Dataset Information

Real-time analysis of the diphtheria outbreak in forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals in Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Between August and December 2017, more than 625,000 Rohingya from Myanmar fled into Bangladesh, settling in informal makeshift camps in Cox's Bazar district and joining 212,000 Rohingya already present. In early November, a diphtheria outbreak hit the camps, with 440 reported cases during the first month. A rise in cases during early December led to a collaboration between teams from Médecins sans Frontières-who were running a provisional diphtheria treatment centre-and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine with the goal to use transmission dynamic models to forecast the potential scale of the outbreak and the resulting resource needs.

Methods

We first adjusted for delays between symptom onset and case presentation using the observed distribution of reporting delays from previously reported cases. We then fit a compartmental transmission model to the adjusted incidence stratified by age group and location. Model forecasts with a lead time of 2 weeks were issued on 12, 20, 26 and 30 December and communicated to decision-makers.

Results

The first forecast estimated that the outbreak would peak on 19 December in Balukhali camp with 303 (95% posterior predictive interval 122-599) cases and would continue to grow in Kutupalong camp, requiring a bed capacity of 316 (95% posterior predictive interval (PPI) 197-499). On 19 December, a total of 54 cases were reported, lower than forecasted. Subsequent forecasts were more accurate: on 20 December, we predicted a total of 912 cases (95% PPI 367-2183) and 136 (95% PPI 55-327) hospitalizations until the end of the year, with 616 cases actually reported during this period.

Conclusions

Real-time modelling enabled feedback of key information about the potential scale of the epidemic, resource needs and mechanisms of transmission to decision-makers at a time when this information was largely unknown. By 20 December, the model generated reliable forecasts and helped support decision-making on operational aspects of the outbreak response, such as hospital bed and staff needs, and with advocacy for control measures. Although modelling is only one component of the evidence base for decision-making in outbreak situations, suitable analysis and forecasting techniques can be used to gain insights into an ongoing outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Finger F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6413455 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionRohingya- the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN)- are largely characterized by a high total fertility rate (TFR) and a low contraceptive prevalence rate. This study aimed to explore the reasons behind their high fertility behavior by utilizing the Theory of Planned Behavior.Data and methodWe adopted a cross-sectional qualitative research approach. Fifteen semi-structured, face-to-face in-depth interviews were conducted with the Rohingya husbands, wives, and community leaders (Majhi and Imam/Khatib) living in Camps 1 and 2 of Ukhiya Refugee Camp, Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. We analyzed the qualitative data using the thematic analysis approach.ResultsThe Muslim-majority FDMN predominantly constructed the fertility outcome as the will and order of Allah. On the one hand, the Rohingya parents highlighted various religious, political, economic, and social advantages of having more children, especially sons. On the other hand, beliefs about religious restriction, fear of side effects, and community pressure against contraception sustained the reality of the low contraceptive prevalence rate in the community. Alarmingly, the Rohingya religious leaders and mass people were found highly politically motivated to continue the practice of high fertility with a view to 'expanding the Rohingya community' or 'to increase Muslim soldiers', so that they may fight back and take control of their ancestors' place in Myanmar in the future. Furthermore, these pronatalist attitudes and beliefs translated into high TFR through various high-fertility-supportive social norms and practices widely prevalent in the Rohingya community. These include child marriage, gendered division of labor, women's subordinate nature, the Purdah system, and joint-family members' support during childbirth and rearing.ConclusionReligion, ethnic identity, and the unique political context and experiences of the Rohingya people jointly explain their high fertility behavior. This study warrants the urgency of initiating social and behavior change communication programs to change the religiopolitically-motivated high-fertility notions that prevailed in the Rohingya community.

Project description:BackgroundSeveral refugee settlements in Bangladesh have provided housing and medical care for the forcibly-displaced Myanmar nationals (FDMN, also known as Rohingya) population. The identification of malaria infection status in the refugee settlements is useful in treating infected persons and in developing malaria prevention recommendations. Assays for Plasmodium antigens and human IgG against Plasmodium parasites can be used as indicators to determine malaria infection status and exposure.MethodsDried blood spot (DBS) samples (N = 1239) from a household survey performed April-May 2018 in three settlements in Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh were utilized for a sample population of children from ages 1-14 years of age. The samples were tested using a bead-based multiplex antigen assay for presence of the pan-Plasmodium antigen aldolase as well as Plasmodium falciparum histidine rich protein 2 (HRP2). A bead-based multiplex assay was also used to measure human IgG antibody response to P. falciparum, Plasmodium malariae, and Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein 1 antigen (MSP1) isoforms, and P. falciparum antigens LSA1, CSP, and GLURP-R0.ResultsThere were no detectable Plasmodium antigens in any samples, suggesting no active malaria parasite infections in the tested children. IgG seroprevalence was highest to P. vivax (3.1%), but this was not significantly different from the percentages of children antibody responses to P. falciparum (2.1%) and P. malariae (1.8%). The likelihood of an anti-Plasmodium IgG response increased with age for all three malaria species. Evidence of exposure to any malaria species was highest for children residing 8-10 months in the settlements, and was lower for children arriving before and after this period of time.ConclusionsAbsence of Plasmodium antigen in this population provides evidence that children in these three Bangladeshi refugee settlements did not have malaria at time of sampling. Higher rates of anti-malarial IgG carriage from children who were leaving Myanmar during the malaria high-transmission season indicate these migrant populations were likely at increased risk of malaria exposure during their transit.

Project description:ObjectivesThe study aimed to determine the seroprevalence, the fraction of asymptomatic infections, and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infections among the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMNs).DesignIt was a population-based two-stage cross-sectional study at the level of households.SettingThe study was conducted in December 2020 among household members of the FDMN population living in the 34 camps of Ukhia and Teknaf Upazila of Cox's Bazar district in Bangladesh.ParticipantsAmong 860 697 FDMNs residing in 187 517 households, 3446 were recruited for the study. One individual aged 1 year or older was randomly selected from each targeted household.Primary and secondary outcome measuresBlood samples from respondents were tested for total antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 using Wantai ELISA kits, and later positive samples were validated by Kantaro kits.ResultsMore than half (55.3%) of the respondents were females, aged 23 median (IQR 14-35) years and more than half (58.4%) had no formal education. Overall, 2090 of 3446 study participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibody. The weighted and test adjusted seroprevalence (95% CI) was 48.3% (45.3% to 51.4%), which did not differ by the sexes. Children (aged 1-17 years) had a significantly lower seroprevalence 38.6% (95% CI 33.8% to 43.4%) compared with adults (58.1%, 95% CI 55.2% to 61.1%). Almost half (45.7%, 95% CI 41.9% to 49.5%) of seropositive individuals reported no relevant symptoms since March 2020. Antibody seroprevalence was higher in those with any comorbidity (57.8%, 95% CI 50.4% to 64.5%) than those without (47.2%, 95% CI 43.9% to 50.4%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis of all subjects identified increasing age and education as risk factors for seropositivity. In children (≤17 years), only age was significantly associated with the infection.ConclusionsIn December 2020, about half of the FDMNs had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, including those who reported no history of symptoms. Periodic serosurveys are necessary to recommend appropriate public health measures to limit transmission.