A mathematical model to estimate the seasonal change in apparent longevity of bee colony.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yamada Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6411913 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:IntroductionThe ongoing civil war in Yemen has severely restricted imports of food and fuel, disrupted livelihoods and displaced millions, worsening already high pre-war levels of food insecurity. Paired with frequent outbreaks of disease and a collapsed health system, this has brought rates of wasting in children under five to the country's highest recorded levels, which continue to increase as the crisis worsens and aid becomes increasingly limited. In their planning of services to treat and prevent wasting in children, humanitarian agencies rely on a standard calculation to estimate the expected number of cases for the coming year, where incidence is estimated from prevalence and the average duration of an episode of wasting. The average duration of an episode of moderate and severe wasting is currently estimated at 7.5 months-a globally-used value derived from historical cohort studies. Given that incidence varies considerably by context-where food production and availability, treatment coverage and disease rates all vary-a single estimate cannot be applied to all contexts, and especially not a highly unstable crisis setting such as Yemen. While recent studies have aimed to derive context-specific incidence estimates in several countries, little has been done to estimate the incidence of both moderate and severe wasting in Yemen.MethodsIn order to provide context-specific estimates of the average duration of an episode, and resultingly, incidence correction factors for moderate and severe wasting, we have developed a Markov model. Model inputs were estimated using a combination of treatment admission and outcome records compiled by the Yemen Nutrition Cluster, 2018 and 2019 SMART surveys, and other estimates from the literature. The model derived estimates for the governorate of Lahj, Yemen; it was initialized using August 2018 SMART survey prevalence data and run until October 2019-the date of the subsequent SMART survey. Using a process of repeated model calibration, the incidence correction factors for severe wasting and moderate wasting were found, validating the resulting prevalence against the recorded value from the 2019 SMART survey.ResultsThe average durations of an episode of moderate and severe wasting were estimated at 4.86 months, for an incidence correction factor k of 2.59, and 3.86 months, for an incidence correction factor k of 3.11, respectively. It was found that the annual caseload of moderate wasting was 36% higher and the annual caseload of severe wasting 58% higher than the originally-assumed values, estimated with k = 1.6.ConclusionThe model-derived incidence rates, consistent with findings from other contexts that a global incidence correction factor cannot be sufficient, allow for improved, context-specific estimates of the burden of wasting in Yemen. In crisis settings such as Yemen where funding and resources are extremely limited, the model's outputs holistically capture the burden of wasting in a way that may guide effective decision-making and may help ensure that limited resources are allocated most effectively.
| S-EPMC8364017 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies continue to experience high annual losses that remain poorly explained. Numerous interacting factors have been linked to colony declines. Understanding the pathways linking pathophysiology with symptoms is an important step in understanding the mechanisms of disease. In this study we examined the specific pathologies associated with honey bees collected from colonies suffering from Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) and compared these with bees collected from apparently healthy colonies. We identified a set of pathological physical characteristics that occurred at different rates in CCD diagnosed colonies prior to their collapse: rectum distension, Malpighian tubule iridescence, fecal matter consistency, rectal enteroliths (hard concretions), and venom sac color. The multiple differences in rectum symptomology in bees from CCD apiaries and colonies suggest effected bees had trouble regulating water. To ensure that pathologies we found associated with CCD were indeed pathologies and not due to normal changes in physical appearances that occur as an adult bee ages (CCD colonies are assumed to be composed mostly of young bees), we documented the changes in bees of different ages taken from healthy colonies. We found that young bees had much greater incidences of white nodules than older cohorts. Prevalent in newly-emerged bees, these white nodules or cellular encapsulations indicate an active immune response. Comparing the two sets of characteristics, we determined a subset of pathologies that reliably predict CCD status rather than bee age (fecal matter consistency, rectal distension size, rectal enteroliths and Malpighian tubule iridescence) and that may serve as biomarkers for colony health. In addition, these pathologies suggest that CCD bees are experiencing disrupted excretory physiology. Our identification of these symptoms is an important first step in understanding the physiological pathways that underlie CCD and factors impacting bee health.
