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Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease.

ABSTRACT: Emerging infectious diseases increasingly threaten wildlife populations. Most studies focus on managing short-term epidemic properties, such as controlling early outbreaks. Predicting long-term endemic characteristics with limited retrospective data is more challenging. We used individual-based modeling informed by individual variation in pathogen load and transmissibility to predict long-term impacts of a lethal, transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations. For this, we employed approximate Bayesian computation to identify model scenarios that best matched known epidemiological and demographic system properties derived from 10 yr of data after disease emergence, enabling us to forecast future system dynamics. We show that the dramatic devil population declines observed thus far are likely attributable to transient dynamics (initial dynamics after disease emergence). Only 21% of matching scenarios led to devil extinction within 100 yr following devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) introduction, whereas DFTD faded out in 57% of simulations. In the remaining 22% of simulations, disease and host coexisted for at least 100 yr, usually with long-period oscillations. Our findings show that pathogen extirpation or host-pathogen coexistence are much more likely than the DFTD-induced devil extinction, with crucial management ramifications. Accounting for individual-level disease progression and the long-term outcome of devil-DFTD interactions at the population-level, our findings suggest that immediate management interventions are unlikely to be necessary to ensure the persistence of Tasmanian devil populations. This is because strong population declines of devils after disease emergence do not necessarily translate into long-term population declines at equilibria. Our modeling approach is widely applicable to other host-pathogen systems to predict disease impact beyond transient dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Wells K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6415924 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease.

Wells Konstans K Hamede Rodrigo K RK Jones Menna E ME Hohenlohe Paul A PA Storfer Andrew A McCallum Hamish I HI

Ecology 20190215 3

Emerging infectious diseases increasingly threaten wildlife populations. Most studies focus on managing short-term epidemic properties, such as controlling early outbreaks. Predicting long-term endemic characteristics with limited retrospective data is more challenging. We used individual-based modeling informed by individual variation in pathogen load and transmissibility to predict long-term impacts of a lethal, transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations. For th ...[more]

PMID: 30636287

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Project description:Studies have shown an association between sensorimotor α-oscillation and pain perception. It suggests the potential use of neurofeedback (NFB) training for pain modulation through modifying sensorimotor α-oscillation. Here, a single-session NFB training protocol targeted on increasing sensorimotor α-oscillations was applied to forty-five healthy participants. Pain thresholds to nociceptive laser stimulations and pain ratings (intensity and unpleasantness) to identical laser painful stimulations were assessed immediately before and after NFB training. Participants had larger pain thresholds, but rated the identical painful laser stimulation as more unpleasant after NFB training. These pain measurements were further compared between participants with high or low NFB training efficacy that was quantified as the regression slope of α-oscillation throughout the ten training blocks. A significant increase in pain thresholds was observed among participants with high-efficacy; whereas a significant increase in pain ratings was observed among participants with low-efficacy. These results suggested that NFB training decreased the sensory-discriminative aspect of pain, but increased the affective-motivational aspect of pain, whereas both pain modulations were dependent upon the NFB training efficacy. Importantly, correlation analysis across all participants revealed that a greater NFB training efficacy predicted a greater increase in pain thresholds particularly at hand contralateral to NFB target site, but no significant correlation was observed between NFB training efficacy and modulation on pain ratings. It thus provided causal evidence for a link between sensorimotor α-oscillation and the sensory-discriminative aspect of pain, and highlighted the need for personalized neurofeedback for the benefits on pain modulation at the individual level. Future studies can adopt a double-blind sham-controlled protocol to validate NFB training induced pain modulation.

Project description:AimThis study aimed to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of emerging airborne viral infectious diseases outbreaks worldwide.Subject and methodsWe conducted a systematic literature review on outbreaks of emerging airborne viral infectious diseases and calculated outbreak number and intensity at the country level. Fisher's exact test was used to compare the viral infectious diseases outbreaks in different income-level regions. To identify the major airborne viral infectious diseases outbreaks, we ranked and extracted the leading viral infectious diseases in outbreak number and intensity in each country by year.ResultsA total of 2505 outbreaks were reported from 1873 to 2021 across 2010 studies. There were 47 countries (47/130, 36.15%) with more frequent emerging airborne viral infectious disease outbreaks (more than nine outbreaks), and these countries mainly distributed in high-income regions (22/47 countries, 46.81%, p < 0.05), especially in Western Europe (14/47 countries, 29.79%, p < 0.05). The number of overall outbreaks was more in the United States and China than in other countries in different years. Outbreaks of measles and influenza are always frequent and intense. Highly pathogenic human coronaviruses infection caused short-term pandemics during which their outbreak number and intensity exceeded other viruses. Rift valley fever outbreaks in the human population are spreading outside of Africa through the flow of goods and travelers.ConclusionCountries in high-income regions reported more emerging airborne viral infectious diseases outbreaks, especially in the Western European region, the United States, and China. It is urgent to strengthen collaborative surveillance of emerging airborne viruses, cross-border flow of goods and travelers, and ecological environment to avoid the spread of viral infectious diseases outbreaks worldwide.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01850-3.

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Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease.

Publications

Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease.

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