Predictive Modeling for Geriatric Hip Fracture Patients: Early Surgery and Delirium Have the Largest Influence on Length of Stay.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hecht G
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6411423 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Predictive Modeling for Geriatric Hip Fracture Patients: Early Surgery and Delirium Have the Largest Influence on Length of Stay.
Hecht Garin G Slee Christina A CA Goodell Parker B PB Taylor Sandra L SL Wolinsky Philip R PR
The Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons 20190301 6
<h4>Background</h4>Averaging length of stay (LOS) ignores patient complexity and is a poor metric for quality control in geriatric hip fracture programs. We developed a predictive model of LOS that compares patient complexity to the logistic effects of our institution's hip fracture care pathway.<h4>Methods</h4>A retrospective analysis was performed on patients enrolled into a hip fracture co-management pathway at an academic level I trauma center from 2014 to 2015. Patient complexity was approx ...[more]
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Project description:IMPORTANCE:More than 300,000 hip fractures occur each year in the United States. Recent practice guidelines have advocated greater use of regional anesthesia for hip fracture surgery. OBJECTIVE:To test the association of regional (ie, spinal or epidural) anesthesia vs general anesthesia with 30-day mortality and hospital length of stay after hip fracture. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS:We conducted a matched retrospective cohort study involving patients 50 years or older who were undergoing surgery for hip fracture at general acute care hospitals in New York State between July 1, 2004, and December 31, 2011. Our main analysis was a near-far instrumental variable match that paired patients who lived at different distances from hospitals that specialized in regional or general anesthesia. Supplementary analyses included a within-hospital match that paired patients within the same hospital and an across-hospital match that paired patients at different hospitals. EXPOSURES:Spinal or epidural anesthesia; general anesthesia. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:Thirty-day mortality and hospital length of stay. Because the distribution of length of stay had long tails, we characterized this outcome using the Huber M estimate with Huber weights, a robust estimator similar to a trimmed mean. RESULTS:Of 56,729 patients, 15,904 (28%) received regional anesthesia and 40,825 (72%) received general anesthesia. Overall, 3032 patients (5.3%) died. The M estimate of the length of stay was 6.2 days (95% CI, 6.2 to 6.2). The near-far matched analysis showed no significant difference in 30-day mortality by anesthesia type among the 21,514 patients included in this match: 583 of 10,757 matched patients (5.4%) who lived near a regional anesthesia-specialized hospital died vs 629 of 10,757 matched patients (5.8%) who lived near a general anesthesia-specialized hospital (instrumental variable estimate of risk difference, -1.1%; 95% CI, -2.8 to 0.5; P?=?.20). Supplementary analyses of within and across hospital patient matches yielded mortality findings to be similar to the main analysis. In the near-far match, regional anesthesia was associated with a 0.6-day shorter length of stay than general anesthesia (95% CI, -0.8 to -0.4, P?<?.001). Supplementary analyses also showed regional anesthesia to be associated with shorter length of stay, although the observed association was smaller in magnitude than in the main analysis. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:Among adults in acute care hospitals in New York State undergoing hip repair, the use of regional anesthesia compared with general anesthesia was not associated with lower 30-day mortality but was associated with a modestly shorter length of stay. These findings do not support a mortality benefit for regional anesthesia in this setting.
| S-EPMC4344128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionPostoperative delirium is a common complication of patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or arthroplasty and is related to decreased survival time and physical function. In this study, we aim to build and validate a prediction score of postoperative delirium in geriatric patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or hip arthroplasty.MethodsA retrospective cohort of geriatric patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or hip arthroplasty was established. Variables of included patients were collected as candidate predictors of postoperative delirium. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and logistic regression were used to derive a predictive score for postoperative delirium. The accuracy of the score was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC). We used bootstrapping resamples for model calibration. The prediction score was validated in an extra cohort.ResultsThere were 1,312 patients in the derivation cohort, and the incidence of postoperative delirium was 14.33%. Of 40 variables, 9 were identified as predictors, including preoperative delirium, cerebrovascular accident (CVA) with the modified Rankin scale, diabetes with a random glucose level, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), age, application of benzodiazepines in surgery, surgical delay ≥2 days, creatine ≥90 μmol/L, and active smoker. The prediction score achieved a mean AUC of 0.848 in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort, the mean AUC was 0.833. The prediction model was well-calibrated in the two cohorts.ConclusionBased on retrospective data, a prediction score for postoperative delirium in geriatric patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or hip arthroplasty was derived and validated. The performance of the scoring system outperformed the models from previous studies. Although the generalization ability of the score needs to be tested in similar populations, the scoring system will enable delirium risk stratification for hip fracture patients and facilitate the development of strategies for delirium prevention.
