Dataset Information

The development and internal validation of a model to predict functional recovery after trauma.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To develop and internally validate the PROgnosis of functional recovery after Trauma (PRO-Trauma) prediction model.

Design

A prospective single-center longitudinal cohort study. Patients were assessed at 6 weeks and 12 months post-injury.

Methods

Patients that presented at the emergency department with an acute traumatic injury, were prompted for participation. Patients that completed the assessments at 6 weeks and 12 months post injury were included. Exclusion criteria: age < 18, age > 65, pathologic fractures, injuries that resulted in severe neurologic deficits. The predicted outcome, functional recovery, was defined as a Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment (SMFA-NL) Problems with Daily Activities (PDA) subscale ? 12.2 points at 12 months post-injury (Dutch population norm). Predictors were: gender, age, living with partner, number of chronic health conditions, SMFA-NL PDA score 6 weeks post-injury, ICU admission, length of stay in hospital, injury severity score, occurrence of complications and treatment type. All predictors were obtained before 6 weeks post-injury. Missing data were multiply imputed. Predictor variables were selected using backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression. Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were used to evaluate calibration. Bootstrap resampling was used to internally validate the final model.

Results

A total of 246 patients were included, of which 104 (44%) showed functional recovery. The predictors in the final PRO-Trauma model were: living with partner, the number of chronic health conditions, SMFA-NL PDA subscale score at 6 weeks post-injury and length of stay in hospital. The apparent R2 was 0.33 [0.33;0.34], the c-statistic was 0.79 [0.79;0.80]. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good calibration (p = 0.92). Optimism-corrected R2 was 0.28 [0.27;0.29] and the optimism-corrected Area Under the Curve was 0.77 [0.77;0.77].

Conclusion

The PRO-Trauma prediction model can be used to obtain valid predictions of attaining functional recovery after trauma at 12 months post-injury. The PRO-Trauma prediction model showed acceptable calibration and discrimination.

SUBMITTER: de Graaf MW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6417777 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The development and internal validation of a model to predict functional recovery after trauma.

de Graaf Max W MW Reininga Inge H F IHF Heineman Erik E El Moumni Mostafa M

PloS one 20190314 3

<h4>Objective</h4>To develop and internally validate the PROgnosis of functional recovery after Trauma (PRO-Trauma) prediction model.<h4>Design</h4>A prospective single-center longitudinal cohort study. Patients were assessed at 6 weeks and 12 months post-injury.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients that presented at the emergency department with an acute traumatic injury, were prompted for participation. Patients that completed the assessments at 6 weeks and 12 months post injury were included. Exclusion cr ...[more]

PMID: 30870451

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To develop and internally validate a prediction model for tinnitus recovery following unilateral cochlear implantation. DESIGN:A cross-sectional retrospective study. SETTING:A questionnaire concerning tinnitus was sent to patients with bilateral severe to profound hearing loss, who underwent unilateral cochlear implantation at the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2015. PARTICIPANTS:Of 137 included patients, 87 patients experienced tinnitus preoperatively. Data of these 87 patients were used to develop the prediction model. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:The outcome of the prediction model was tinnitus recovery. Investigated predictors were: age, gender, duration of deafness, preoperative hearing performance, tinnitus duration, severity and localisation, follow-up duration, localisation of cochlear implant (CI) compared with tinnitus side, surgical approach, insertion depth of the electrode, CI brand and difference in hearing threshold following cochlear implantation. Multivariable backward logistic regression was performed. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. The performance of the model was assessed by the calibrative and discriminative ability of the model. The prediction model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. RESULTS:The tinnitus recovery rate was 40%. A lower preoperative Consonant-Vowel-Consonant (CVC) score, unilateral localisation of tinnitus and larger deterioration of residual hearing at 250?Hz revealed to be relevant predictors for tinnitus recovery. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of the initial model was 0.722 (IQR: 0.703-0.729). After internal validation of this prediction model, the AUC decreased to 0.696 (IQR: 0.667-0.700). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE:Lower preoperative CVC score, unilateral localisation of tinnitus and larger deterioration of residual hearing at 250?Hz were significant predictors for tinnitus recovery following unilateral cochlear implantation. The performance of the model developed in this retrospective study is promising. However, before clinical use of the model, the conduction of a larger prospective study is recommended.

Project description:Importance:Prehospital trauma triage protocols are used worldwide to get the right patient to the right hospital and thereby improve the chance of survival and avert lifelong disabilities. The American College of Surgeons Committee on Trauma set target levels for undertriage rates of less than 5%. None of the existing triage protocols has been able to achieve this target in isolation. Objective:To develop and validate a new prehospital trauma triage protocol to improve current triage rates. Design, Setting, and Participants:In this multicenter cohort study, all patients with trauma who were 16 years and older and transported to a trauma center in 2 different regions of the Netherlands were included in the analysis. Data were collected from January 1, 2012, through June 30, 2014, in the Central Netherlands region for the design data cohort and from January 1 through December 31, 2015, in the Brabant region for the validation cohort. Data were analyzed from May 3, 2017, through July 19, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures:A new prediction model was developed in the Central Netherlands region based on prehospital predictors associated with severe injury. Severe injury was defined as an Injury Severity Score greater than 15. A full-model strategy with penalized maximum likelihood estimation was used to construct a model with 8 predictors that were chosen based on clinical reasoning. Accuracy of the developed prediction model was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. The model was externally validated in the Brabant region. Results:Using data from 4950 patients with trauma from the Central Netherlands region for the design data set (58.3% male; mean [SD] age, 47 [21] years) and 6859 patients for the validation Brabant region (52.2% male; mean [SD] age, 51 [22] years), the following 8 significant predictors were selected for the prediction model: age; systolic blood pressure; Glasgow Coma Scale score; mechanism criteria; penetrating injury to the head, thorax, or abdomen; signs and/or symptoms of head or neck injury; expected injury in the Abbreviated Injury Scale thorax region; and expected injury in 2 or more Abbreviated Injury Scale regions. The prediction model showed a C statistic of 0.823 (95% CI, 0.813-0.832) and good calibration. The cutoff point with a minimum specificity of 50.0% (95% CI, 49.3%-50.7%) led to a sensitivity of 88.8% (95% CI, 87.5%-90.0%). External validation showed a C statistic of 0.831 (95% CI, 0.814-0.848) and adequate calibration. Conclusions and Relevance:The new prehospital trauma triage prediction model may lower undertriage rates to approximately 10% with an overtriage rate of 50%. The next step should be to implement this prediction model with the use of a mobile app for emergency medical services professionals.

Dataset Information

The development and internal validation of a model to predict functional recovery after trauma.

Objective

Design

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The development and internal validation of a model to predict functional recovery after trauma.

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