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Using mathematical modeling to inform health policy: A case study from voluntary medical male circumcision scale-up in eastern and southern Africa and proposed framework for success.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Modeling contributes to health program planning by allowing users to estimate future outcomes that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. However, modeling results are often not easily translated into practical policies. This paper examines the barriers and enabling factors that can allow models to better inform health decision-making. DESCRIPTION:The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) and its successor, DMPPT 2, are illustrative examples of modeling tools that have been used to inform health policy. Their use underpinned Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) scale-up for HIV prevention in southern and eastern Africa. Both examine the impact and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up, with DMPPT used initially in global advocacy and DMPPT 2 then providing VMMC coverage estimates by client age and subnational region for use in country-specific program planning. Their application involved three essential steps: identifying and engaging a wide array of stakeholders from the outset, reaching consensus on key assumptions and analysis plans, and convening data validation meetings with critical stakeholders. The subsequent DMPPT 2 Online is a user-friendly tool for in-country modeling analyses and continuous program planning and monitoring. LESSONS LEARNED:Through three iterations of the DMPPT applied to VMMC, a comprehensive framework with six steps was identified: (1) identify a champion, (2) engage stakeholders early and often, (3) encourage consensus, (4) customize analyses, (5), build capacity, and (6) establish a plan for sustainability. This framework could be successfully adapted to other HIV prevention programs to translate modeling results to policy and programming. CONCLUSIONS:Models can be used to mobilize support, strategically plan, and monitor key programmatic elements, but they can also help inform policy environments in which programs are conceptualized and implemented to achieve results. The ways in which modeling has informed VMMC programs and policy may be applicable to an array of other health interventions.

SUBMITTER: Njeuhmeli E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6422273 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using mathematical modeling to inform health policy: A case study from voluntary medical male circumcision scale-up in eastern and southern Africa and proposed framework for success.

Njeuhmeli Emmanuel E Schnure Melissa M Vazzano Andrea A Gold Elizabeth E Stegman Peter P Kripke Katharine K Tchuenche Michel M Bollinger Lori L Forsythe Steven S Hankins Catherine C

PloS one 20190318 3

<h4>Background</h4>Modeling contributes to health program planning by allowing users to estimate future outcomes that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. However, modeling results are often not easily translated into practical policies. This paper examines the barriers and enabling factors that can allow models to better inform health decision-making.<h4>Description</h4>The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) and its successor, DMPPT 2, are illustrative examples of modeling tools tha ...[more]

PMID: 30883583

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Project description:BACKGROUND: This paper proposes an approach to estimating the costs of demand creation for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) scale-up in 13 countries of eastern and southern Africa. It addresses two key questions: (1) what are the elements of a standardized package for demand creation? And (2) what challenges exist and must be taken into account in estimating the costs of demand creation? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a key informant study on VMMC demand creation using purposive sampling to recruit seven people who provide technical assistance to government programs and manage budgets for VMMC demand creation. Key informants provided their views on the important elements of VMMC demand creation and the most effective funding allocations across different types of communication approaches (e.g., mass media, small media, outreach/mobilization). The key finding was the wide range of views, suggesting that a standard package of core demand creation elements would not be universally applicable. This underscored the importance of tailoring demand creation strategies and estimates to specific country contexts before estimating costs. The key informant interviews, supplemented by the researchers' field experience, identified these issues to be addressed in future costing exercises: variations in the cost of VMMC demand creation activities by country and program, decisions about the quality and comprehensiveness of programming, and lack of data on critical elements needed to "trigger the decision" among eligible men. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this study's findings, we propose a seven-step methodological approach to estimate the cost of VMMC scale-up in a priority country, based on our key assumptions. However, further work is needed to better understand core components of a demand creation package and how to cost them. Notwithstanding the methodological challenges, estimating the cost of demand creation remains an essential element in deriving estimates of the total costs for VMMC scale-up in eastern and southern Africa.