| S-EPMC5513415 | biostudies-other
Project description:In pesticide risk assessments, semifield studies, such as large-scale colony feeding studies (LSCFSs), are conducted to assess potential risks at the honey bee colony level. However, such studies are very cost and time intensive, and high overwintering losses of untreated control hives have been observed in some studies. Honey bee colony models such as BEEHAVE may provide tools to systematically assess multiple factors influencing colony outcomes, to inform study design, and to estimate pesticide impacts under varying environmental conditions. Before they can be used reliably, models should be validated to demonstrate they can appropriately reproduce patterns observed in the field. Despite the recognized need for validation, methodologies to be used in the context of applied ecological models are not agreed on. For the parameterization, calibration, and validation of BEEHAVE, we used control data from multiple LSCFSs. We conducted detailed visual and quantitative performance analyses as a demonstration of validation methodologies. The BEEHAVE outputs showed good agreement with apiary-specific validation data sets representing the first year of the studies. However, the simulations of colony dynamics in the spring periods following overwintering were identified as less reliable. The comprehensive validation effort applied provides important insights that can inform the usability of BEEHAVE in applications related to higher tier risk assessments. In addition, the validation methodology applied could be used in a wider context of ecological models. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:2269-2285. © 2020 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.
| S-EPMC7702171 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE: People who live under fragile living conditions may stay overnight in Internet cafés in urban areas. An outbreak of tuberculosis (TB), the routes of which were possibly related to such a facility, has been reported. The purpose of this study was to use a mathematical model to quantify the public health risk of TB infection in such a facility. METHODS: The reproduction number for airborne infection in an enclosed space (R (A)) was estimated using a Wells-Riley model. First, we estimated R (A) for the TB infection based on the report of the TB outbreak in the Internet café. Second, TB infectious dose, number of days of exposure, and air-exchange rate in the facility were varied to estimate the effect of TB risk settings and environmental factors. RESULTS: We assumed that TB patients and 59 susceptible subjects stayed for 150 days in a room where the air-exchange rate was five per hour. Using the estimated median R (A) of 44.14, the TB infection rate was 74.6%. This result was similar to the epidemiological report that the TB infection rate among employees in the Internet café was 70%. The median R (A) increased linearly as the number of days of exposure increased. The slope of the change in median R (A) divided by the change in the number of days of exposure increased exponentially as air-exchange rate decreased; thus air ventilation in a facility may be essential to prevent TB infection. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate air ventilation in facilities such as Internet cafés is needed as part of a TB-control program in metropolitan areas.
| S-EPMC2684774 | biostudies-other
Project description:The efficiency of the adaptive immune system is dependent on the diversity of T- and B-cell receptors, which is created by random rearrangement of receptor gene segments. AmpliCot is an experimental technique that allows the measurement of the diversity of the T- and B-cell repertoire. This procedure has the advantage over other cloning and sequencing techniques of being time- and expense-effective. In previous studies, receptor diversity, measured with AmpliCot, has been inferred assuming a second-order kinetics model. The latter implies that the relation between diversity and concentration × time (Cot) values is linear. We show that a more detailed model, involving heteroduplex and transient-duplex formation, leads to significantly better fits of experimental data and to nonlinear diversity-Cot relations. We propose an alternative fitting procedure, which is straightforward to apply and which gives an improved description of the relationship between Cot values and diversity.
| S-EPMC3433623 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCholesterylester transfer protein (CETP) modulates the composition of various lipoproteins associated with cardiovascular disease. Despite its central role in lipoprotein metabolism, its mode of action is still not fully understood. Here we present a simple way to estimate CETP-mediated lipid fluxes between different lipoprotein fractions.ResultsThe model derived adequately describes the observed findings, especially regarding low- and high dense lipoproteins (LDL and HDL), delivering correlation coefficients of R2?=?0.567 (p?<?0.001) and R2?=?0.466 (p?<?0.001), respectively. These estimated fluxes correlate best among all other measured concentrations and 'lipid per lipoprotein' ratios to the observed fluxes.ConclusionOur model approach is independent of CETP-action's exact mechanistic mode. It is simple and easy to apply, and may be a useful tool in revealing CETP's ambiguous role in lipid metabolism. The model mirrors a diffusion-like exchange of triglycerides between lipoproteins. Cholesteryl ester and triglyceride concentrations measured in HDL, LDL and VLDL are sufficient to apply the model on a plasma sample.