| S-EPMC9437918 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThis study aims to examine the association between preoperative serum albumin levels and postoperative delirium (POD) in geriatric patients who have undergone hip fracture surgery, with the goal of offering novel insights for clinical interventions targeting POD.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on the medical records of patients who underwent hip fracture surgery in a tertiary medical institution from January 2013 to November 2023. The patients were classified based on hypoalbuminemia (defined as a serum albumin level < 35 g/L) and clinical threshold. Multivariable logistic regression and propensity score matching analysis (PSM) were employed to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for POD to eliminate potential confounding factors. Additionally, subgroup analysis was performed to explore the interaction effect.ResultsThe retrospective cohort study included 1,440 patients, with an incidence of POD found to be 19.1%. In a multivariable logistic regression analysis, patients with hypoalbuminemia had an adjusted OR of 2.99 (95%CI: 2.14-4.18) compared to those with normal albumin levels (≥ 35 g/L). Furthermore, a significant trend was observed across different severity categories, including mild hypoalbuminemia (34.9-30.0 g/L; adjusted OR = 2.71, 95%CI: 1.84-3.99), moderate hypoalbuminemia (29.9-25.0 g/L, adjusted OR = 3.44, 95%CI: 1.88-6.28), and severe hypoalbuminemia (<25.0 g/L; adjusted OR = 3.97, 95%CI: 1.78-8.86), with a trend value of p <0.001. Similar results were observed in the PSM analysis. Additionally, treating preoperative serum albumin level as a continuous variable, the risk of POD increased by 11% (95% CI, 1.08-1.15) with each 1 g/L decrease in preoperative serum albumin level.ConclusionLow preoperative levels of albumin are strongly associated with POD in geriatric patients with hip fractures, and a significant dose-response relationship exists between them.
| S-EPMC10899384 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe management of preoperative blood glucose levels in reducing the incidence of postoperative delirium (POD) remains controversial. This study aims to investigate the impact of preoperative persistent hyperglycemia on POD in geriatric patients with hip fractures.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study analyzed medical records of patients who underwent hip fracture surgery at a tertiary medical institution between January 2013 and November 2023. Patients were categorized based on preoperative hyperglycemia (hyperglycemia defined as ≥ 6.1mmol/L), clinical classification of hyperglycemia, and percentile thresholds. Multivariate logistic regression and propensity score matching analysis (PSM) were employed to assess the association between different levels of preoperative glucose and POD. Subgroup analysis was conducted to explore potential interactions.ResultsA total of 1440 patients were included in this study, with an incidence rate of POD at 19.1% (275/1440). Utilizing multiple logistic analysis, we found that patients with hyperglycemia had a 1.65-fold increased risk of experiencing POD compared to those with normal preoperative glucose levels (95% CI: 1.17-2.32). Moreover, a significant upward trend was discerned in both the strength of association and the predicted probability of POD with higher preoperative glucose levels. PSM did not alter this trend, even after meticulous adjustments for potential confounding factors. Additionally, when treating preoperative glucose levels as a continuous variable, we observed a 6% increase in the risk of POD (95% CI: 1-12%) with each 1mmol/L elevation in preoperative glucose levels.ConclusionsThere exists a clear linear dose-response relationship between preoperative blood glucose levels and the risk of POD. Higher preoperative hyperglycemia was associated with a greater risk of POD.Clinical trial numberNCT06473324.
| S-EPMC11232206 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeAn ageing population at greater risk of proximal femoral fracture places an additional clinical and financial burden on hospital and community medical services. We analyse the variation in i) length of stay (LoS) in hospital and ii) costs across the acute care pathway for hip fracture from emergency admission, to hospital stay and follow-up outpatient appointments.Patients and methodsWe analyse patient-level data from England for 2009/10 for around 60,000 hip fracture cases in 152 hospitals using a random effects generalized linear multi-level model where the dependent variable is given by the patient's cost or length of stay (LoS). We control for socio-economic characteristics, type of fracture and intervention, co-morbidities, discharge destination of patients, and quality indicators. We also control for provider and social care characteristics.ResultsOlder patients and those from more deprived areas have higher costs and LoS, as do those with specific co-morbidities or that develop pressure ulcers, and those transferred between hospitals or readmitted within 28 days. Costs are also higher for those having a computed tomography (CT) scan or cemented arthroscopy. Costs and LoS are lower for those admitted via a 24h emergency department, receiving surgery on the same day of admission, and discharged to their own homes.InterpretationPatient and treatment characteristics are more important as determinants of cost and LoS than provider or social care factors. A better understanding of the impact of these characteristics can support providers to develop treatment strategies and pathways to better manage this patient population.