Project description:BackgroundThe epidemiological and programmatic implications of inclusivity of HIV-positive males in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs are uncertain. We modeled these implications using Zambia as an illustrative example.Methods and findingsWe used the Age-Structured Mathematical (ASM) model to evaluate, over an intermediate horizon (2010-2025), the effectiveness (number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection) of VMMC scale-up scenarios with varying proportions of HIV-positive males. The model was calibrated by fitting to HIV prevalence time trend data from 1990 to 2014. We assumed that inclusivity of HIV positive males may benefit VMMC programs by increasing VMMC uptake among higher risk males, or by circumcision reducing HIV male-to-female transmission risk. All analyses were generated assuming no further antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. The number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection was projected to increase from 12.2 VMMCs per HIV infection averted, in a program that circumcises only HIV-negative males, to 14.0, in a program that includes HIV-positive males. The proportion of HIV-positive males was based on their representation in the population (e.g. 12.6% of those circumcised in 2010 would be HIV-positive based on HIV prevalence among males of 12.6% in 2010). However, if a program that only reaches out to HIV-negative males is associated with 20% lower uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 13.2 VMMCs per infection averted. If improved inclusivity of HIV-positive males is associated with 20% higher uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 12.4. As the assumed VMMC efficacy against male-to-female HIV transmission was increased from 0% to 20% and 46%, the effectiveness of circumcising regardless of HIV status improved from 14.0 to 11.5 and 9.1, respectively. The reduction in the HIV incidence rate among females increased accordingly, from 24.7% to 34.8% and 50.4%, respectively.ConclusionImproving inclusivity of males in VMMC programs regardless of HIV status increases VMMC effectiveness, if there is moderate increase in VMMC uptake among higher-risk males and/or if there is moderate efficacy for VMMC against male-to-female transmission. In these circumstances, VMMC programs can reduce the HIV incidence rate in males by nearly as much as expected by some ART programs, and additionally, females can benefit from the intervention nearly as much as males.

Project description:BackgroundIn 2007, the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries across eastern and southern Africa for scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services. Several years into this effort, we reflect on progress.MethodsUsing the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) 2.1, we assessed age-specific impact, cost-effectiveness, and coverage attributable to circumcisions performed through 2014. We also compared impact of actual progress to that of achieving 80% coverage among men ages 15-49 in 12 VMMC priority countries and Nyanza Province, Kenya. We populated the models with age-disaggregated VMMC service statistics and with population, mortality, and HIV incidence and prevalence projections exported from country-specific Spectrum/Goals files. We assumed each country achieved UNAIDS' 90-90-90 treatment targets.ResultsMore than 9 million VMMCs were conducted through 2014: 43% of the estimated 20.9 million VMMCs required to reach 80% coverage by the end of 2015. The model assumed each country reaches the UNAIDS targets, and projected that VMMCs conducted through 2014 will avert 240,000 infections by the end of 2025, compared to 1.1 million if each country had reached 80% coverage by the end of 2015. The median estimated cost per HIV infection averted was $4,400. Nyanza Province in Kenya, the 11 priority regions in Tanzania, and Uganda have reached or are approaching MC coverage targets among males ages 15-24, while coverage in other age groups is lower. Across all countries modeled, more than half of the projected HIV infections averted were attributable to circumcising 10- to 19-year-olds.ConclusionsThe priority countries have made considerable progress in VMMC scale-up, and VMMC remains a cost-effective strategy for epidemic impact, even assuming near-universal HIV diagnosis, treatment coverage, and viral suppression. Examining circumcision coverage by five-year age groups will inform countries' decisions about next steps.

Project description:The aim was (1) to perform an up-to-date systematic review of the male circumcision (MC) literature and (2) to determine the number of adverse medical conditions prevented by early MC in Australia. Searches of PubMed using “circumcision” with 39 keywords and bibliography searches yielded 278 publications meeting our inclusion criteria. Early MC provides immediate and lifetime benefits, including protection against: urinary tract infections, phimosis, inflammatory skin conditions, inferior penile hygiene, candidiasis, various STIs, and penile and prostate cancer. In female partners MC reduces risk of STIs and cervical cancer. A risk-benefit analysis found benefits exceeded procedural risks, which are predominantly minor, by approximately 200 to 1. It was estimated that more than 1 in 2 uncircumcised males will experience an adverse foreskin-related medical condition over their lifetime. An increase in early MC in Australia to mid-1950s prevalence of 85% from the current level of 18.75% would avoid 77,000 cases of infections and other adverse medical conditions over the lifetime for each annual birth cohort. Survey data, physiological measurements, and the anatomical location of penile sensory receptors responsible for sexual sensation indicate that MC has no detrimental effect on sexual function, sensitivity or pleasure. US studies found that early infant MC is cost saving. Evidence-based reviews by the AAP and CDC support early MC as a desirable public health measure. Although MC can be performed at any age, early MC maximizes benefits and minimises procedural risks. Parents should routinely be provided with accurate, up-to-date evidence-based information in an unbiased manner early in a pregnancy so that they have time to weigh benefits and risks of early MC and make an informed decision should they have a son. Parental choice should be respected. A well-trained competent practitioner is essential and local anaesthesia should be routinely used. Third party coverage of costs is advocated.

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Using mathematical modeling to inform health policy: A case study from voluntary medical male circumcision scale-up in eastern and southern Africa and proposed framework for success.

Publications

Using mathematical modeling to inform health policy: A case study from voluntary medical male circumcision scale-up in eastern and southern Africa and proposed framework for success.

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