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Minimizing the Sample Sizes of Clinical Trials on Preclinical and Early Symptomatic Stage of Alzheimer Disease.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Clinical trials of investigational drugs for Alzheimer disease (AD) increasingly focus on the prodromal (symptomatic) stage of the illness and now its preclinical (asymptomatic) stage. Sensitive and specific cognitive and functional endpoints are needed to track subtle cognitive and functional changes in the early and preclinical stages to minimize sample sizes in these trials. OBJECTIVES:To identify informative items in a standard clinical assessment protocol and a psychometric battery that are predictive of onset of dementia symptom. DESIGN:Longitudinal retrospective study. SETTING:Washington University (WU) Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center (ADRC). PARTICIPANTS:A total of 735 individuals at least 65 years old and cognitively normal at baseline from a longitudinal clinical cohort at the WU Knight ADRC. MEASUREMENTS:The annual clinical assessment included a wide spectrum of functional and cognitive domains; a comprehensive psychometric battery was completed about 2 weeks after the clinical evaluation. Psychometricians are blinded to the results of the clinical evaluation and to the prior performance of the participants on the psychometric tests. RESULTS:The mean age at baseline of the 735 participants was 74.30 and 62.31% were female. 240 individuals developed prodromal dementia symptoms (consistent with mild cognitive impairment due to AD and with very mild AD dementia) during longitudinal follow-up (mean follow-up=6.79 years). Among a total of 562 items in the clinical and cognitive assessments under analysis, 292 (52%) were identified as informative because their longitudinal changes were predictive of symptomatic onset. When these items were used to form the functional and cognitive composites, the longitudinal rates of changes were free of a learning effect and captured subtle longitudinal progression prior to symptomatic onset. The rates of change were much greater right after the symptomatic onset than those from the functional and cognitive composites formed using non-informative items. Although the sample sizes for prevention trials (prior to symptomatic onset) using the informative items still yield large numbers, the sample sizes for early treatment trial (after symptomatic onset) was much smaller than those derived from all the items or from the non-informative items alone. CONCLUSIONS:The antecedent longitudinal changes in nearly half of the items in a clinical assessment protocol and a comprehensive cognitive battery did not show statistically significant ability to predict the dementia symptom onset, and hence may be non-informative to track the preclinical functional and cognitive progression of AD. The remaining items, on the other hand, captured some of the preclinical changes prior to the symptom onset, but performed much better right after the symptom onset. Currently ongoing prevention trials on preclinical AD of elderly individuals may need to re-assess the sample sizes and statistical power.

SUBMITTER: Luo J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6429951 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Minimizing the Sample Sizes of Clinical Trials on Preclinical and Early Symptomatic Stage of Alzheimer Disease.

Luo J J Weng H H Morris J C JC Xiong C C

The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease 20180101 2

<h4>Background</h4>Clinical trials of investigational drugs for Alzheimer disease (AD) increasingly focus on the prodromal (symptomatic) stage of the illness and now its preclinical (asymptomatic) stage. Sensitive and specific cognitive and functional endpoints are needed to track subtle cognitive and functional changes in the early and preclinical stages to minimize sample sizes in these trials.<h4>Objectives</h4>To identify informative items in a standard clinical assessment protocol and a psy ...[more]

PMID: 29616704

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Project description:The number of people in the United States living with Alzheimer disease (AD) is growing, resulting in significant clinical and economic impact. Substantial research investment has led to drug development in stages of AD before symptomatic dementia, such as preclinical AD. Although there are no treatments approved for preclinical AD, there are currently 6 phase 3 clinical trials for preclinical AD treatments. In this article, we review these clinical trials and highlight considerations for future coverage decisions. In line with the definition of preclinical AD, enrollment in these trials focuses on cognitively unimpaired patients that are at high risk of AD because of family history and then genetic testing or brain imaging. Enrollment in most of these trials also allows for younger patients, including those aged under 65 years. Primary clinical trial endpoints focus on cognition often 4 or more years after treatment. Secondary endpoints include other measures of cognition and function, as well as biomarkers. Review of these trials brings to light a few potential considerations when covering these new medications in the future. First, novel and potentially costly approaches involving genetic testing and/or positron emission tomography imaging may be needed to identify appropriate patients and should be developed efficiently. Second, the long duration of these clinical trials suggest that there may be a need for alternative payment approaches in the United States that encourage early payers to pay for a medication for which the long-term benefits may not be realized until after the beneficiary is no longer with the health plan. Third, the value of AD treatments may differ across populations, creating a potential role for indication-based or population-based contracting. Finally, considering the potentially high budgetary impact and little real-world evidence for a new drug class, payers and manufacturers may want to consider outcomes-based payment approaches and coverage with evidence development to mitigate uncertainty about the value of the treatment demonstrated in well-defined populations in clinical trials versus more heterogeneous real-world settings. DISCLOSURES: This work was funded through a generous gift from the Global CEO Initiative on Alzheimer Disease. Hung reports grants from Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America outside the submitted work and past employment at CVS Health and BlueCross BlueShield Association. McClellan is an independent board member on the boards of Johnson & Johnson, Cigna, Alignment Healthcare, and Seer; co-chairs the Accountable Care Learning Collaborative and the Guiding Committee for the Health Care Payment Learning and Action Network; and receives fees for serving as an advisor for Cota and MITRE. Hamilton Lopez and Schneider have nothing to disclose. Part of this work was presented at the 2019 AMCP Nexus Meeting, October 29-November 1, 2019, in National Harbor, MD.