| S-EPMC4512684 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Two hypotheses were offered for the effect of shorter hospital stays on mortality after hip fracture surgery: worsening the quality of care and shifting death occurrence to postacute settings.We tested whether the risk of hospital death after hip fracture surgery differed across years when postoperative stays shortened, and whether care factors moderated the association.Analysis of acute hospital discharge abstracts for subgroups defined by hospital type, bed capacity, surgical volume, and admission time.153,917 patients 65 years or older surgically treated for first hip fracture.Risk of hospital death.We found a decrease in the 30-day risk of hospital death from 7.0% (95%CI: 6.6-7.5) in 2004 to 5.4% (95%CI: 5.0-5.7) in 2012, with an adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.71 (95%CI: 0.63-0.80). In subgroup analysis, only large community hospitals showed the reduction of ORs by calendar year. No trend was observed in teaching and medium community hospitals. By 2012, the risk of death in large higher volume community hospitals was 34% lower for weekend admissions, OR = 0.66 (95%CI: 0.46-0.95) and 39% lower for weekday admissions, OR = 0.61 (95%CI: 0.40-0.91), compared to 2004. In large lower volume community hospitals, the 2012 risk was 56% lower for weekend admissions, OR = 0.44 (95%CI: 0.26-0.75), compared to 2004.The risk of hospital death after hip fracture surgery decreased only in large community hospitals, despite universal shortening of hospital stays. This supports the concern of worsening the quality of hip fracture care due to shorter stays.
| S-EPMC5406098 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:Medicare is shifting from payment for postacute care services based on the volume provided to payment based on value as determined by patient characteristics and functional outcomes. Matching therapy time and length of stay (LOS) to patient needs will be critical to optimize functional outcomes and manage costs. Objective:To investigate the association among therapy time, LOS, and functional outcomes for patients following hip fracture surgery. Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective cohort study analyzed data on patients from 4 inpatient rehabilitation facilities and 7 skilled nursing facilities in the eastern and midwestern United States. Participants were patients aged 65 years or older who received inpatient rehabilitation services for hip fracture and had Medicare fee-for-service as their primary payer. Data were collected from 2005 to 2010. Analysis was conducted from November 2018 to June 2019. Exposure:Therapy minutes per LOS day. Main Outcomes and Measures:Functional Independence Measure mobility and self-care measures at discharge. Patients were categorized into 9 recovery groups based on low, medium, or high therapy minutes per LOS day and low, medium, or high rate of functional gain per day. Results:A total of 150 patients (101 [67.3%] female; 148 [98.6%] white; mean [SD] age, 82.0 [7.3] years) met inclusion criteria. Participants in all gain and therapy minutes per LOS day trajectories were similar in function at rehabilitation admission (mean [SD] mobility, 16.2 [3.2]; F8,141 = 1.26; P = .27) but differed significantly at discharge (mean [SD] mobility, 23.9 [5.2]; F8,141 = 14.34; P < .001). High-gain patients achieved mobility independence by discharge; low-gain patients needed assistance on nearly all mobility tasks. Medium-gain patients with a mean LOS of 27 days were independent in mobility at discharge; those with a mean LOS less than 21 days needed supervision with toilet transfers and were dependent with stairs. Length of stay and functional gain rate explained much of the variance in mobility and self-care scores at discharge. Although medium- and high-therapy minutes per LOS day groups were statistically significant in the regression model (β = 6.99; P = .001; and β = 11.46; P = .007, respectively), they explained only 1% of the variance in discharge outcome. Marginal means suggest that medium-gain patients with shorter LOS would have achieved mobility independence if LOS had been extended. Conclusions and Relevance:In this study, rate of recovery and LOS in skilled nursing and inpatient rehabilitation facilities were associated with mobility and self-care outcomes at discharge following hip fracture surgery, particularly for medium-gain patients. Therapy time per day explained only 1% of the variance in discharge outcome. Discharging medium-gain patients before 21 days LOS may transfer burden of care to family and caregivers, home health, and outpatient services.
