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Machine Learning Outperforms ACC / AHA CVD Risk Calculator in MESA.

ABSTRACT: Background Studies have demonstrated that the current US guidelines based on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Calculator may underestimate risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) in certain high-risk individuals, therefore missing opportunities for intensive therapy and preventing CVD events. Similarly, the guidelines may overestimate risk in low risk populations resulting in unnecessary statin therapy. We used Machine Learning ( ML ) to tackle this problem. Methods and Results We developed a ML Risk Calculator based on Support Vector Machines ( SVM s) using a 13-year follow up data set from MESA (the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) of 6459 participants who were atherosclerotic CVD-free at baseline. We provided identical input to both risk calculators and compared their performance. We then used the FLEMENGHO study (the Flemish Study of Environment, Genes and Health Outcomes) to validate the model in an external cohort. ACC / AHA Risk Calculator, based on 7.5% 10-year risk threshold, recommended statin to 46.0%. Despite this high proportion, 23.8% of the 480 "Hard CVD " events occurred in those not recommended statin, resulting in sensitivity 0.76, specificity 0.56, and AUC 0.71. In contrast, ML Risk Calculator recommended only 11.4% to take statin, and only 14.4% of "Hard CVD " events occurred in those not recommended statin, resulting in sensitivity 0.86, specificity 0.95, and AUC 0.92. Similar results were found for prediction of "All CVD " events. Conclusions The ML Risk Calculator outperformed the ACC/AHA Risk Calculator by recommending less drug therapy, yet missing fewer events. Additional studies are underway to validate the ML model in other cohorts and to explore its ability in short-term CVD risk prediction.

SUBMITTER: Kakadiaris IA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6404456 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine Learning Outperforms ACC / AHA CVD Risk Calculator in MESA.

Kakadiaris Ioannis A IA Vrigkas Michalis M Yen Albert A AA Kuznetsova Tatiana T Budoff Matthew M Naghavi Morteza M

Journal of the American Heart Association 20181101 22

Background Studies have demonstrated that the current US guidelines based on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Calculator may underestimate risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) in certain high-risk individuals, therefore missing opportunities for intensive therapy and preventing CVD events. Similarly, the guidelines may overestimate risk in low risk populations resulting in unnecessary statin therapy. We used Machin ...[more]

PMID: 30571498

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) blood pressure (BP) guideline provides updated recommendations for antihypertensive medication initiation and intensification. OBJECTIVES:Determine the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events among adults recommended and not recommended antihypertensive medication initiation or intensification by the 2017 ACC/AHA BP guideline. METHODS:The authors analyzed data for black and white REGARDS (REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke) study participants (age ?45 years). Systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were measured twice at baseline (2003 to 2007) and averaged. Participants not taking (n = 14,039) and taking (n = 15,179) antihypertensive medication were categorized according to their recommendations for antihypertensive medication initiation and intensification by the 2017 ACC/AHA guideline. Overall, 4,094 CVD events (stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart failure) occurred by December 31, 2014. RESULTS:Among participants not taking antihypertensive medication, 34.4% were recommended pharmacological antihypertensive treatment initiation. The CVD event rate per 1,000 person-years among participants recommended antihypertensive medication initiation with SBP/DBP ?140/90 mm Hg was 22.7 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.3 to 25.0). Among participants with SBP/DBP 130 to 139/80 to 89 mm Hg, the CVD event rate was 20.5 (95% CI: 18.5 to 22.6) and 3.4 (95% CI: 2.4 to 4.4) for those recommended and not recommended antihypertensive medication initiation, respectively. Among participants taking antihypertensive medication, 62.8% were recommended treatment intensification. The CVD event rate per 1,000 person-years among participants recommended treatment intensification was 33.6 (95% CI: 31.5 to 35.6) and 22.4 (95% CI: 20.8 to 23.9) for those with SBP/DBP ?140/90 mm Hg and 130 to 139/80 to 89 mm Hg, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Implementing the 2017 ACC/AHA guideline would direct antihypertensive medication initiation and intensification to adults with high CVD risk.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Guideline for the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation and Management of High Blood Pressure in Adults provides recommendations for the definition of hypertension, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP) thresholds for initiation of antihypertensive medication, and BP target goals. OBJECTIVES:This study sought to determine the prevalence of hypertension, implications of recommendations for antihypertensive medication, and prevalence of BP above the treatment goal among US adults using criteria from the 2017 ACC/AHA guideline and the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC7). METHODS:The authors analyzed data from the 2011 to 2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (N = 9 623). BP was measured 3 times following a standardized protocol and averaged. Results were weighted to produce US population estimates. RESULTS:According to the 2017 ACC/AHA and JNC7 guidelines, the crude prevalence of hypertension among US adults was 45.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 43.6% to 47.6%) and 31.9% (95% CI: 30.1% to 33.7%), respectively, and antihypertensive medication was recommended for 36.2% (95% CI: 34.2% to 38.2%) and 34.3% (95% CI: 32.5% to 36.2%) of US adults, respectively. Nonpharmacological intervention is advised for the 9.4% of US adults with hypertension who are not recommended for antihypertensive medication according to the 2017 ACC/AHA guideline. Among US adults taking antihypertensive medication, 53.4% (95% CI: 49.9% to 56.8%) and 39.0% (95% CI: 36.4% to 41.6%) had BP above the treatment goal according to the 2017 ACC/AHA and JNC7 guidelines, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Compared with the JNC7 guideline, the 2017 ACC/AHA guideline results in a substantial increase in the prevalence of hypertension, a small increase in the percentage of US adults recommended for antihypertensive medication, and more intensive BP lowering for many adults taking antihypertensive medication.

Dataset Information

Machine Learning Outperforms ACC / AHA CVD Risk Calculator in MESA.

Publications

Machine Learning Outperforms ACC / AHA CVD Risk Calculator in MESA.

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