Project description:ImportanceThere are limited efficacious treatments for Alzheimer disease.ObjectiveTo assess efficacy and adverse events of donanemab, an antibody designed to clear brain amyloid plaque.Design, setting, and participantsMulticenter (277 medical research centers/hospitals in 8 countries), randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 18-month phase 3 trial that enrolled 1736 participants with early symptomatic Alzheimer disease (mild cognitive impairment/mild dementia) with amyloid and low/medium or high tau pathology based on positron emission tomography imaging from June 2020 to November 2021 (last patient visit for primary outcome in April 2023).InterventionsParticipants were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive donanemab (n = 860) or placebo (n = 876) intravenously every 4 weeks for 72 weeks. Participants in the donanemab group were switched to receive placebo in a blinded manner if dose completion criteria were met.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was change in integrated Alzheimer Disease Rating Scale (iADRS) score from baseline to 76 weeks (range, 0-144; lower scores indicate greater impairment). There were 24 gated outcomes (primary, secondary, and exploratory), including the secondary outcome of change in the sum of boxes of the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale (CDR-SB) score (range, 0-18; higher scores indicate greater impairment). Statistical testing allocated α of .04 to testing low/medium tau population outcomes, with the remainder (.01) for combined population outcomes.ResultsAmong 1736 randomized participants (mean age, 73.0 years; 996 [57.4%] women; 1182 [68.1%] with low/medium tau pathology and 552 [31.8%] with high tau pathology), 1320 (76%) completed the trial. Of the 24 gated outcomes, 23 were statistically significant. The least-squares mean (LSM) change in iADRS score at 76 weeks was -6.02 (95% CI, -7.01 to -5.03) in the donanemab group and -9.27 (95% CI, -10.23 to -8.31) in the placebo group (difference, 3.25 [95% CI, 1.88-4.62]; P < .001) in the low/medium tau population and -10.2 (95% CI, -11.22 to -9.16) with donanemab and -13.1 (95% CI, -14.10 to -12.13) with placebo (difference, 2.92 [95% CI, 1.51-4.33]; P < .001) in the combined population. LSM change in CDR-SB score at 76 weeks was 1.20 (95% CI, 1.00-1.41) with donanemab and 1.88 (95% CI, 1.68-2.08) with placebo (difference, -0.67 [95% CI, -0.95 to -0.40]; P < .001) in the low/medium tau population and 1.72 (95% CI, 1.53-1.91) with donanemab and 2.42 (95% CI, 2.24-2.60) with placebo (difference, -0.7 [95% CI, -0.95 to -0.45]; P < .001) in the combined population. Amyloid-related imaging abnormalities of edema or effusion occurred in 205 participants (24.0%; 52 symptomatic) in the donanemab group and 18 (2.1%; 0 symptomatic during study) in the placebo group and infusion-related reactions occurred in 74 participants (8.7%) with donanemab and 4 (0.5%) with placebo. Three deaths in the donanemab group and 1 in the placebo group were considered treatment related.Conclusions and relevanceAmong participants with early symptomatic Alzheimer disease and amyloid and tau pathology, donanemab significantly slowed clinical progression at 76 weeks in those with low/medium tau and in the combined low/medium and high tau pathology population.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04437511.

Project description:BackgroundTrials in Alzheimer's disease are increasingly focusing on prevention in asymptomatic individuals. This poses a challenge in examining treatment effects since currently available approaches are often unable to detect cognitive and functional changes among asymptomatic individuals. Resultant small effect sizes require large sample sizes using biomarkers or secondary measures for randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Better assessment approaches and outcomes capable of capturing subtle changes during asymptomatic disease stages are needed.ObjectiveWe aimed to develop a new approach to track changes in functional outcomes by using individual-specific distributions (as opposed to group-norms) of unobtrusive continuously monitored in-home data. Our objective was to compare sample sizes required to achieve sufficient power to detect prevention trial effects in trajectories of outcomes in two scenarios: (1) annually assessed neuropsychological test scores (a conventional approach), and (2) the likelihood of having subject-specific low performance thresholds, both modeled as a function of time.MethodsOne hundred nineteen cognitively intact subjects were enrolled and followed over 3 years in the Intelligent Systems for Assessing Aging Change (ISAAC) study. Using the difference in empirically identified time slopes between those who remained cognitively intact during follow-up (normal control, NC) and those who transitioned to mild cognitive impairment (MCI), we estimated comparative sample sizes required to achieve up to 80% statistical power over a range of effect sizes for detecting reductions in the difference in time slopes between NC and MCI incidence before transition.ResultsSample size estimates indicated approximately 2000 subjects with a follow-up duration of 4 years would be needed to achieve a 30% effect size when the outcome is an annually assessed memory test score. When the outcome is likelihood of low walking speed defined using the individual-specific distributions of walking speed collected at baseline, 262 subjects are required. Similarly for computer use, 26 subjects are required.ConclusionsIndividual-specific thresholds of low functional performance based on high-frequency in-home monitoring data distinguish trajectories of MCI from NC and could substantially reduce sample sizes needed in dementia prevention RCTs.

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Minimizing the Sample Sizes of Clinical Trials on Preclinical and Early Symptomatic Stage of Alzheimer Disease.

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Minimizing the Sample Sizes of Clinical Trials on Preclinical and Early Symptomatic Stage of Alzheimer Disease.

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