| S-EPMC6991278 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe management of hip fractures is nowadays mainly performed in Orthogeriatric Units, one of whose fundamental tools is the application of geriatric scores. The purpose of this study is to establish the potential usefulness of Barthel Index, Katz Index, Lawton-Brody Index and Physical Red Cross Scale geriatric scores as predictors of survival rate and readmission rate in older patients after hip fracture surgery.MethodsWe designed a prospective single-center observational study, including 207 older adults over age 65 who underwent hip fracture surgery in the first half of 2014 and followed up to September 2018. Cumulative survival and readmission rates were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier; group comparison, by Log-Rank and hazard ratio, by Cox regression.ResultsWe found statistical differences (p < 0.001) for cumulative survival rate by every geriatric score analyzed (BI HR = 0.98 [0.97,0.99]; KI HR = 1.24 [1.13-1.37]; LBI HR = 1.25 [1.16, 1.36]; PCRS HR = 1.67 [1.37,2.04]). Furthermore, we could determinate an inflection point for survival estimation by Barthel Index (BI 0-55/60-100*, p < 0.001, HR = 2.37 [1.59,3.53]), Katz Index (KI A-B*/C-G, p < 0.001, HR = 2.66 [1.80, 3.93], and Lawton-Brody Index (LBI 0-3/4-8*, p < 0.001, HR = 3.40 [2.09,5.25]). We reveal a correlation of the Charlson Index (p = 0.002) and Katz Index (p = 0.041) with number of readmissions for the study period.ConclusionsThe geriatric scores analyzed are related to the cumulative survival rate after hip fracture surgery for more than 4 years, independently of other clinical and demographic factors. Katz Index in combination with Charlson Index could also be a potential predictor of the number of readmissions after surgery for hip fracture patients.
| S-EPMC6676564 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of our study was to determine the association between admitting service, medicine or orthopaedics, and length of stay (LOS) for a geriatric hip fracture patient.Retrospective.Urban level 1 trauma center.Six hundred fourteen geriatric hip fracture patients from 2000 to 2009.Orthopaedic surgery for geriatric hip fracture.Patient demographics, medical comorbidities, hospitalization length, and admitting service. Negative binomial regression used to determine association between LOS and admitting service.Six hundred fourteen geriatric hip fracture patients were included in the analysis, of whom 49.2% of patients (n = 302) were admitted to the orthopaedic service and 50.8% (3 = 312) to the medicine service. The median LOS for patients admitted to orthopaedics was 4.5 days compared with 7 days for patients admitted to medicine (P < 0.0001). Readmission was also significantly higher for patients admitted to medicine (n = 92, 29.8%) than for those admitted to orthopaedics (n = 70, 23.1%). After controlling for important patient factors, it was determined that medicine patients are expected to stay about 1.5 times (incidence rate ratio: 1.48, P < 0.0001) longer in the hospital than orthopaedic patients.This is the largest study to demonstrate that admission to the medicine service compared with the orthopaedic service increases a geriatric hip fractures patient's expected LOS. Since LOS is a major driver of cost as well as a measure of quality care, it is important to understand the factors that lead to a longer hospital stay to better allocate hospital resources. Based on the results from our institution, orthopaedic surgeons should be aware that admission to medicine might increase a patient's expected LOS.Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
| S-EPMC4841672 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThis systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to identify the potential risk factors for postoperative delirium in geriatric patients with hip fracture.MethodsPubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library were searched from inception until December 31st, 2021. A combined searching strategy of subject words and free words was adopted. Studies involving risk factors for postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing hip fracture surgeries were reviewed. Qualities of included studies were assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Data were pooled and a meta-analysis was performed using Review Manager 5.3.ResultsA total of 37 studies were included. The following risk factors were significant: advanced age (per year increase) (OR: 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.07), age>80 years (OR: 2.26, 95% CI 1.47-3.47), male (OR: 1.53, 95% CI 1.37-1.70), preoperative cognitive impairment (OR:3.20, 95% CI 2.12-4.83), preoperative dementia (OR: 2.74, 95% CI 2.18-3.45), preoperative delirium (OR: 9.23, 95% CI 8.26-10.32), diabetes (OR: 1.18, 95% CI 1.05-1.33), preoperative functional dependence (OR: 1.31, 95% CI 1.11-1.56), ASA level (per level increase) (OR: 1.63, 95% CI 1.04-2.57), ASA level≥3(OR: 1.76, 95% CI 1.39-2.24), low albumin (OR: 3.30, 95% CI 1.44-7.55), medical comorbidities (OR: 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.25), Parkinson's disease (OR: 4.17, 95% CI 1.68-10.31) and surgery delay>48 h (OR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.36-2.65).ConclusionsClinicians should be alert to patients with those risk factors. To identify the risk factors more precisely, more research studies with larger sample size and better design should be conducted.
| S-EPMC9382199 | biostudies-literature