerosol and cloud possibly reducing ∼30% on applied NO2 photolysis rate constant, associated with aerosol optical depth of 0.75 ± 0.15 and single scattering albedo of 0.85 ± 0.15. In this studied NOx-saturated regime, the addition of sea breeze convergence over the land enhances the maximal O3 by ∼10%, mainly due to the O3 accumulation (∼88%). Furthermore, the ozone isopleth analysis as a function of non-methane hydrocarbons and NOx emissions provides an achievable strategy to decrease both maximum daily ozone and the increment of ozone from morning to maximum by reducing hydrocarbons and NOx emissions, which can also eliminate the additional nitrate contribution on the aerosols. Highlights • Leighton Ratio variation illustrates the transition of the ozone transport process.• Transport causes the noontime O3 time lag under pseudo-steady state conditions.• AOD and SSA are derived under the apparent photo-stationary condition.• Sea breeze convergence increases O3 primarily via physical accumulation.• A feasible emission control strategy is proposed by superposed isopleth diagrams. Ozone, Photochemistry, Leighton Ratio, Sea Breeze, Ozone Isopleth

Project description:Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.

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Impact of next-generation vehicles on tropospheric ozone estimated by chemical transport model in the Kanto region of Japan.

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