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ABSTRACT: Background
Uncertain validity of epilepsy diagnoses within health insurance claims and other large datasets have hindered efforts to study and monitor care at the population level.Objectives
To develop and validate prediction models using longitudinal Medicare administrative data to identify patients with actual epilepsy among those with the diagnosis.Research design, subjects, measures
We used linked electronic health records and Medicare administrative data including claims to predict epilepsy status. A neurologist reviewed electronic health record data to assess epilepsy status in a stratified random sample of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65+ years between January 2012 and December 2014. We then reconstructed the full sample using inverse probability sampling weights. We developed prediction models using longitudinal Medicare data, then in a separate sample evaluated the predictive performance of each model, for example, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity.Results
Of 20,945 patients in the reconstructed sample, 2.1% had confirmed epilepsy. The best-performing prediction model to identify prevalent epilepsy required epilepsy diagnoses with multiple claims at least 60 days apart, and epilepsy-specific drug claims: AUROC=0.93 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.90-0.96], and with an 80% diagnostic threshold, sensitivity=87.8% (95% CI, 80.4%-93.2%), specificity=98.4% (95% CI, 98.2%-98.5%). A similar model also performed well in predicting incident epilepsy (k=0.79; 95% CI, 0.66-0.92).Conclusions
Prediction models using longitudinal Medicare data perform well in predicting incident and prevalent epilepsy status accurately.
SUBMITTER: Moura LMVR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6417929 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Moura Lidia M V R LMVR Smith Jason R JR Blacker Deborah D Vogeli Christine C Schwamm Lee H LH Cole Andrew J AJ Hernandez-Diaz Sonia S Hsu John J
Medical care 20190401 4
<h4>Background</h4>Uncertain validity of epilepsy diagnoses within health insurance claims and other large datasets have hindered efforts to study and monitor care at the population level.<h4>Objectives</h4>To develop and validate prediction models using longitudinal Medicare administrative data to identify patients with actual epilepsy among those with the diagnosis.<h4>Research design, subjects, measures</h4>We used linked electronic health records and Medicare administrative data including cl ...[more]