| S-EPMC6341636 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Healthcare professionals usually should make complex decisions with far reaching consequences and associated risks in health care fields. As it was demonstrated in other industries, the ability to drill down into pertinent data to explore knowledge behind the data can greatly facilitate superior, informed decisions to ensue the facts. Nature has always inspired researchers to develop models of solving the problems. Bee colony algorithm (BCA), based on the self-organized behavior of social insects is one of the most popular member of the family of population oriented, nature inspired meta-heuristic swarm intelligence method which has been proved its superiority over some other nature inspired algorithms. The objective of this model was to identify valid novel, potentially useful, and understandable correlations and patterns in existing data. This review employs a thematic analysis of online series of academic papers to outline BCA in medical hive, reducing the response and computational time and optimizing the problems. To illustrate the benefits of this model, the cases of disease diagnose system are presented.
| S-EPMC4236990 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Current bee population declines and colony failures are well documented yet poorly understood and no single factor has been identified as a leading cause. The evidence is equivocal and puzzling: for instance, many pathogens and parasites can be found in both failing and surviving colonies and field pesticide exposure is typically sublethal. Here, we investigate how these results can be due to sublethal stress impairing colony function. We mathematically modelled stress on individual bees which impairs colony function and found how positive density dependence can cause multiple dynamic outcomes: some colonies fail while others thrive. We then exposed bumblebee colonies to sublethal levels of a neonicotinoid pesticide. The dynamics of colony failure, which we observed, were most accurately described by our model. We argue that our model can explain the enigmatic aspects of bee colony failures, highlighting an important role for sublethal stress in colony declines.
| S-EPMC4299506 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Strength auditing of European honey bee (Apis mellifera Linnaeus, 1758 [Hymenoptera: Apidae]) colonies is critical for apiarists to manage colony health and meet pollination contracts conditions. Colony strength assessments used during pollination servicing in Australia typically use a frame-top cluster-count (Number of Frames) inspection. Sensing technology has potential to improve auditing processes, and commercial temperature sensors are widely available. We evaluate the use and placement of temperature sensing technology in colony strength assessment and identify key parameters linking temperature to colony strength. Custom-built temperature sensors measured hive temperature across the top of hive brood boxes. A linear mixed-effect model including harmonic sine and cosine curves representing diurnal temperature fluctuations in hives was used to compare Number of Frames with temperature sensor data. There was a significant effect of presence of bees on hive temperature and range: hives without bees recorded a 5.5°C lower mean temperature and greater temperature ranges than hives containing live bees. Hives without bees reach peak temperature earlier than hives with bees, regardless of colony strength. Sensor placement across the width of the hive was identified as an important factor when linking sensor data with colony strength. Data from sensors nearest to the hive geometric center were found to be more closely linked to colony strength. Furthermore, a one unit increase in Number of Frames was significantly associated with a mean temperature increase of 0.36°C. This demonstrates that statistical models that account for diurnal temperature patterns could be used to predict colony strength from temperature sensor data.
| S-EPMC9175291 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Continued loss of natural habitats with native prairies and wildflower patches is eliminating diverse sources of pollen, nectar and phytochemicals therein for foraging bees. The longstanding plant-pollinator mutualism reiterates the role of phytochemicals in sustaining plant-pollinator relationship and promoting honey bee health. We studied the effects of four phytochemicals-caffeine, gallic acid, kaempferol and p-coumaric acid, on survival and pathogen tolerance in the European honey bee, Apis mellifera (L.). We recorded longevity of worker bees that were provided ad libitum access to sugar solution supplemented with different concentrations of phytochemicals. We artificially infected worker bees with the protozoan parasite, Nosema ceranae. Infected bees were provided access to the same concentrations of the phytochemicals in the sugar solution, and their longevity and spore load at mortality were determined. Bees supplemented with dietary phytochemicals survived longer and lower concentrations were generally more beneficial. Dietary phytochemicals enabled bees to combat infection as seen by reduced spore-load at mortality. Many of the phytochemicals are plant defense compounds that pollinators have evolved to tolerate and derive benefits from. Our findings support the chemical bases of co-evolutionary interactions and reiterate the importance of diversity in floral nutrition sources to sustain healthy honey bee populations by strengthening the natural mutualistic relationships.
| S-EPMC6359238 | biostudies-literature